Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities

by Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.

• ISBN13: 9780309097345
• ISBN10: 0309097347
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-04-01
• Publisher: Natl Academy Pr

Summary

Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. Terrorists attack, diseases strike, accidents happen, and we never know if we'll be that one in a million statistic.

Table of Contents

Surrounded by Randomness: Probabilities Everywhere	1	(6)
What Are the Odds of That? Coincidence and Surprise	7	(16)
Laying Down the Law: Why Casinos Always Win	23	(21)
Dealing the Cards: Bridge, Poker, and Blackjack	44	(19)
Murder Most Foul: Measuring Trends	63	(15)
Utility Functions: How to Make Decisions	78	(18)
White Lab Coats: What Studies Do and Don't Show	96	(21)
Ain't Gonna Happen: Very Low Probabilities	117	(16)
Interlude: The Case of the Collapsing Casino	133	(12)
Fifty-one Percent to Forty-nine Percent: The True Meaning of Polls	145	(18)
Nineteen Times Out of Twenty: Margins of Error	163	(13)
Randomness to the Rescue: When Uncertainty Is Your Friend	176	(17)
Evolution, Genes, and Viruses: Randomness in Biology	193	(13)
That Wily Monty Hall: Finding Probabilities from Clues	206	(14)
Spam, Spam, Probability, and Spam: Blocking Unwanted E-mail	220	(14)
Ignorance, Chaos, and Quantum Mechanics: Causes of Randomness	234	(13)
Final Exam: Do You Have Probability Perspective?	247	(8)
Acknowledgments	255	(2)
About the Author	257	(2)
Index	259