Sustaining U.S. Nuclear Submarine Design Capabilities, Executive Summary

by Schank, John F.; Arena, Mark V.; DeLuca, Paul; Riposo, Jessie; Curry, Kimberly

• ISBN13: 9780833041616
• ISBN10: 0833041614
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2007-05-19
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Nuclear submarine design resources at the shipyards, their suppliers, and the Navy may erode for lack of demand. Analysis of alternative workforce and workload management options suggests that the U.S. Navy should stretch out the design of the next submarine class and start it early or sustain design resources above the current demand, so that the next class may be designed on time, on budget, and with low risk.

Table of Contents

Introduction	p. 1
What Should Be Done About the Current Gap Between Submarine Design Efforts?	p. 1
Motivators of New Submarine Design Have Evolved	p. 2
Framing the Shipyard Analysis	p. 5
Step 1: Predict Design Demand	p. 5
Step 2: Formulate Supply Options	p. 6
Step 3: Estimate Costs of Supply Options	p. 8
The Results of the Analysis Should Be Interpreted with Caution	p. 10
Workforce Levels and Costs for the Shipyards	p. 11
What Size Design Workforce Is Least Costly for Different Yards and Workloads?	p. 11
Stretching the Work Results in Further Savings; Splitting the Work Does Not	p. 13
How Sensitive Are the Results to Variations in Assumed Parameters?	p. 15
Sustaining the Skills of a Workforce in Excess of Demand Is Problematic	p. 16
Critical Skills at the Shipyards	p. 17
Hundreds of Technical Skills Are Required to Design a Submarine	p. 17
The Skills of a Sustained Workforce Might Follow Their Distribution for the Virginia-Class Design	p. 18
But a Variety of Factors Should Be Taken into Account	p. 18
Suppliers	p. 21
How Will Suppliers to the Shipyards Weather the Design Gap?	p. 21
Some Suppliers Might Not Be Able to Offer Continued Support	p. 23
Options Addressing Supplier Risk Need to Be Tailored to the Vendor	p. 24
Effect of a Design Gap on Navy Resources	p. 25
The Navy Holds Key Design Roles	p. 25
Navy Design Activities Are Carried Out Mainly by the Naval Sea Systems Command and the Warfare Centers	p. 26
NAVSEA Would Not Lose Personnel but Could Lose Some Expertise	p. 27
The Warfare Centers Need at Least $30 Million per Year to Keep from Losing Skilled Design Professionals	p. 27
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 31
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