Systems Approach to Management of Disasters Methods and Applications

by Simonovic , Slobodan P.

• ISBN13: 9780470528099
• ISBN10: 0470528095
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2010-12-01
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

The main goal of this text is to introduce the systems approach to disasters management community as an alternative approach that can provide support for interdisciplinary activities involved in the management of disasters. The systems approach draws on the fields of operations research and economics to create skills in solving complex management problems. The text is organized into four parts. Part I provides an introductory discussion of disaster management including an overview of the main terms used. Part II is devoted to the introduction of systems theory, mathematical formalization and classification of methods. The material presented in this section should be of practical relevance during the process of selecting an appropriate tool for the solution of a problem. Part III is technical in nature, providing a simulation approach and a detailed description of system dynamics simulation. This section details two areas of application: flood evacuation simulation, and disaster risk assessment. Part IV ends with a chapter covering steps to improve disaster management. Finally parts of the book can be used as a tool for specialized short courses for practitioners. For example a course on ls"System analysis for emergency management optimizationrs" could be based on Chapters 3, 4 and parts of Chapter 6.Included in the book is a CD with three computer programs Vensim PLE, LINPRO, and COMPRO. Vensim PLE (Personal Learning Edition) is state-of-the-art simulation software used for the implementation of system dynamics simulation. The other two programs are: LINPRO, a linear programming optimization tool; and COMPRO, for the implementation of the multi-objective analysis tool of compromise programming.

Author Biography

Slobodan P. Simonovic is a Professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and an Engineering Research Chair of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction at the University of Western Ontario. He teaches courses in civil engineering systems, water resources systems, and disaster management. He actively works for national and international professional organizations and has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research, and outreach. He has also been invited to present special courses for practicing water and disaster managers in many countries.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables	p. xiii
About the Author	p. xix
Foreword	p. xxi
Preface	p. xxv
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations	p. xxxiii
Management of Disasters	p. 1
Introduction	p. 3
Issues in Management of Disasters-Personal Experience	p. 6
Red River Flooding	p. 6
"Red River Flood of the Century," Manitoba, Canada	p. 9
Tools for Management of Disasters-Two New Paradigms	p. 19
The Complexity Paradigm	p. 21
The Uncertainty Paradigm	p. 24
Conclusions	p. 26
References	p. 27
Exercises	p. 29
Integrated Disaster Management	p. 30
Definition	p. 30
Integrated Disaster Management Activities	p. 31
Mitigation	p. 31
Preparedness	p. 39
Response	p. 40
Recovery	p. 40
Disaster Management in Canada-Brief Overview	p. 41
Emergency Management Act	p. 42
National Disaster Mitigation Strategy	p. 42
Joint Emergency Preparedness Program	p. 43
Emergency Response	p. 44
The Role of Federal Government in Disaster Recovery	p. 45
Decision Making and Integrated Disaster Management	p. 46
Individual Decision Making	p. 47
Decision Making in Organizations	p. 47
Decision Making in Government	p. 47
Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management	p. 48
References	p. 49
Exercises	p. 50
Systems Analaysis for Integrated Management of Disasters	p. 51
Systems Thinking and Integrated Disaster Management	p. 53
System Definitions	p. 54
What is a System?	p. 55
Systems Thinking	p. 56
Systems Analysis	p. 59
The Systems Approach	p. 60
Systems "Engineering"	p. 60
Feedback	p. 61
Mathematical Modeling	p. 66
A Classification of Systems	p. 68
A Classification of Mathematical Models	p. 70
Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management	p. 70
A Systems Typology in Integrated Disaster Management	p. 71
Systems View of Disaster Management	p. 73
Systems View of Disaster Management Activities	p. 76
Systems Formulation Examples	p. 77
Dynamics of Epidemics	p. 78
Shortest Supply Route	p. 80
Resources Allocation	p. 81
References	p. 82
Exercises	p. 83
Introduction to Methods and Tools for a Systems Approach to Management of Disaster	p. 85
Simulation	p. 85
System Dynamics Simulation	p. 89
Optimization	p. 92
Multiobjective Analysis	p. 95
Disaster Risk Management	p. 97
Sources of Uncertainty	p. 98
Conceptual Risk Definitions	p. 100
Probabilistic Approach	p. 102
A Fuzzy Set Approach	p. 103
Computer Support: Decision Support Systems	p. 106
References	p. 109
Exercises	p. 111
Implementation of Systems Analysis to Management of Disasters	p. 113
Simulation	p. 115
Definitions	p. 115
System Dynamics Simulation	p. 116
Introduction	p. 116
System Structure and Patterns of Behavior	p. 117
System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Process	p. 126
Causal Loop Diagram	p. 127
Stock and Flow Diagram	p. 131
Generic Principles of System Dynamics Simulation Modeling	p. 133
Numerical Simulation	p. 137
Policy Design and Evaluation-Model Use	p. 141
System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Examples	p. 141
A Simple Flu Epidemic Model	p. 142
A More Complex Flu Epidemic Model with Recovery	p. 146
An Example of Disaster Management Simulation-Flood Evacuation Simulation Model	p. 152
Introduction	p. 152
Human Behavior During Disasters	p. 153
A System Dynamics Simulation Model	p. 154
Application of the Evacuation Model to the Analyses of Flood Emergency Procedures in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada	p. 162
Conclusions	p. 171
References	p. 172
Exercises	p. 172
Optimization	p. 175
Linear Programming	p. 178
Formulation of Linear Optimization Models	p. 178
Algebraic Representations of Linear Optimization Models	p. 182
The Simplex Method for Solving Linear Programs	p. 186
Completeness of the Simplex Algorithm	p. 190
The Big M Method	p. 193
Duality in LP	p. 196
Sensitivity Analysis	p. 198
Special Types of LP Problems-Transportation Problem	p. 202
Formulation of the Transportation Problem	p. 202
Solution of the Transportation Problem	p. 207
Special Types of LP Problems-Network Problems	p. 213
The Shortest Path Problem	p. 217
The Minimum Spanning Tree Problem	p. 219
The Maximum Flow Problem	p. 223
An Example of Disaster Management Optimization-The Optimal Placement of Casualty Evacuation Assets	p. 229
Introduction	p. 229
The OPTEVAC Model	p. 230
A Casualty Evacuation Example	p. 231
Summary	p. 234
References	p. 234
Exercises	p. 235
Multiobjective Analysis	p. 242
Introduction	p. 243
Toward Operational Framework for Multiobjective Analysis	p. 243
An Illustrative Example	p. 244
Multiobjective Analysis Methodology	p. 249
Change of Concept	p. 251
Nondominated Solutions	p. 251
Participation of Decision Makers	p. 254
Classification of Multiobjective Techniques	p. 255
Disaster Management Applications	p. 259
The Weighting Method	p. 263
The Compromise Programming Method	p. 268
Compromise Programming	p. 268
Some Practical Recommendations	p. 273
The COMPRO Computer Program	p. 273
An Example of Disaster Management Multiobjective Analysis-Selection of Flood Management Alternative	p. 274
Preparation of Input Data	p. 274
Solution of Flood Management Problem Using Compromise Programming	p. 275
Summary	p. 279
References	p. 279
Exercises	p. 281
Be Prepared	p. 285
A View Ahead	p. 287
Issues in Future Disaster Management	p. 289
Climate Change	p. 289
Population Growth and Migrations	p. 291
A Systems View	p. 292
References	p. 293
Index	p. 295
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