Terrorism Risk Modeling For Intelligence Analysis And Infrastructure Protection

by Willis, Henry H.; Latourrette, Tom; Kelly, Terrence K.; Hickey, Scot; Neill, Samuel

• ISBN13: 9780833039743
• ISBN10: 0833039741
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2007-10-01
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. The authors show how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk across cities and within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis.

Table of Contents

Terrorism Risk Models for the Insurance Industry: A New Resource for Intelligence Analysts	p. 1
Terrorism Risk Modeling for the Insurance Industry: The RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model	p. 5
Application 1: Terrorism Risk in UASI Areas	p. 15
Application 2: Profiling Terrorism Risk in Las Vegas	p. 29
Application 3: Informing Threat Assessment Using the RMS Terrorism Risk Model	p. 45
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 51
RMS Terrorism Advisors' Network	p. 57
City Tiers and Likelihoods from the RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model	p. 59
Definitions of Fiscal Year 2005 UASI-Eligible Urban Areas	p. 61
Example of Filtering Risk-Analysis Results Using Intelligence Assessments of Terrorist Capabilities	p. 65
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