Transforming the Rural Asian Economy The Unfinished Revolution

by Rosegrant, Mark W.; Hazell, Peter B. R.

• ISBN13: 9780195924480
• ISBN10: 0195924487
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-02-15
• Publisher: Asian Development Bank Press

Summary

Over the past three decades the rural Asian economy has experienced a dramatic transformation. In most countries the speed and level of development have far exceeded expectations. This book describes this "quiet revolution" with an emphasis on policies and strategies and their impact on agricultural and economic growth, poverty, and the environment.

Table of Contents

Foreword	xiii
Preface	xvii
Introduction	xix
Agricultural Growth and the Economic Transformation	1	(28)
Introduction	1	(4)
Sources of Economic Growth in Asia	5	(4)
Explaining Economic Growth	9	(9)
Prudent Macroeconimic Policies	11	(1)
Market-oriented Policies	11	(1)
Open Trade Policies	12	(1)
Industrial Policy	13	(2)
Investment in Education	15	(1)
Institutional Issues	16	(2)
Importance of Agriculture in Promoting the Transformation	18	(8)
Changing Role of the Agricultural Sector	26	(1)
Conclusions	27	(2)
Growth and Policies for Poverty Reduction	29	(28)
Introduction	29	(1)
Trends in Total Poverty	30	(3)
Trends in Rural Poverty	33	(3)
Growth and Poverty Reduction in Asia	36	(4)
Beyond Growth: Policies for Poverty Reduction	40	(13)
Education	41	(2)
Health and Nutrition	43	(1)
Rural Infrastructure	44	(2)
Land Reform	46	(2)
Safety-Net Programs	48	(5)
Conclusions	53	(4)
Agricultural Diversification and Commercialization	57	(24)
Introduction	57	(1)
Structural Change in Agriculture	57	(9)
Commercialization and Diversification	66	(7)
Agricultural Research	66	(1)
Economic Liberalization	67	(1)
Rural Financial Markets	68	(4)
Rural Infrastructure	72	(1)
Property Rights	73	(1)
Agricultural Commercialization and Diversification and the Poor	73	(5)
Impact of Technological Change	74	(1)
Impact of Commercialization	74	(3)
Regional Disparities	77	(1)
Conclusion	78	(3)
The Rural Nonfarm Transformation	81	(42)
Introduction	81	(1)
Importance of Rural Nonfarm Activities	82	(10)
Definitions	82	(1)
Employment Shares	82	(3)
Income Shares	85	(2)
Importance to Women	87	(2)
Importance to the Poor	89	(3)
Structural Transformation of the Rural Nonfarm Economy	92	(12)
Overview	92	(1)
Changes in the Composition of the Rural Nonfarm Economy	93	(3)
Changes in the Spatial Structure of Rural Economies	96	(4)
Changes in Local Labor and Capital Markets	100	(3)
Impact on the Poor	103	(1)
Determinants of the Transformation	104	(15)
Agricultural Growth	106	(4)
Population Density	110	(1)
Rural Towns	111	(1)
Rural Infrastructure	112	(2)
Macro and Trade Policies	114	(1)
Rural Industrialization Policies	115	(4)
Conclusions	119	(4)
Sources of Agricultural Growth	123	(38)
Introduction	123	(1)
Agricultural Output and Input Growth	124	(15)
Input Use Trends	125	(9)
Land and Labor Productivity Growth	134	(5)
Patterns of Public Spending on Agriculture	139	(8)
Size and Trends in Public Expenditure	140	(4)
Public Expenditures on Subsidies and Investments	144	(3)
Sources of Growth in Asian Agriculture	147	(13)
Conclusions	160	(1)
The Evolution of Cereal and Livestock Supply and Demand: Policies to Meet New Challenges	161	(30)
Introduction	161	(1)
Evolution of Cereal and Livestock Demand	162	(5)
Trends in Cereal Demand	163	(2)
Growth in Demand for Livestock Products	165	(2)
Evolution of Cereal Production: Trends, Challenges, and Policies	167	(11)
Challenges in Sustaining Cereal Production	169	(3)
Policies for the Crop Sector	172	(6)
Evolution of Livestock Production: Trends, Challenges, and Policies	178	(11)
Challenges for Increasing Livestock Production	180	(5)
Policies for the Livestock Sector	185	(4)
Conclusions	189	(2)
Impact of Trade, Macroeconomic, and Price Policy on Agriculture	191	(28)
Introduction	191	(2)
Historical Patterns of Agricultural Protection	193	(3)
Trade, Macroeconomic, and Price Policies in Asia	196	(7)
GATT and WTO	203	(6)
Regional Trade Agreements	209	(4)
Structural Changes in International Agricultural Trade	213	(4)
Policy Reforms in Developed-Country Agriculture	214	(1)
Changes in the Nature of Agricultural Trade	214	(1)
International Price Variability	215	(2)
Conclusions	217	(2)
Economic Reform in Asia Transition Economies	219	(36)
Introduction	219	(3)
Initial Conditions and Exogenous Shocks	222	(7)
Agricultural Reform	229	(8)
State Enterprise Reform	237	(5)
Trade, Macroeconomic, and Stabilization Policies	242	(4)
Provision of Social Protection During Transition	246	(3)
Environmental Protection During Transition	249	(1)
Lessons and Future Directions For Reform	250	(5)
The Financial and Economic Crisis in East and Southeast Asia	255	(34)
Introduction	255	(1)
Causes of the Crisis: Two Views	256	(10)
Development of the Crisis	257	(1)
Real Appreciation of Currencies	258	(1)
Large Current-Account Deficits	259	(1)
Large Short-term Capital Flows	259	(2)
Overborrowing and Overlending in the Financial Sector	261	(2)
The Onset of the Crisis	263	(3)
Impact of the Crisis	266	(9)
Social Impact of the Crisis	266	(1)
Declining Incomes	266	(2)
Rising Absolute Poverty	268	(1)
Increases in Malnutrition	269	(1)
Increased Pressure on Rural Areas	269	(1)
Declining Social Services---Threats to Education and Health	270	(2)
Impact on the Agricultural Sector	272	(3)
Lessons for Policy	275	(12)
Social Services and Safety Nets	275	(3)
Good Governance	278	(2)
Financial and Corporate Management	280	(1)
International Capital Flows	281	(2)
International Recovery Programs	283	(4)
Conclusions	287	(2)
Environmental and Resource Challenges to Future Growth	289	(34)
Introduction	289	(1)
Cropland---Will the Base for Food Supply Shrink or Expand?	290	(4)
Potential for Cropland Expansion	290	(1)
Loss of Cropland to Urbanization	291	(2)
Net Expansion/Loss of Cropland	293	(1)
Water Resources---Does Scarcity Endanger Future Food Supply?	294	(3)
Energy---Plentiful Enough to Support a Growing Food Supply?	297	(2)
Land Degradation---What Extent and Productivity Effects?	299	(6)
Extent of Land Degradation	300	(1)
Productivity Effects of Land Degradation	300	(5)
Improved Crop Productivity---The Key to a Secure Food Supply?	305	(10)
Fertilizer---Raising Yields or Damaging the Environment?	307	(3)
Plant Genetic Resources---A Narrowed Base?	310	(2)
Biotechnology---Higher Yield Ceilings?	312	(3)
Climate Change---Different Crop Productivity Effects for Developing vs. Developed World	315	(4)
Conclusions	319	(4)
Challenges for Less Favored Areas	323	(22)
Introduction	323	(1)
Extent of Poverty and Environmental Degradation in Less Favored Areas	324	(4)
Poverty and Productivity in the LFAs: Evidence of Links	326	(1)
Environmental Degradation in the LFAs: Outcome of Low Productivity and Expansion of Cropped Area	327	(1)
Returns to Public Investments in the LFAs	328	(5)
Returns on Investments in High-Potential Areas: New Realities Challenge Conventional Wisdom	329	(1)
Productivity and Poverty Impact of Investment in LFAs: Emerging Evidence	330	(3)
Strategies for Developing LFAs: Recognizing Commonality Amid Diversity	333	(10)
Promote Broad-Based Agricultural Development	335	(1)
Improve Technologies and Farming Systems	335	(1)
Ensure Equitable and Secure Access to Natural Resources	336	(3)
Ensure That Risks Are Managed Effectively	339	(1)
Invest in Rural Infrastructure and People	340	(1)
Provide the Right Policy Environment	341	(1)
Strengthen Public Institutions	342	(1)
Conclusions	343	(2)
Alternative Futures for Asian Agriculture and Food Security	345	(32)
Introduction	345	(1)
Global Trends---A Prominent Role for Asian Developing Economies	346	(2)
Alternative Scenarios for Agriculture in Developing Asia: Weak vs. Strong Investment/Policy Reform Strategies	348	(5)
Low Investment and Weak Policy Reform	349	(2)
High Investment and Strong Policy Reform	351	(2)
Alternative Scenarios: Impact on Rural Asian Food Markets and Food Security In 2010	353	(18)
Scenario Effects on Supply, Demand, and Net Trade	353	(13)
Scenario Effects on Food Security: Childhood Malnutrition	366	(5)
Can Childhood Malnutrition in Asia Be Eliminated by 2010?	371	(3)
Conclusions	374	(3)
Lessons Leaned	377	(76)
Introduction	377	(1)
Agricultural Growth: An Engine for Asia's Economic Development	378	(3)
Making Growth Pro-Poor: A Key to Poverty Reduction in Asia	381	(1)
Agricultural and Rural Economic Growth: Markets Enhanced by Public Policies	382	(13)
Agricultural Research and Extension	383	(2)
Investment in Rural Infrastructure	385	(1)
Property Rights	386	(3)
Economic Liberalization	389	(2)
Rural Financial Markets	391	(2)
Investment in Education, Health, and Nutrition	393	(2)
Completing the Transformation: Reversing Environmental Degradation	395	(5)
Completing the Transformation: Reaching Less Favored Lands	400	(1)
Extending the Transformation: A New Understanding of the Role of Governance	401	(2)
Extending the Transformation: Managing a New Revolution in Agricultural Technology	403	(4)
Extending the Transformation: Managing Globalization	407	(2)
Alternative Futures: No Room for Complacency	409	(2)
Conclusion	411	(42)
References	453	(1)
Appendix	453	(1)
Asia In the Global Agricultural Economy	453	(1)
IFPRI's IMPACT Global Food Model: Model Characteristics	454	(2)
Projections for Cereals	456	(16)
Projections for Livestock Products	472	(7)
Projections for World Prices and International Trade	479	(4)
Projections for Malnutrition Among Pre-School Children	483	(3)
Indexes
Author Index	486	(7)
Title Index	493