War & Escalation in South Asia

by Unknown

• ISBN13: 9780833038128
• ISBN10: 0833038125
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-09-15
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

The advent of two nuclear powers in South Asia, discoveries of nuclear trafficking, and insurgencies and terrorism that threaten important U.S. interests and objectives directly have transformed the region from a strategic backwater into a primary theater of concern for the United States. To a great extent free of the restrictions of earlier sanction regimes and attentive to the region's central role in the global war on terrorism (GWOT), the United States has engaged the states of South Asia aggressively with a wide variety of policy initiatives. Despite the diversity of policy instruments, few are very powerful; indeed, only the U.S. military seems to offer many options for Washington to intensify further its security cooperation and influence in the region.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	ix
Tables	xi
Summary	xiii
Acknowledgments	xvii
Acronyms	xix
CHAPTER ONE Introduction	1	(8)
U.S. Interests and Objectives	2	(4)
Democracy and Economic Freedom in the Muslim World	2	(1)
A Stable and Democratic Afghanistan	3	(1)
Reduction of Tensions Between India and Pakistan	3	(1)
Specific Objectives for Regional Stability	4	(1)
Weapons of Mass Destruction	4	(1)
Counterterrorism Policy Toward South Asia	5	(1)
Key Questions Motivating the Project's Research	6	(1)
Research Approach	7	(1)
Organization of This Monograph	8	(1)
CHAPTER TWO U.S. Security Cooperation in South Asia	9	(10)
U.S. Foreign Direct Investment and Assistance Programs in South Asia	9	(10)
U.S. Foreign Direct Investment	10	(1)
Economic Assistance Loans and Grants	11	(1)
Trade	12	(1)
Military Assistance	12	(2)
Historical Involvement in the Region	14	(2)
U.S. Military Security Cooperation Today	16	(3)
CHAPTER THREE Regional Sources of Conflict	19	(34)
Ongoing Violence	19	(10)
Kashmir	20	(1)
Bangladesh	21	(2)
Water	23	(1)
Civil Wars and Insurgencies	24	(1)
Tribal and Clan Influences	24	(5)
Regional Military Balance	29	(17)
Conventional Forces	30	(6)
Conventional Force Capabilities and Trends	36	(3)
Doctrinal Shifts—Limited War and Cold Start	39	(2)
Chemical and Biological Warfare Capabilities	41	(1)
Nuclear Forces	42	(4)
Nuclear Proliferation	46	(1)
Latent Conflict Potential Between India and China	47	(6)
CHAPTER FOUR Extraregional Sources of Trouble	53	(8)
Disagreement on Energy Distribution and Pipeline Routes	53	(2)
Terrorists and International Organized Crime	55	(3)
War Diffusion and Political Instability	58	(1)
Unwelcome Cooperation Among States	58	(3)
CHAPTER FIVE Illustrative Pathways to Conflict	61	(10)
New Regime in Islamabad	61	(3)
Consequences of a New Regime in Islamabad	62	(1)
Implications for the United States	63	(1)
Pakistan-Based Illegal Armed Bands Operate in Xinjiang	64	(2)
Consequences of Pakistan-Based Illegal Armed Bands in Xinjiang	65	(1)
Implications for the United States	66	(1)
State-Sponsored Nuclear Trafficking Discovered	66	(3)
Consequences of State-Sponsored Nuclear Trafficking	67	(1)
Implications for the United States	68	(1)
War Between the United States and Iran	69	(2)
Consequences of War Between the United States and Iran	70	(1)
Implications for the United States	70	(1)
CHAPTER SIX Impact on U.S. Goals and Objectives	71	(18)
Prospects for Defending and Advancing U.S. Interests and Objectives	71	(2)
The Current Palette of Policy Options	71	(2)
Six Key Questions	73	(10)
Question One	74	(1)
Question Two	74	(3)
Question Three	77	(1)
Question Four	78	(2)
Question Five	80	(1)
Question Six	81	(2)
South Asia's New Role in U.S. Strategic Calculus	83	(3)
Consider South Asia's Challenges as Major Transformation Drivers	83	(1)
Modify the Unified Command Plan	84	(1)
Fund Intensified U.S. Security Cooperation in South Asia	84	(1)
Reconsider Contingency Plans for South Asia	84	(1)
Intensify Intelligence Production on the Region	85	(1)
Review Special Operations Forces Requirements for the Region	85	(1)
Further Develop Power Projection Capabilities into the Region	85	(1)
Implications for the Air Force	86	(3)
Bibliography	89