The Watchman Fell Asleep: The Surprise Of Yom Kippur And Its Sources

by Bar-Joseph, Uri

• ISBN13: 9780791464823
• ISBN10: 0791464822
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-10-10
• Publisher: State Univ of New York Pr

Summary

Based on many formerly undisclosed intelligence and military documents, the secret protocols of discussions on the eve of the war, and interviews with relevant figures, The Watchman Fell Asleep is a compelling account of Israel's intelligence failure before the 1973 Arab attack known as the Yom Kippur War. The Hebrew version of this book was awarded the Tshetshik Prize for Strategic Studies on Israel's Security in 2001, and the Israeli Political Science Association's Best Book Award in 2002. Available here in English for the first time, Uri Bar-Joseph has crafted an authoritative explanation of the most traumatic event in Israel's stormy history and one of the biggest strategic military surprises of the twentieth century.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	ix
Introduction	1	(10)
Part I. The Egyptian War Decision and Its Implementation
Chapter 1. The War Decision	11	(4)
Chapter 2. Planning the Next War: Past Experience and the Main Problems	15	(10)
Problem I: The Crossing of the Canal	17	(2)
Problem II: Egyptian Air Inferiority	19	(4)
Problem III: Inferiority in Armored Fighting	23	(2)
Chapter 3. The Egyptian Deception Plan	25	(8)
i. The Role of Deception in Egyptian War Planning	25	(1)
ii. Passive Deception	26	(1)
iii. Active Deception	27	(3)
iv. Assessment of the Egyptian Deception	30	(3)
Chapter 4. The Egyptian-Syrian War Coordination	33	(6)
Part II. Israel Prepares for War
Chapter 5. The Balance of Forces—the Israeli View	39	(6)
Chapter 6. The Intelligence Conception and Its Sources	45	(8)
i. The Conception	45	(2)
ii. The Empirical Evidence	47	(6)
Chapter 7. The Strategic Warning and Its Role in Israel's War Plans	53	(6)
Chapter 8. The Next War Scenarios	59	(4)
Chapter 9. The War Estimate: October 1972 —August 1973	63	(18)
i. October 1972—April 1973	63	(3)
ii. April—May 1973	66	(7)
iii. June—August 1973	73	(8)
Part III. The Dynamics of an Intelligence Fiasco
Chapter 10. August—September 1973	81	(22)
Chapter 11. Monday, October 1, 1973	103	(10)
Chapter 12. Tuesday, October 2, 1973	113	(6)
Chapter 13. Wednesday, October 3, 1973	119	(14)
Chapter 14. Thursday, October 4, 1973	133	(8)
Chapter 15. Friday, October 5, 1973	141	(46)
Chapter 16. Saturday, October 6, 1973, 0400-1400	187	(14)
Chapter 17. Surprise	201	(24)
i. The Cabinet	201	(1)
ii. The Canal Front	202	(9)
iii. The Golan Front	211	(7)
iv. The Air Force	218	(7)
Chapter 18. The Cost of Being Caught Unprepared	225	(10)
i. The Material Losses	223	(5)
ii. The Psychological Impact of Surprise	228	(7)
Chapter 19. The Causes of the Intelligence Failure	235	(18)
i. Obstacles Unique to the Warning-Response Process	236	(4)
ii. Bureaucratic Obstacles	240	(3)
iii. Groupthinking	243	(3)
iv. Psychological Obstacles at the Individual Level	246	(2)
v. The Human Factor	248	(5)
Notes	253	(36)
Bibliography	289	(10)
Index	299

Excerpts

"Based on many formerly undisclosed intelligence and military documents, the secret protocols of discussions on the eve of the war, and interviews with relevant figures, The Watchman Fell Asleep is a compelling account of Israel's intelligence failure before the 1973 Arab attack known as the Yom Kippur War. The Hebrew version of this book was awarded the Tshetshik Prize for Strategic Studies on Israel's Security in 2001, and the Israeli Political Science Association's Best Book Award in 2002. Available here in English for the first time, Uri Bar-Joseph has crafted an authoritative explanation of the most traumatic event in Israel's stormy history and one of the biggest strategic military surprises of the twentieth century."--BOOK JACKET.