What's Luck Got to Do with It? : The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler's Illusion

by Mazur, Joseph

• ISBN13: 9781400834457
• ISBN10: 1400834457
• Copyright: 2010-06-03
• Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr

Summary

Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are "hot" in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails?What's Luck Got to Do with It?takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good.Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling--including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers--and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability.As entertaining as it is informative,What's Luck Got to Do with It?demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing.

Table of Contents

Introduction	p. xi
The History
Pits, Pebbles, and Bones
Rolling to Discover Fate	p. 3
The Professionals
Luck Becomes Measurable	p. 19
From Coffeehouses to Casinos
Gaming Becomes Big Business	p. 37
There's No Stopping It Now
From Bans to Bookies	p. 46
Betting with Trillions
The 2008 World Economic Calamity	p. 58
The Mathematics
Who's Got a Royal Flush?
One Deal as Likely as Another	p. 75
The Behavior of a Coin
Making Predictions with Probability	p. 83
Someone Has to Win
Betting against Expectation	p. 101
A Truly Astonishing Result
The Weak Law of Large Numbers	p. 118
The Skill/Luck Spectrum
Even Great Talent Needs Some Good Fortune	p. 131
The Analysis
Let It Ride
The House Money Effect	p. 157
Knowing When to Quit
Psychomanaging Risk	p. 168
The Theories
What Makes a Gambler?	p. 182
Hot Hands
Expecting Long Runs of the Same Outcome	p. 202
Luck
The Dicey Illusion	p. 209
Acknowledgments	p. 217
Descriptions of the Games Used in This Book	p. 219
Glossary of Gambling Terms Used in This Book	p. 224
The Weak Law of Large Numbers	p. 227
Glossary of Mathematical Definitions	p. 229
Callouts	p. 236
Notes	p. 249
Further Reading	p. 265
Index	p. 267
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.