The World Under Pressure

by Dahlman, Carl J.

• ISBN13: 9780804777131
• ISBN10: 0804777136
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-11-09
• Publisher: Stanford Economics & Finance

Summary

The rapid rise of China and India is reshaping our global economic and environmental systems--raising major issues of stability, governance, and sustainability. This book develops a framework that shows the interdependence between economic size, trade, finance, technology, environment, security, and global governance. Author Carl J. Dahlman uses this framework to provide data on the speed of global power shifts and to trace the implications for nations worldwide. Analyzing this critical moment in historical context, he offers insights into our most pressing concerns. Specifically, China and India's unchecked growth has the potential to ignite trade, resource, cold, and conventional wars. Moreover, these nations could set in motion monumental challenges related to climate change. The text warns that the current international governance system is not up to the challenges of defusing these frictions. Major powers, including China and India, must do more to address the gathering storm. Developing sustainable economic and social relationships will be a most difficult charge, but the cost of putting off reforms will be lower global welfare. Dahlman ends the book with starting points for change.

Author Biography

Danny Leipziger, Professor, George Washington University and former Vice President and Head of Network, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, The World Bank

Table of Contents

List of Figures	p. xi
List of Tables	p. xiii
Preface	p. xv
Acknowledgments	p. xvii
List of Abbreviations	p. xxi
Rising Powers	p. 1
Why This Book? The Rise of These Two Powers Is Stressing the Global System	p. 1
Structure of the Book: Review the Past to Get Insights into the Present and the Future	p. 4
Insights from History of Power Shifts and Growing Interdependence	p. 8
Conflicting Theories Provide Relevant Perspectives	p. 9
This Book Uses a Broad Framework to Analyze and Track Power Shifts	p. 14
2000-Year Overview of the Rise and Decline of Power Shows Frictions Spiral into Wars and Changes of the Global System	p. 38
There Have Been Significant Shifts in Economic Size Even in the Last 30 Years	p. 41
Conclusion: The History of Power Shifts Is Not Reassuring	p. 42
Understanding the Rapid Rise of China and India	p. 45
Basic Comparisons	p. 46
Some Similarities in Otherwise Very Different Histories	p. 48
A Macroaccounting for the Differences in Growth	p. 50
The Type and Role of Government	p. 53
Two Contrasting Growth Strategies	p. 56
Acquiring Technology from the Rest of the World	p. 65
Conclusion: Both Countries' Growth Is Largely Driven by Technological Catch-Up and Participation in the International System	p. 71
Positive Growth Prospects for China and India	p. 74
The Impact of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis on China and India	p. 75
Long-Term Projections for Growth of China and India	p. 76
China and India Face Daunting Challenges	p. 79
Both Countries Are Increasing Their Competitiveness	p. 93
Part of Their New Competitive Advantage Is Their Growing Critical Mass in Higher Education	p. 94
They Are Also Moving from Imitation to Innovation	p. 99
Both Countries Are Likely to Continue to Grow Much Faster Than the World Average for the Next Two Decades	p. 109
Growing Economic and Geopolitical Impact	p. 112
Positive and Negative Impact Through Increased Trade	p. 113
From China's Trade Surpluses to Global Imbalances	p. 126
Growing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)	p. 135
A Tilted Technology Playing Field	p. 143
Growing Geopolitical Impact of the Rise of China	p. 149
Environmental and Natural Resource Impact	p. 154
China and India Are Resource Poor	p. 155
The Rapid Growth of China and India Combined with Their Large Populations Is Creating Global Environmental Sustainability Problems	p. 161
China and India Will Account for the Majority of Global Increase in Energy Demand and C02 Emissions from 2008 to 2035	p. 163
There Is a Stalemate on Action to Deal with Climate Change Because It Is a Zero-Sum Game	p. 171
Technological Innovation Is a Way to Break the Climate Change Deadlock, but Not Enough Investments in R&D Are Being Made	p. 175
There Is Also Increasing Pressure on the Environment from the Growth of Other Developing Countries	p. 180
Power Shifts and Rising Frictions Have Implications for the Global System and the United States	p. 182
The Rapid Rise of China and India Is Putting Pressure on the Global Governance System	p. 183
Growing Friction Areas Are Beyond the Current Capabilities of the International System	p. 183
Risks That Frictions May Lead to Greater Problems	p. 189
Evolution Within the Existing System or the Rise of a New System?	p. 198
What Can/Should the United States Do?	p. 205
How Will the World Adjust to the Swift Ascent of China and India?	p. 209
Alternative Scenarios	p. 209
Moving Toward a More Sustainable System	p. 214
Implications for Other Developing Countries Vary	p. 229
Conclusion: The Main Powers Need to Take Stronger Actions to Ensure a More Sustainable and Equitable Global System	p. 232
Notes	p. 235
References	p. 275
Index	p. 291
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.