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9780833028136

Confronting Iraq U.S. Policy and the Use of Force Since the Gulf War

by ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780833028136

  • ISBN10:

    0833028138

  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2000-07-11
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
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Summary

Although Iraq remains hostile to the United States, Baghdad has repeatedly compromised, and at times caved, in response to U.S. pressure and threats. An analysis of attempts to coerce Iraq since Desert Storm reveals that military strikes and other forms of pressure that threatened Saddam Husayn's relationship with his power base proved effective at forcing concessions from the Iraqi regime. When coercing Saddam or other foes, U.S. policymakers should design a strategy around the adversary's center of gravity while seeking to neutralize adversary efforts to counter-coerce the United States and appreciating the policy constraints imposed by domestic politics and international alliances.

Table of Contents

Preface iii
Figures
ix
Summary xi
Acknowledgments xxi
Abbreviations xxiii
Introduction
1(4)
Understanding Coercion
5(8)
Defining Coercion
6(1)
Difficulties in Distinguishing Compellence from Deterrence
6(2)
Coercion as a Dynamic Process
8(2)
The Uncertain Meaning of ``Success''
10(3)
Iraq as an Adversary
13(10)
How Saddam Stays in Power
14(4)
Security and Regime Protection Forces
14(2)
Political Techniques
16(2)
Iraq's Foreign Policy Goals
18(1)
Saddam's Shifting Strategy
19(4)
Saddam as an Adversary: A Cagey Foe or Foolish Thug?
20(3)
U.S. Objectives, Options, Assumptions
23(14)
Analytic Assumptions
24(1)
Containing Iraqi Aggression
25(4)
Preventing NBC Buildup
29(1)
Toppling Saddam's Regime
30(1)
Preserving Regional Stability
31(1)
Constraints on the United States
32(5)
Fear of Iraqi Fragmentation
32(1)
Discomfort with Sanctions
33(1)
Preserving an International Alliance
34(1)
Humanitarian Ambivalence
34(1)
Domestic Limits to Any Concessions
35(2)
Attempts to Coerce Iraq: The Historical Record
37(40)
Establishing UNSCOM Inspections (1991)
39(4)
Creating a Kurdish Safe Haven (1991-1992)
43(5)
Establishing a Southern No-Fly Zone (August 1992-Present)
48(4)
Responding to Inspection and No-Fly Zone Standoffs (December 1992-January 1993)
52(3)
Deterring an Invasion of Kuwait (1994)
55(3)
Punishing the Iraqi Thrust into Northern Iraq (1996)
58(6)
Halting Defiance of UNSCOM (1997-1998)
64(4)
Forcing Compliance with UNSCOM (Operation Desert Fox, December 1998)
68(3)
The Changing Dynamics of Confrontation
71(1)
Attempts to Coerce Iraq: A Scorecard
72(3)
U.S. Policy Tradeoffs and Gulf Security
75(2)
Iraq's Vulnerabilities: An Assessment
77(8)
Iraqi Pressure Points
78(2)
What Iraq Is Not Sensitive to
80(1)
Iraqi Countermoves to Offset Vulnerabilities
81(4)
Implications for Coercion
85(6)
Recognizing Adversary Centers of Gravity
85(1)
Coercion As a Dynamic Process
86(2)
Understanding What Cannot Be Affected
88(1)
Integrating Coercive Threats into Long-Term Policy
89(1)
Recognizing Our Own Limits
90(1)
Bibliography 91

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