Seeing Through Statistics

by Utts, Jessica M.

• ISBN13: 9780534357863
• ISBN10: 0534357865
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-02-19
• Publisher: Duxbury Press

Summary

This second edition of Jessica Utt's popular book develops statistical literacy and critical thinking through real-world applications, with an emphasis on ideas, not calculations. Utts focuses on two central concepts--uncertainty and data. Ideas are introduced in interesting applied and real contexts, without using an abundance of technicalities and calculations which only serve to confuse students.

Table of Contents

PART 1 FINDING DATA IN LIFE	1	(104)
CHAPTER 1 The Benefits and Risks of Using Statistics	2	(12)
1.1 Statistics	3	(1)
Case Study 1.1 Heart or Hypothalamus?	3	(1)
1.2 Detecting Patterns and Relationships	4	(3)
Case Study 1.2 Does Aspirin Prevent Heart Attacks?	6	(1)
1.3 Don't Be Deceived by Improper Use of Statistics	7	(2)
Case Study 1.3 A Mistaken Accusation of Cheating	9	(1)
1.4 Summary and Conclusions	9	(1)
Exercises	10	(2)
Mini-Projects	12	(1)
References	13	(1)
CHAPTER 2 Reading the News	14	(17)
2.1 The Educated Consumer of Data	15	(1)
2.2 How to Be a Statistics Sleuth: Seven Critical Components	15	(3)
2.3 Four Hypothetical Examples of Bad Reports	18	(7)
2.4 Planning Your Own Study: Defining the Components in Advance	25	(2)
Case Study 2.1 Brooks Shoes Brings Flawed Study to Court	26	(1)
Exercises	27	(3)
Mini-Projects	30	(1)
References	30	(1)
CHAPTER 3 Measurements, Mistakes, and Misunderstandings	31	(17)
3.1 Simple Measures Don't Exist	32	(1)
3.2 It's All in the Wording	32	(3)
Case Study 3.1 No Opinion of Your Own? Let Politics Decide	35	(1)
3.3 Open or Closed Questions: Should Choices Be Given?	35	(2)
3.4 Defining What Is Being Measured	37	(3)
Case Study 3.2 Questions in Advertising	39	(1)
3.5 Defining a Common Language	40	(4)
Exercises	44	(2)
Mini-Projects	46	(1)
References	47	(1)
CHAPTER 4 How to Get a Good Sample	48	(22)
4.1 Common Research Strategies	49	(2)
4.2 Defining a Common Language	51	(1)
4.3 The Beauty of Sampling	52	(2)
4.4 Simple Random Sampling	54	(1)
4.5 Other Sampling Methods	55	(3)
4.6 Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling	58	(5)
Case Study 4.1 The Infamous Literary Digest Poll of 1936	63	(1)
Exercises	63	(5)
Mini-Projects	68	(1)
References	68	(2)
CHAPTER 5 Experiments and Observational Studies	70	(22)
5.1 Defining a Common Language	71	(3)
5.2 Designing a Good Experiment	74	(3)
Case Study 5.1 Quitting Smoking with Nicotine Patches	76	(1)
5.3 Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments	77	(4)
Case Study 5.2 Exercise Yourself to Sleep	81	(1)
5.4 Designing a Good Observational Study	81	(3)
Case Study 5.3 Baldness and Heart Attacks	81	(3)
5.5 Difficulties and Disasters in Observational Studies	84	(2)
Exercises	86	(4)
Mini-Projects	90	(1)
References	90	(2)
CHAPTER 6 Getting the Big Picture	92	(13)
6.1 Final Questions	92	(12)
Case Study 6.1 Mozart, Relaxation, and Performance on Spatial Tasks	93	(2)
Case Study 6.2 Meditation and Aging	95	(3)
Case Study 6.3 Drinking, Driving, and the Supreme Court	98	(3)
Case Study 6.4 Smoking During Pregnancy and Child's IQ	101	(2)
Case Study 6.5 For Class Discussion: Guns and Homicides at Home	103	(1)
References	104	(1)
PART 2 FINDING LIFE IN DATA	105	(150)
CHAPTER 7 Summarizing and Displaying Measurement Data	106	(21)
7.1 Turning Data into Information	107	(1)
7.2 The Total Picture: Stemplots and Histograms	108	(7)
7.3 Five Useful Numbers: A Summary	115	(1)
7.4 Boxplots	116	(3)
7.5 Traditional Measures: Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation	119	(4)
Case Study 7.1 Detecting Exam Cheating with a Histogram	122	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	123	(1)
Exercises	123	(3)
Mini-Projects	126	(1)
References	126	(1)
CHAPTER 8 Bell-Shaped Curves and Other Shapes	127	(13)
8.1 Populations, Frequency Curves, and Proportions	128	(2)
8.2 The Pervasiveness of Normal Curves	130	(1)
8.3 Percentiles and Standardized Scores	130	(4)
8.4 z-Scores and Familiar Intervals	134	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	135	(1)
Exercises	136	(3)
References	139	(1)
CHAPTER 9 Plots, Graphs, and Pictures	140	(17)
9.1 Well-Designed Statistical Pictures	141	(1)
9.2 Pictures of Categorical Data	141	(3)
9.3 Pictures of Measurement Variables	144
9.4 Difficulties and Disasters in Plots, Graphs, and Pictures	140
9.5 A Checklist for Statistical Pictures	151	(2)
Case Study 9.1 Time to Panic about Illicit Drug Use?	152	(1)
Exercises	153	(3)
Mini-Projects	156	(1)
References	156	(1)
CHAPTER 10 Relationships Between Measurement Variables	157	(20)
10.1 Statistical Relationships	158	(1)
10.2 Strength versus Statistical Significance	159	(1)
10.3 Measuring Strength Through Correlation	160	(4)
10.4 Specifying Linear Relationships with Regression	164	(8)
Case Study 10.1 Are Attitudes about Love and Romance Hereditary?	168	(2)
Case Study 10.2 A Weighty Issue: Women Want Less, Men Want More	170	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	172	(1)
Exercises	172	(3)
Mini-Projects	175	(1)
References	175	(2)
CHAPTER 11 Relationships Can Be Deceiving	177	(18)
11.1 Illegitimate Correlations	178	(5)
11.2 Legitimate Correlation Does Not Imply Causation	183	(3)
11.3 Some Reasons for Relationships Between Variables	186	(3)
11.4 Confirming Causation	189	(1)
Exercises	190	(4)
Mini-Projects	194	(1)
References	194	(1)
CHAPTER 12 Relationships Between Categorical Variables	195	(31)
12.1 Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables	196	(3)
12.2 Assessing the Statistical Significance of a 2 X 2 Table	199	(8)
Case Study 12.1 Extrasensory Perception Works Best with Movies	206	(1)
12.3 Relative Risk, Increased Risk, and Odds	207	(4)
12.4 Misleading Statistics about Risk	211	(2)
12.5 Simpson's Paradox: The Missing Third Variable	213	(4)
Case Study 12.2 Assessing Discrimination in Hiring and Firing	215	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	217	(1)
Exercises	218	(6)
Mini-Projects	224	(1)
References	224	(2)
CHAPTER 13 Reading the Economic News	226	(15)
13.1 Cost of Living: The Consumer Price Index	227	(3)
13.2 Uses of the Consumer Price Index	230	(2)
13.3 Criticisms of the Consumer Price Index	232	(2)
13.4 Economic Indicators	234	(3)
Case Study 13.1 Did Wages Really Go Up in the Reagan-Bush Years?	236	(1)
Exercises	237	(2)
Mini-Projects	239	(1)
References	240	(1)
CHAPTER 14 Understanding and Reporting Trends over Time	241	(14)
14.1 Time Series	242	(1)
14.2 Components of Time Series	243	(3)
14.3 Seasonal Adjustments: Reporting the Consumer Price Index	246	(2)
14.4 Cautions and Checklist	248	(3)
Case Study 14.1 If You're Looking for a Job, Try May or October	249	(2)
Exercises	251	(2)
Mini-Projects	253	(1)
References	253	(2)
PART 3 UNDERSTANDING UNCERTAINTY IN LIFE	255	(60)
CHAPTER 15 Understanding Probability and Long-Term Expectations	256	(23)
15.1 Probability	257	(1)
15.2 The Relative-Frequency Interpretation	257	(3)
15.3 The Personal-Probability Interpretation	260	(1)
15.4 Applying Some Simple Probability Rules	261	(3)
15.5 When Will It Happen?	264	(3)
15.6 Long-Term Gains, Losses, and Expectations	267	(4)
Case Study 15.1 Birthdays and Death Days--Is There a Connection?	270	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	271	(1)
Exercises	271	(6)
Mini-Projects	277	(1)
References	277	(2)
CHAPTER 16 Psychological Influences on Personal Probability	279	(17)
16.1 Revisiting Personal Probability	280	(1)
16.2 Equivalent Probabilities; Different Decisions	280	(2)
16.3 How Personal Probabilities Can Be Distorted	282	(4)
16.4 Optimism, Reluctance to Change, and Overconfidence	286	(2)
16.5 Calibrating Personal Probabilities of Experts	288	(2)
Case Study 16.1 Calibrating Weather Forecasters and Physicians	289	(1)
16.6 Tips for Improving Your Personal Probabilities and Judgments	290	(1)
Exercises	291	(3)
Mini-Projects	294	(1)
References	294	(2)
CHAPTER 17 When Intuition Differs from Relative Frequency	296	(19)
17.1 Revisiting Relative Frequency	297	(1)
17.2 Coincidences	297	(4)
17.3 The Gambler's Fallacy	301	(1)
17.4 Confusion of the Inverse	302	(3)
Case Study 17.1 Streak Shooting in Basketball: Reality or Illusion?	304	(1)
17.5 Using Expected Values to Make Wise Decisions	305	(4)
Case Study 17.2 How Bad Is a Bet on the British Open?	307	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	309	(1)
Exercises	309	(3)
Mini-Projects	312	(1)
References	313	(2)
PART 4 MAKING JUDGMENTS FROM SURVEYS AND EXPERIMENTS	315	(138)
CHAPTER 18 The Diversity of Samples from the Same Population	316	(19)
18.1 Setting the Stage	317	(1)
18.2 What to Expect of Sample Proportions	317	(5)
18.3 What to Expect of Sample Means	322	(4)
18.4 What to Expect in Other Situations	326	(2)
Case Study 18.1 Do Americans Really Vote When They Say They Do?	327	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	328	(1)
Exercises	329	(3)
Mini-Projects	332	(2)
References	334	(1)
CHAPTER 19 Estimating Proportions with Confidence	335	(16)
19.1 Confidence Intervals	336	(1)
19.2 Three Examples of Confidence Intervals from the Media	336	(3)
19.3 Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Proportion	339	(6)
Case Study 19.1 A Winning Confidence Interval Loses in Court	344	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	345	(1)
Exercises	345	(4)
Mini-Projects	349	(1)
References	350	(1)
CHAPTER 20 The Role of Confidence Intervals in Research	351	(20)
20.1 Confidence Intervals for Population Means	352	(3)
20.2 Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Means	355	(2)
20.3 Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Confidence Intervals	357	(5)
20.4 Understanding Any Confidence Interval	362	(2)
Case Study 20.1 Premenstrual Syndrome? Try Calcium	363	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	364	(1)
Exercises	365	(3)
Mini-Projects	368	(1)
References	369	(2)
CHAPTER 21 Rejecting Chance--Testing Hypotheses in Research	371	(17)
21.1 Using Data to Make Decisions	372	(2)
21.2 The Basic Steps for Testing Hypotheses	374	(3)
21.3 What Can Go Wrong: The Two Types of Errors	377	(6)
Case Study 21.1 Testing for the Existence of Extrasensory Perception	380	(3)
Exercises	383	(3)
Mini-Projects	386	(1)
References	387	(1)
CHAPTER 22 Hypothesis Testing--Examples and Case Studies	388	(19)
22.1 How Hypothesis Tests Are Reported in the News	389	(1)
22.2 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions and Means	390	(3)
22.3 Revisiting Chi-Squared Tests for Categorical Variables	393	(2)
22.4 Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Hypothesis Tests	395	(5)
Case Study 22.1 An Interpretation of a p-Value Not Fit to Print	398	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	400	(1)
Exercises	401	(4)
Mini-Projects	405	(1)
References	406	(1)
CHAPTER 23 Significance, Importance, and Undetected Differences	407	(14)
23.1 Real Importance versus Statistical Significance	408	(2)
23.2 The Role of Sample Size in Statistical Significance	410	(1)
23.3 No Difference versus No Statistically Significant Difference	411	(3)
Case Study 23.1 Seen a UFO? You May Be Healthier Than Your Friends	413	(1)
23.4 A Summary of Warnings	414	(2)
Case Study 23.2 Finding Loneliness on the Internet	415	(1)
Exercises	416	(3)
Mini-Projects	419	(1)
References	420	(1)
CHAPTER 24 Meta-Analysis: Resolving Inconsistencies across Studies	421	(17)
24.1 The Need for Meta-Analysis	422	(1)
24.2 Two Important Decisions for the Analyst	423	(4)
Case Study 24.1 Smoking and Reduced Fertility	426	(1)
24.3 Some Benefits of Meta-Analysis	427	(2)
24.4 Criticisms of Meta-Analysis	429	(5)
Case Study 24.2 Controversy over Mammograms	432	(2)
Exercises	434	(2)
Mini-Projects	436	(1)
References	437	(1)
CHAPTER 25 Putting What You Have Learned to the Test	438	(15)
Case Study 25.1 Cranberry Juice and Bladder Infections	439	(1)
Case Study 25.2 Children on the Go	440	(1)
Case Study 25.3 It Really Is True about Aspirin	441	(2)
Case Study 25.4 You Can Work and Get Your Exercise at the Same Time	443	(1)
Case Study 25.5 Sex, Alcohol, and the First Date	443	(1)
Case Study 25.6 Unpalatable Pate	444	(1)
Case Study 25.7 Nursing Moms Can Exercise, Too	445	(1)
Case Study 25.8 So You Thought Spinach Was Good for You?	446	(2)
Case Study 25.9 Chill Out--Time to Move to Honolulu	448	(2)
Case Study 25.10 So You Thought Hot Dogs Were Bad for You?	450	(3)
References	451	(2)
Solutions to Selected Exercises	453	(4)
Index	457