Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

by Fay, Marianne; Block, Rachel; Ebinger, Jane

• ISBN13: 9780821381311
• ISBN10: 0821381318
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-01-28
• Publisher: World Bank Publications

Summary

The region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is already experiencing the consequences of climate change: increasing variability, warmer temperatures, altered hydrology. Events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires are increasing in number and severity. The concentration of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere guarantees that similar or greater changes are yet to come-even if the world were to completely stop emitting CO2 today.

Table of Contents

About the Editors and Authors	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xv
ECA Countries and Subregions	p. xvii
Executive Summary	p. xix
Abbreviations	p. xxi
Overview	p. 1
Climate Change-A Major Threat to Eastern Europe and Central Asia	p. 3
Vulnerability Will Be Dominated by Socioeconomic Factors and Legacy Issues	p. 6
Even Countries and Sectors that Could Benefit from Climate Change Are Poorly Positioned To Do So	p. 8
The Next Decade Offers a Window of Opportunity for ECA Countries	p. 9
Notes	p. 11
A Framework for Developing Adaptation Plans	p. 13
Vulnerability as a Function of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity	p. 15
From Vulnerability to Action: Tackling the Challenge of Adaptation	p. 22
Effective Adaptation Requires the Right Decision-Making Tools	p. 28
Notes	p. 34
How ECA's Climate Has Changed and Is Likely to Change Further	p. 37
Eastern Europe and Central Asia's Climate Is Already Changing	p. 38
More Change Is Certain-the Question Is Where and How	p. 39
Climate Projections: How Is Eastern Europe and Central Asia Likely To Be Affected?	p. 40
Notes	p. 51
Human Health: The Most Basic Vulnerability	p. 53
Warmer and More Extreme Weather Brings New Threats and Exacerbates Others	p. 54
Vulnerability from Climate-Driven Migration: The Health Perspective	p. 60
Assessing Vulnerability and Prioritizing Protections	p. 64
Climate Change Will Make Water and Land Management More Complex	p. 69
More Difficult Water Resource Management-Too Much or Too Little of a Good Thing?	p. 70
More Stress on Already Stressed Coastal Areas	p. 74
Declining Arctic Ice, Tundra, and Permafrost	p. 80
Threats to Biodiversity Are Significant	p. 80
Notes	p. 88
The Unbuilt Environment: Agriculture and Forestry	p. 91
Climate Impacts Will Exacerbate ECA's Persistent Problem of Rural Poverty	p. 93
Models Predict There Will Be Winners and Losers in ECA	p. 95
The State and Sensitivities of ECA's Agriculture Today	p. 108
Potential Climate Change Winners Face Their Own Challenges	p. 113
Adaptation in the Productive Environment	p. 115
Notes	p. 116
The Built Environment: Cities, Water Systems, Energy, and Transport	p. 121
Urban Challenges: Making Cities Livable and Viable in a Warmer Century	p. 123
Water: Supplying All Human Activity Essential for Facing Multiple Pressures	p. 127
Energy-Sector Vulnerabilities: New Pressure to Overcome a Legacy of Inefficiency	p. 130
Transport: Taking On Another Increment of Challenge	p. 135
Notes	p. 137
Protection and Preparation: Disaster Risk Management and Weather Forecasting	p. 139
Softening the Blow When Disaster Strikes	p. 140
Understanding When Extreme Weather Is Coming	p. 146
Conclusion	p. 150
Notes	p. 151
References	p. 153
Index	p. 167
Boxes
Standard Approaches for Understanding Risk and Developing an Adaptation Strategy	p. 25
Lessons on the Engagement of Stakeholders in Adaptation Plans-Urban Experiences	p. 27
Is Adaptation any Different from Development?	p. 29
The World Bank's Climate Portal	p. 33
Tools to Help You: Tools Portfolio of the UK Climate Impact Program	p. 34
General Circulation Models and Climate Downscaling	p. 41
The Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate in Eastern Europe and Central Asia	p. 43
With Every Flood, a Risk of Disease	p. 57
Adaptation Strategies for Floods and Heat Waves	p. 66
Placing More Emphasis on River Basin Management	p. 75
Bioclimatic Models	p. 84
Estimated Agronomic Impacts of Climate Change in ECA to 2050: A Summary	p. 97
Economic Agricultural Impact Models and Their Limitations	p. 106
Roma, Already Marginalized, Are Particularly Vulnerable	p. 123
Green Roofs to Manage Stormwater and Heat Waves	p. 126
ECA's Energy Sector in Need of Investments and Improved Management	p. 131
Poland's Flood Disaster Leads to Stepped-Up Preparation	p. 149
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.