Adaptive Business Intelligence

by Michalewicz, Zbigniew; Schmidt, Martin; Michalewicz, Matthew; Chiriac, Constantin

• ISBN13: 9783540329282
• ISBN10: 3540329285
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2007-01-30
• Publisher: Springer-Nature New York Inc

Summary

In the modern information era, managers must recognize the competitive opportunities represented by decision-support tools. Adaptive business intelligence systems combine prediction and optimization techniques to assist decision makers in complex, rapidly changing environments. These systems address the fundamental questions: What is likely to happen in the future? And what is the best course of action? Adaptive Business Intelligence includes elements of data mining, predictive modeling, forecasting, optimization, and adaptability.The authors have considerable academic research backgrounds in artificial intelligence and related fields, combined with years of practical consulting experience in businesses and industries worldwide. In this book they explain the science and application of numerous prediction and optimization techniques, as well as how these concepts can be used to develop adaptive systems. The techniques covered include linear regression, time-series forecasting, decision trees and tables, artificial neural networks, genetic programming, fuzzy systems, genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, tabu search, ant systems, and agent-based modeling.This book is suitable for business and IT managers who make decisions in complex industrial and service environments, nonspecialists who want to understand the science behind better predictions and decisions, and students and researchers who need a quick introduction to this field.

Table of Contents

Part I: Complex Business Problems
1 Introduction	3	(6)
2 Characteristics of Complex Business Problems	9	(16)
2.1 Number of Possible Solutions	10	(2)
2.2 Time-Changing Environment	12	(1)
2.3 Problem-Specific Constraints	13	(1)
2.4 Multi-objective Problems	14	(2)
2.5 Modeling the Problem	16	(3)
2.6 A Real-World Example	19	(6)
3 An Extended Example: Car Distribution	25	(12)
3.1 Basic Terminology	25	(2)
3.2 Off-lease Cars	27	(1)
3.3 The Problem	28	(2)
3.4 Transportation	30	(2)
3.5 Volume Effect	32	(1)
3.6 Price Depreciation and Inventory	33	(1)
3.7 Dynamic Market Changes	33	(1)
3.8 The Solution	34	(3)
4 Adaptive Business Intelligence	37	(12)
4.1 Data Mining	38	(3)
4.2 Prediction	41	(2)
4.3 Optimization	43	(1)
4.4 Adaptability	44	(1)
4.5 The Structure of an Adaptive Business Intelligence System	45	(4)
Part II: Prediction and Optimization
5 Prediction Methods and Models	49	(26)
5.1 Data Preparation	51	(5)
5.2 Different Prediction Methods	56	(13)
5.2.1 Mathematical Methods	56	(6)
5.2.2 Distance Methods	62	(2)
5.2.3 Logic Methods	64	(4)
5.2.4 Modern Heuristic Methods	68	(1)
5.2.5 Additional Considerations	69	(1)
5.3 Evaluation of Models	69	(5)
5.4 Recommended Reading	74	(1)
6 Modern Optimization Techniques	75	(42)
6.1 Overview	75	(7)
6.2 Local Optimization Techniques	82	(5)
6.3 Stochastic Hill Climber	87	(3)
6.4 Simulated Annealing	90	(6)
6.5 Tabu Search	96	(5)
6.6 Evolutionary Algorithms	101	(7)
6.7 Constraint Handling	108	(4)
6.8 Additional Issues	112	(2)
6.9 Recommended Reading	114	(3)
7 Fuzzy Logic	117	(14)
7.1 Overview	119	(1)
7.2 Fuzzifier	119	(4)
7.3 Inference System	123	(4)
7.4 Defuzzifier	127	(1)
7.5 Tuning the Membership Functions and Rule Base	128	(1)
7.6 Recommended Reading	129	(2)
8 Artificial Neural Networks	131	(20)
8.1 Overview	132	(2)
8.2 Node Input and Output	134	(2)
8.3 Different Types of Networks	136	(6)
8.3.1 Feed-Forward Neural Networks	137	(3)
8.3.2 Recurrent Neural Networks	140	(2)
8.4 Learning Methods	142	(5)
8.4.1 Supervised Learning	142	(4)
8.4.2 Unsupervised Learning	146	(1)
8.5 Data Representation	147	(1)
8.6 Recommended Reading	148	(3)
9 Other Methods and Techniques	151
9.1 Genetic Programming	151	(7)
9.2 Ant Systems and Swarm Intelligence	158	(5)
9.3 Agent-Based Modeling	163	(6)
9.4 Co-evolution	169	(4)
9.5 Recommended Reading	173	(4)
Part III: Adaptive Business Intelligence
10 Hybrid Systems and Adaptability	177	(14)
10.1 Hybrid Systems for Prediction	178	(5)
10.2 Hybrid Systems for Optimization	183	(4)
10.3 Adaptability	187	(4)
11 Car Distribution System	191	(24)
11.1 Overview	192	(2)
11.2 Graphical User Interface	194	(9)
11.2.1 Constraint Handling	195	(6)
11.2.2 Reporting	201	(2)
11.3 Prediction Module	203	(3)
11.4 Optimization Module	206	(2)
11.5 Adaptability Module	208	(3)
11.6 Validation	211	(4)
12 Applying Adaptive Business Intelligence	215	(24)
12.1 Marketing Campaigns	215	(6)
12.2 Manufacturing	221	(3)
12.3 Investment Strategies	224	(4)
12.4 Emergency Response Services	228	(4)
12.5 Credit Card Fraud	232	(7)
13 Conclusion	239	(4)
Index	243