The Adaptive Decision Maker

by John W. Payne , James R. Bettman , Eric J. Johnson

• ISBN13: 9780521415057
• ISBN10: 0521415055
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1993-05-28
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyze how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
Adaptive decision behavior: An introduction	1	(19)
Flexibility in decision making	1	(2)
Factors influencing contingent decision behavior	3	(1)
The benefits and costs of contingent decision behavior	4	(5)
Overview of a framework for adaptive decision behavior	9	(6)
Research on contingent behavior in other areas of psychology	15	(2)
The organization of the book	17	(3)
Contingencies in decision making	20	(50)
Introduction	20	(2)
Decision strategies	22	(12)
Decision problem characteristics: Task effects	34	(20)
Decision problem characteristics: Context effects	54	(12)
Contingent usage of strategies for probabilistic reasoning	66	(2)
Summary	68	(2)
Deciding how to decide: An effort---accuracy framework	70	(47)
Introduction	70	(2)
Costs and benefits in decision making	72	(3)
Cognitive effort and decision strategies	75	(13)
The accuracy of decisions	88	(3)
Anticipated accuracy and effort	91	(1)
Trading accuracy for effort savings	92	(7)
Relationships to other frameworks	99	(15)
Summary	114	(3)
Studying contingent decisions: An integrated methodology	117	(54)
Introduction	117	(1)
Production systems as models of decision strategies	118	(5)
A Monte Carlo study of effort and accuracy in choice	123	(21)
Process-tracing methods	144	(3)
Validation by relating the simulation results to prior studies of contingent processing	147	(7)
Validation of the simulation results by direct tests	154	(14)
Summary	168	(3)
Constructive processes in decision making	171	(21)
Introduction	171	(1)
The nature of constructive processes	172	(5)
When will constructive processes be used?	177	(1)
Accuracy---effort tradeoffs and constructive processes	178	(2)
Noticing and exploiting regularities	180	(9)
Summary	189	(3)
When may adaptivity fail?	192	(26)
Introduction	192	(1)
Deficits in knowledge	193	(21)
Inability to execute strategies	214	(2)
Summary	216	(2)
Improving decisions and other practical matters	218	(30)
Introduction	218	(2)
Approaches to decision aiding	220	(19)
The measurement and prediction of preferences	239	(8)
Summary	247	(1)
The adaptive decision maker: A look backward and a look forward	248	(16)
Introduction	248	(1)
What have we learned?	248	(2)
New directions for future research	250	(13)
Summary	263	(1)
Appendix: The Mouselab system	264	(15)
Introduction	264	(2)
The mouse as pointing device	266	(2)
Overview of the Mouselab system	268	(10)
Summary	278	(1)
References	279	(30)
Name index	309	(6)
Subject index	315