Adaptive Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: In Pursuit of Virulence Management

by Edited by Ulf Dieckmann , Johan A. J. Metz , Maurice W. Sabelis , Karl Sigmund

• ISBN13: 9780521781657
• ISBN10: 0521781655
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-05-20
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

Emerging diseases pose a continual threat to public health. Short multiplication time and high variability allow pathogens to evolve very rapidly. It is therefore imperative to incorporate evolutionary considerations into longer-term health management plans. The evolution of infectious disease is also an ideal test-bed for theories of evolutionary dynamics. This book combines both threads, taking stock of our current knowledge on the evolutionary ecology of infectious diseases, and setting out the goals for the management of virulent pathogens. Throughout the book, the fundamental concepts and techniques underlying the modelling are carefully explained in a unique series of integrated boxes. The book ends with an overview of novel options for virulence management in humans, farm animals, plants, wildlife populations and biological control schemes. Written for graduate students and researchers, Adaptive Dynamics of Infectious Diseases provides an integrated treatment of mathematical evolutionary modelling and disease management.

Table of Contents

Contributing Authors	xiv
List of Boxes	xvi
Notational Standards	xvii
Introduction	1	(6)
Karl Sigmund
Maurice W. Sabelis
Ulf Dieckmann
Johan A.J. Metz
A Setting the Stage	7	(64)
Introduction to Part A	8	(2)
Alternative Transmission Modes and the Evolution of Virulence	10	(16)
Paul W. Ewald
Giulio De Leo
Introduction: Historical Background	10	(1)
Virulence Depending on Transmission Modes	11	(7)
Effects of Transmission Mode on Virulence	18	(1)
Model of Virulence Evolution and Waterborne Transmission	19	(5)
Discussion: Applications and Implications	24	(2)
Wildlife Perspectives on the Evolution of Virulence	26	(13)
Giulio De Leo
Andy Dobson
Andy Goodman
Introduction	26	(1)
Microparasites versus Macroparasites	27	(2)
Impact of Parasitism on Community Structure	29	(2)
Example: The pan-African Rinderpest Epidemic	31	(1)
Role of Genetic Diversity	32	(1)
Myxomatosis and the Coevolution of Virulence Traits	33	(1)
Evolutionary Race Between Host and Parasite	34	(1)
Multiple Infection Alters the Evolution of Virulence	35	(1)
Interspecific Transmission Influences Virulence	35	(1)
Example: Pasteurella Outbreaks in Bighorn Sheep	36	(1)
Potential Impact of Wildlife Diseases on Human Health	37	(1)
Discussion	38	(1)
Adaptive Dynamics of Pathogen-Host Interactions	39	(21)
Ulf Dieckmann
Introduction	39	(1)
Limitations of R0 Maximization	40	(4)
Adaptive Dynamics Theory	44	(1)
Pathogen Evolution	45	(9)
Pathogen-Host Coevolution	54	(3)
Discussion	57	(3)
Dilemmas in Virulence Management	60	(11)
Minus van Baalen
Introduction	60	(2)
Optimal Antiparasite Strategies	62	(3)
Parasite Evolutionary Responeses	65	(3)
Discussion	68	(3)
B Host Population Structure	71	(50)
Introduction to Part B	72	(2)
Variation in Susceptibility: Lessons from an Insect Virus	74	(11)
Greg Dwyer
Jonathan Dushoff
Joseph S. Elkinton
John P.Burand
Simon A. Levin
Introduction	74	(1)
Theory of Multigenerational Epidemics	75	(2)
Controlling Gypsy Moths by Genetically Engineered Viruses	77	(7)
Discussion	84	(1)
Contact Networks and the Evolution of Virulence	85	(19)
Minus van Baalen
Introduction	85	(5)
Epidemics on Contact Networks	90	(1)
Mean-field Dynamics	91	(1)
Across-network Dynamics	92	(2)
Pair Dynamics	94	(3)
Implications of Network Structure	97	(2)
Evolutionary Stability	99	(2)
Discussion	101	(3)
Virulence on the Edge: A Source-Sink Perspective	104	(17)
Robert D. Holt
Michael E. Hochberg
Introduction	104	(3)
Sources and Sinks: Pervasive in Host-Pathogen Systems?	107	(1)
A Limiting Case: Two Coupled Patches	108	(8)
On to Praxis	116	(2)
Discussion	118	(3)
C Within-Host Interactions	121	(58)
Introduction to Part C	122	(2)
Super-and Coinfection: The Two Extremes	124	(14)
Martin A. Nowak
Karl Sigmund
Introduction	124	(1)
Superinfection	125	(6)
Coinfection	131	(4)
Discussion	135	(3)
Super- and Coinfection: Filling the Range	138	(12)
Frederick R. Adler
Julio Mosquera Losada
Introduction	138	(1)
Coinfection and the Superinfection Limit	139	(4)
Coexistence and the Superinfection Function	143	(4)
Discussion	147	(3)
Multiple Infection and Its Consequences for Virulence Management	150	(15)
Sylvain Gandon
Yannis Michalakis
Introduction	150	(3)
Multiple Infection, Virulence, and Dispersal	153	(4)
Indirect Effects	157	(4)
Virulence Management	161	(2)
Discussion	163	(2)
Kin-selection Models as Evolutionary Explanations of Malaria	165	(14)
Andrew F. Read
Margaret J. Mackinnon
M. Ali Anwar
Louise H. Taylor
Introduction	165	(1)
Kin-selection Models of Virulence	166	(1)
Conditional Virulence Strategies	167	(4)
Genetically Fixed Virulence Strategies	171	(1)
Within-host Competition and Between-host Fitness	172	(5)
Management Implications	177	(1)
Discussion	178	(1)
D Pathogen-Host Coevolution	179	(98)
Introduction to Part D	180	(3)
Coevolution of Virus and Host Cell-death Signals	183	(14)
David C. Krakauer
Introduction	183	(1)
Mathematics of Cell Death	184	(3)
Evolutionary Dynamics of Cell-death Signals	187	(1)
Threshold Reversals	188	(1)
Experimental Case Studies	189	(3)
Lessons from Case Studies	192	(1)
Testing the Model	193	(1)
Medical Implications	194	(1)
Discussion	195	(1)
The Cell-death Model: Assessment of Extrema	195	(2)
Biogeographical Perspectives on Arms Races	197	(13)
Michael E. Hochberg
Robert D. Holt
Introduction	197	(1)
Importance of Species and Space in Population Dynamics	198	(1)
(Co)Evolution of Impact by Natural Enemies	199	(5)
Discussion	204	(6)
Major Histocompatibility Complex: Polymorphism from Coevolution	210	(12)
Joost B. Beltman
Jose A.M. Borghans
Rob J. de Boer
Introduction	210	(2)
Simulating the Coevolution of Hosts and Pathogens	212	(2)
Dynamically Maintained Polymorphism	214	(2)
Host and Pathogen Evolution	216	(3)
Heterozygosity versus Frequency-dependent Selection	219	(1)
Discussion	220	(2)
Virulence Management and Disease Resistance in Diploid Hosts	222	(11)
Viggo Andreasen
Introduction	222	(2)
Discrete-time Genetics and Epidemic Diseases	224	(3)
Discrete-time Genetics and Endemic Diseases	227	(1)
Continuous Genetic Models	228	(2)
Coevolution	230	(1)
Discussion	231	(2)
Coevolution in Gene-for-gene Systems	233	(15)
Akira Sasaki
Introduction	233	(1)
Gene-for-gene Interaction	234	(3)
Coevolutionary Dynamics in Gene-for-gene Systems	237	(7)
Discussion	244	(4)
Implications of Sexual Selection for Virulence Management	248	(14)
Claus Wedekind
Introduction: Sex and Coevolution	248	(2)
Sexual Selection	250	(2)
Hypotheses for Parasite-driven Sexual Selection	252	(5)
The Pathogen's View	257	(2)
Implications for Virulence Management	259	(1)
Discussion	260	(2)
Molecular Phylogenies and Virulence Evolution	262	(15)
Bruce Rannala
Introduction	262	(1)
Phylogenetic Tools	263	(4)
Case Studies	267	(8)
Discussion	275	(2)
E Multilevel Selection	277	(46)
Introduction to Part E	278	(2)
Weakened from Within: Intragenomic Conflict and Virulence	280	(6)
Rolf F. Hoekstra
Alfons J.M. Debets
Introduction	280	(1)
``Poky'' Mutations in Neurospora crassa	281	(1)
Senescence Plasmids in Fungi	281	(1)
Population Genetics of Senescence Plasmids: A Model	282	(1)
Intragenomic Conflict and Virulence Management	283	(1)
Discussion: Host Senescence and Pathogen Virulence	284	(2)
Ecology and Evolution of Chestnut Blight Fungus	286	(11)
Douglas R. Taylor
Introduction	286	(1)
Ecology and Evolution of Virulence with Hyperparasites	287	(4)
Chestnut Blight as a Pandemic in the USA	291	(1)
Hyperparasitism in the Chestnut Blight System	291	(1)
Previous Efforts at Virulence Management	292	(2)
Virulence Management: Suggestions from Theory	294	(2)
Discussion	296	(1)
Evolution of Exploitation and Defense in Tritrophic Interactions	297	(26)
Maurice W. Sabelis
Minus van Baalen
Bas Pels
Martijn Egas
Arne Janssen
Introduction	297	(2)
Spatial and Temporal Scales of Interaction	299	(1)
Predator-Herbivore Dynamics on Individual Plants	300	(7)
Tritrophic Game Theory and Metapopulation Dynamics	307	(11)
Discussion	318	(2)
Evolutionarily Stable Herbivore Emigration Rate	320	(3)
F Vaccines and Drugs	323	(52)
Introduction to Part F	324	(2)
Managing Antibiotic Resistance: What Models Tell Us?	326	(13)
Sebastian Bonhoeffer
Introduction	326	(1)
Evaluation of Drug Treatment Strategies	327	(1)
Dynamics of Infection: A Simple Model	327	(1)
The Steady State	328	(1)
Gauging Antibiotic Therapy	328	(3)
Treatment with Two Antibiotics: An Extended Model	331	(2)
Multiple Antibiotic Therapy	333	(2)
Discussion	335	(4)
Evolution of Vaccine-resistant Strains of Infectious Agents	339	(8)
Angela R. McLean
Introduction	339	(1)
Theoretical Framework	339	(5)
Case Studies from Infectious Diseases of Humans	344	(2)
Discussion	346	(1)
Pathogen Evolution: The Case of Malaria	347	(15)
Sunetra Gupta
Introduction	347	(1)
Maintenance of Pathogen Diversity in Single-locus Systems	347	(2)
Multilocus Antigenic Diversity with Genetic Exchange	349	(4)
Plasmodium falciparum: A Case Study	353	(5)
Impact of Vaccination	358	(2)
Discussion	360	(2)
Vaccination and Serotype Replacement	362	(13)
Marc Lipsitch
Introduction	362	(1)
Biology, Diversity, and Impact of Two Pharyngeal Pathogens	363	(1)
Conjugate Vaccines	364	(1)
Serotype Replacement	365	(1)
Role of Mathematical Models	366	(2)
Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines versus Hib Vaccines	368	(2)
Detection of Replacement: Design of Clinical Trials	370	(1)
Is Serotype Replacement Always Bad?	370	(2)
Limitations of the Models and Areas for Future Work	372	(2)
Discussion	374	(1)
G Perspectives for Virulence Management	375	(90)
Introduction to Part G	376	(3)
Taking Stock: Relating Theory to Experiment	379	(20)
Maurice W. Sabelis
Johan A.J. Metz
Introduction	379	(1)
Panoramic View of Virulence Evolution	380	(6)
Conceptual Issues	386	(3)
The Dialogue between Theorists and Empiricists	389	(4)
Gaps in Current Knowledge	393	(4)
Discussion: Toward Virulence management	397	(2)
Virulence Management in Humans	399	(14)
Paul W. Ewald
Conceptual Basis for Virulence Management	399	(1)
Virulence Management of Diarrheal Diseases	399	(5)
Virulence Management of Vectorborne Diseases	404	(5)
Virulence Management in Dwellings	409	(1)
Discussion: The Intervention Spectrum	409	(4)
Virulence Management in Wildlife Populations	413	(12)
Giulio De Leo
Andy Dobson
Introduction	413	(1)
Time Needed for Resistance to Evolve	413	(1)
Drugs and the Development of Resistance	414	(1)
Problems in Managing Virulence in Wildlife	415	(2)
Detecting the Impact of Infectious Diseases	417	(2)
Pathogens and Parasites with Reservoir Hosts	419	(1)
Manipulation of Infection at the Population Level	420	(1)
Disease Risks of Wildlife Translocations	421	(1)
Minimizing Disease Risks in Wildlife Translocations	422	(1)
Discussion	423	(2)
Virulence Management in Veterinary Epidemiology	425	(11)
Mart C.M. de Jong
Luc L.G. Janss
Introduction	425	(2)
Virulence Evolution Made Simple	427	(2)
Two-bag Model of Virulence Evolution	429	(3)
Toward Virulence Management	432	(3)
Discussion	435	(1)
Virulence Management in Plant-Pathogen Interactions	436	(12)
Andrew M. Jarosz
Introduction	436	(1)
Two-faced Virulence	437	(1)
Epidemiology, Genetics, and Evolution of Virulence	438	(5)
Population Structure and Virulence Management	443	(3)
Discussion	446	(2)
Virulence Management in Biocontrol Agents	448	(12)
Sam L. Elliot
Maurice W. Sabelis
Frederick R. Adler
Introduction	448	(1)
At What Level Should Virulence be Considered?	449	(2)
Is High Virulence Always Desirable?	451	(1)
Is High Virulence a Stable Trait in Biocontrol Practice?	452	(2)
How Can Virulence be Manipulated in the Field?	454	(1)
Does Mass Rearing Affect Field Virulence?	455	(1)
Pathogen Virulence Toward Herbivores and Their Predators	456	(1)
Ecological and Evolutionary Response of the Pest	457	(1)
Discussion	458	(2)
Epilogue	460	(5)
Ulf Dieckmann
Karl Sigmund
Maurice W. Sabelis
Johan A.J. Metz
References	465	(50)
Index	515