Advances in Business And Management Forecasting

by Lawrence; Geurts

• ISBN13: 9780762312818
• ISBN10: 0762312815
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-03-31
• Publisher: Elsevier Science & Technology

Summary

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications- and practitioner-oriented publication.The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.

Table of Contents

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS	ix
EDITORIAL BOARD	xi
PART A: FORECASTING AND THE SUPPLY CHAIN
FORECASTING IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
Kenneth D. Lawrence, Sheila M. Lawrence and Ronald K. Klimberg	3	(10)
EXTRACTING FORECASTS FROM ADVANCE ORDERS
Frenck Waage	13	(14)
INVENTORY-SHIPMENT RATIO TIME SERIES MODELS FOR DURABLE AND NON-DURABLE PRODUCTS
Supriya Mitra	27	(30)
PART B: FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL APPLICATIONS
AN APPLICATION OF CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS TO THE A PRIORI CLASSIFICATION OF FINANCIAL RATIOS
Shaw K. Chen and Alan D. Olinsky	57	(20)
BANK RATING CHANGE PREDICTIONS: ALTERNATIVE FORECASTING MODELS
David T. Cadden and Vincent Driscoll	77	(16)
FORECASTING SECURITY RETURNS: THE USE OF HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS
Rebecca Abraham and Charles W. Harrington	93	(26)
PART C: SALES FORECASTING
COMBINING MOVING AVERAGES WITH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TO PRODUCE MORE STABLE SALES FORECASTS
Tej S. Dhakar, Charles P. Schmidt and David M. Miller	119	(14)
IMPROVED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING WITH APPLICATIONS TO SALES FORECASTING
Tej S. Dhakar, Charles P. Schmidt and David M. Miller	133	(6)
USING FLOW-THROUGH AND DIFFUSION MODELS TO FORECAST NEW PRODUCT SALES
Michael D. Geurts and David B. Whitlark	139	(6)
AN APPLICATION OF A REPEAT PURCHASE DIFFUSION MODEL TO THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY
Franklin J. Carter, Carol M. Motley, Alphonso O. Ogbuehi and Jacqueline A. Williams	145	(30)
FORECASTING PRODUCT SALES WITH CONJOINT ANALYSIS DATA
David B. Whitlark	175	(8)
IMPROVING SALES FORECASTS BY TESTING UNDERLYING HYPOTHESES ABOUT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR: A PROPOSED QUALITATIVE METHOD
Eric D. DeRosia, Glenn L. Christensen and David B. Whitlark	183	(32)
PART D: FORECASTING METHODS AND ANALYSIS
FORECASTING SALES OF COMPARABLE UNITS WITH DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS (DEA)
Ronald K. Klimberg, Shelia M. Lawrence and Kenneth D. Lawrence 201
DATA MINING RELIABILITY: MODEL-BUILDING WITH MARS AND NEURAL NETWORKS
Rod J. Lievano and Eric S. Kyper	215	(28)
SELECTING FORECASTING INTERVALS TO INCREASE USEFULNESS AND ACCURACY
Michael D. Geurts	243	(4)
FORECASTING SIMULTANEOUS BRAND LIFE CYCLE TRAJECTORIES
Frenck Waage	247	(18)
A TYPOLOGY OF PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES IN FORECASTING ANALYSIS
Paul Dishman	265	(12)
A FORECAST COMBINATION METHODOLOGY FOR DEMAND FORECASTING
J. Gaylord May and Joanne M. Sulek	277