After the Spring Economic Transitions in the Arab World

by Amin, Magdi; Assaad, Ragui; al-Baharna, Nazar; Dervis, Kemal; Desai, Raj M.; Dhillon, Navtej S.; Galal, Ahmed; Ghanem, Hafez; Graham, Carol

• ISBN13: 9780199924929
• ISBN10: 0199924929
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2012-03-27
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

The Arab Spring constitutes perhaps the most far-reaching political and economic transition since the end of communism in Europe. For too long, the economic aspirations of the people in the region, especially young people, have been ignored by leaders in Arab countries and abroad. Competing views as to how best to meet these aspirations are now being debated in the region. The outcome will shape Arab societies for generations to come. The authors of this book argue that significant economic reforms must accompany the major political transitions that are underway. Although each country has a different economic structure and history and must make its own way forward, there are spill-overs from trade and investment linkages, the contagion of news cycles, interaction of people and sharing of expectations that are too great to ignore. Some common foundation of the new Arab economies is needed. Towards that end, this volume addresses four central challenges of economic reform in the Arab world. First, with two-thirds of the population under the age of 30, the disproportionate burdens of unemployment and poor education can no longer be heaped on youth. Second, while some government policies may have improved the living standards of Arab citizens in the past, they have also entrenched cronies, enriched a small elite, and become unaffordable. Third, if Arab economies are to compete in the 21st century they cannot depend solely on oil and gas money, remittances, and tourism, but will require active, independent private sectors. And finally, the relative isolation of Arab economies-both from each other and from the world-must end. Rather than providing specific lists of recommendations, this book sets forth a set of guidelines and priorities for reformers who will begin creating new opportunities for youth, rebuilding the institutions of the state, diversifying the private sector, and cooperating with each other and integrating with the world economy.

Author Biography

Magdi Amin is Manager, Investment Climate Advisory Services, Middle East and North Africa Region, International Finance Corporation. Ragui Assaad is Professor of Planning and Public Affairs, University of Minnesota. Nazar al-Baharna is former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Bahrain. Kemal Dervis is Vice President. Brookings Institution. Raj M. Desai is Associate Professor of International Development, Georgetown University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution. Navtej S. Dhillon is former director, Middle East Youth Initiative, Wolfensohn Center for Development, Brookings Institution Ahmed Galal is Managing Director, Economic Research Forum. Hafez Ghanem is Assistant Director-General, Food and Agriculture Organization. Carol Graham is Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution. Daniel Kaufmann is Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution. Homi Kharas is Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution. John Page is Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution. Djavad Salehi-lsfahani is Professor of Economics, Virginia Tech University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution. Katherine Sierra is Senior Fellow. Brookings Institution. Tarik M. Yousef is CEO, Silatech and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. vii
Introduction	p. 1
Remaking the Arab Economies	p. 2
What Kind of Reform?	p. 10
New Transitions, New Directions: Outline of the Volume	p. 17
What Next? Stability, Confidence, and Credibility	p. 26
The Origins of the Arab Spring	p. 31
The Unraveling Arab Social Contract	p. 32
The Legacy of the Arab Polity	p. 40
Partial Reform and International Experiences	p. 44
Myths and Realities in Transition	p. 50
Opportunities for Young People	p. 54
Basic Demographic Trends	p. 55
Employment: Young and Waiting	p. 56
Education: Right Intentions, Wrong Outcomes	p. 60
Transition Challenge: Evening out the Burden of Adjustment	p. 70
Building a Modern State	p. 80
Fiscal Reform	p. 81
Public Sector Employment	p. 91
Getting Good Government	p. 96
Transforming the Private Sector	p. 106
A Structural Deficit in the Non-Oil Sector	p. 108
Can the Arab World Compete?	p. 124
Moving Forward with Private Sector Reform	p. 126
Strategic Choices in Private Sector Reform	p. 131
New Regional and Global Strategies	p. 140
Integrating with the Region and the World	p. 142
Regional Infrastructure Cooperation	p. 151
A Role for International Actors?	p. 155
Index	p. 175
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