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Agent-Based Computational Demography (ABCD) aims at starting a new stream of research among social scientists whose interests lie in understanding demographic behaviour. The book takes a micro-demographic (agent-based) perspective and illustrates the potentialities of computer simulation as an aid in theory building. The chapters of the book, written by leading experts either in demography or in agent-based modelling, address several key questions. Why do we need agent-based computational demography? How can ABCD be applied to the study of migrations, family demography, and historical demography? What are the peculiarities of agent-based models as applied to the demography of human populations? ABCD is of interest to all scientists interested in studying demographic behaviour, as well as to computer scientists and modellers who are looking for a promising field of application.

Introduction: Agent-Based Computational Demography

1

(18)

Francesco C. Billari, Fausta Ongaro and Alexia Prskawetz

1 Introduction: Demographers Are Almost Absent in a Flourishing Field of Research

1

(2)

2 The Gap Between Theory and Techniques in Demography

3

(1)

3 The Added Gains of Agent-Based Computational Demography

4

(2)

4 Difficulties and Challenges for Agent-Based Computational Demography

6

(1)

5 Agent-Based Models in Demography: Examples in this Book

6

(5)

6 Discussion: The Potential Roles of Agent-Based Computational Demography

11

(4)

References

15

(4)

Data, Models, Theory and Reality: The Structure of Demographic Knowledge

19

(22)

Thomas K. Burch

1 Introduction

19

(3)

2 The Methodology of Ansley J. Coate

22

(5)

3 Nathan Keyfitz on the Fruitfulness of Abstract Modelling

27

(1)

4 A Model-Based View of Science

28

(4)

5 Elements of Science

32

(3)

6 Assessing Scientific Knowledge

35

(2)

7 Coda: On the Dangers of Dichotomies

37

(2)

References

39

(2)

The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Demographic Explanation

41

(14)

Edmund Chattoe

1 Introduction

41

(1)

2 The Problem of Thin Social Processes

42

(4)

3 The Problem of Relating Existing Theories to ABM

46

(1)

4 Representing Social Context

47

(1)

5 Representing Cognitive Complexity

48

(3)

6 Collecting Appropriate Data

51

(1)

7 Conclusion

52

(1)

References

53

(2)

Diffusion Processes in Demographic Transitions: A Prospect on Using Multi Agent Simulation to Explore the Role of Cognitive Strategies and Social Interactions

55

(18)

Wander Jager and Marco A. Janssen

1 Introduction

55

(3)

2 Behavioural Rules in MAS

58

(1)

3 Decision Making

59

(3)

4 The Consumat Approach

62

(2)

5 A Possible Application of the Consumat Approach: The Diffusion of Contraceptives

64

(3)

6 Prospects for Applications of the Consumat Approach in Demographic Research Questions

67

(2)

7 Conclusions

69

(1)

References

70

(3)

The Collapse of the Berlin Wall: Simulating State-Level East to West German Migration Patterns

73

(24)

Frank Heiland

1 Introduction

73

(1)

2 Historical Background

74

(1)

3 Evidence on East to West German Migration

75

(1)

4 Theoretical Framework

76

(1)

5 Data and Stylized Facts

77

(5)

6 An Agent-Based Simulation Model

82

(10)

7 Conclusions

92

(1)

References

93

(4)

Agent-Based Modeling of Householders' Migration Behavior and Its Consequences

97

(20)

Itzhak Benenson, Itzhak Omer and Erez Hatraa

1 Introduction

97

(1)

2 Agent-Based Modelling as a Tool for Analysis of Complex Multi-Agent Systems

98

(4)

3 Abstract Models of Residential Migration

102

(1)

4 A Real-World Agent-Based Model of Residential Choice and Migration

103

(9)

5 Discussion

112

(1)

6 Conclusions

112

(1)

References

113

(4)

Population-Wide Marriage Patterns Produced by Individual Mate-Search Heuristics

117

(22)

Peter M. Todd and Francesco C. Billarf

1 Introduction

117

(1)

2 The Demographic Patterns of Age at Marriage

118

(5)

3 Modeling Sequential Search Processes

123

(12)

4 Implications and Conclusions

135

(1)

References

136

(3)

On the Cultural Evolution of Age-at-Marriage Norms

139

(20)

Francesco C. Bipari, Alexia Prskawetz and Johannes Furnkranz

1 Introduction

139

(1)

2 Background

140

(3)

3 An Agent-Based Model

143

(3)

4 Results and Discussion

146

(9)

5 Summary and Prospects for Future Research

155

(1)

References

156

(3)

Bringing Behavior Back into Micro-Simulation: Feedback Mechanisms in Demographic Models

159

(16)

Mike Murphy

1 Introduction

159

(5)

2 Data and Methods

164

(2)

3 Results

166

(6)

4 Summary of Findings

172

(1)

References

173

(2)

Consequences of Mortality Crises in Pre-Modern European Towns: A Multiagent-Based Simulation Approach

175

(22)

Ulf Christian Ewert, Mathias Roehl and Adelinde M. Uhrmacher

1 Introduction

175

(2)

2 James

177

(1)

3 Implementation in James

177

(8)

4 First Experiments and Some Preliminary Results

185

(8)

5 Conclusions and Future Prospects of the Model

193

(1)

References

194

(3)

Agents, Hierarchies and Sustainability

197

Andreas Konig, Michael Mohring and Klaus G. Troitzsch

1 Setting: A Sugarscape-Like Grid

197

(3)

2 Agents: Overview

200

(6)

3 Experiments

206

(3)

4 Conclusion

209

(1)

References

210

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