Alliance Diversification and the Future of the U. S. -Korean Security Relationship

by Perry, Charles M.

• ISBN13: 9781574888959
• ISBN10: 1574888951
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2004-08-04
• Publisher: Potomac Books Inc

Summary

The U.S.-South Korean alliance faces significant challenges caused by transitions in both countries, including political and demographic change in South Korea and fast-paced adjustments to America's national security strategy in the face of a new global and regional strategic landscape. These are stressful circumstances, but they also present opportunities for improving alliance relations. Careful planning and effective communication at various levels (including the public level) is needed to minimize the stress and to capitalize on the opportunities. The study examines the complex dynamics at work and explores how U.S. policymakers can work with their counterparts in Seoul to diversify the alliance and prepare it to better serve the national interests of both the United States and a future united Korea.

Table of Contents

Illustrations	vi
Foreword	vii
Preface	xii
Chapter One The Shifting Landscape in a New Century	1	(17)
The Challenge for American Policy Makers	4	(3)
Summary of Conclusions	7	(11)
Chapter Two U.S.-ROK Relations in an Era of Transition and Transformation	18	(18)
Political Transitions within South Korea	20	(3)
Demographic Transitions within South Korea	23	(2)
Transformation of American Foreign and Security Policy	25	(4)
Other External Influences	29	(1)
The Push and Pull of the U.S.-ROK Relationship	30	(6)
Chapter Three A Decade of Analysis	36	(16)
Clinton-Era Analysis	37	(2)
Adjusting to the Post-Post-Cold War Era	39	(3)
Adjusting to the New Century	42	(5)
Toward an Integrated Analysis	47	(5)
Chapter Four America's Ideal U.S.-ROK Alliance	52	(23)
Global Considerations, Regionally Tailored	53	(6)
Alliance Stability	53	(1)
Flexible Force Structure, Aligned with Global Priorities	54	(3)
Share the Burden for Efficiency and Effectiveness	57	(2)
Building a Coalition of Allies and Partners for Regional Security	59	(16)
Coalition Management	63	(2)
Coalition Functions	65	(2)
The U.S.-ROK Role in a Coalition	67	(8)
Chapter Five Competing Priorities and Complicating Factors in the United States	75	(30)
Ambiguities of Transformation and Force Realignment	76	(16)
Too Many Dependent Variables	76	(5)
Strategy and Technology	81	(4)
The Debate over Command Structure	85	(3)
All or Nothing for the USFK?	88	(4)
Election Year Politics	92	(3)
Policy Differences over North Korea	95	(10)
U.S. and ROK Perspectives	95	(2)
Working Toward Rollback	97	(3)
Crisis and Opportunity	100	(5)
Chapter Six Possible ROK Complications and Incentives for Alliance Diversification	105	(22)
Anti-Americanism or Nationalism (or Both)	106	(5)
ROK Attitudes and the USFK	111	(3)
Trade and Economic Considerations	114	(6)
Factoring in Energy Security	120	(7)
Chapter Seven Perspectives from Around the Region	127	(30)
China-North Korea Relations	128	(5)
China-South Korea Relations	133	(3)
China's Long-Term Perspectives	136	(5)
Japan and the Korean Peninsula	141	(2)
Japan and the DPRK	143	(4)
Japan-ROK Relations	147	(1)
Japan's Integrated Long-Term Strategy	148	(4)
Implications	152	(5)
Chapter Eight Options for a U.S. Military Transition on the Peninsula	157	(39)
U.S.-ROK FOTA Negotiations	158	(7)
"Fight Tomorrow Morning?"	165	(5)
Looking to Future Alternatives	170	(26)
Alternative 1: Recessed Security Posture	172	(4)
Alternative 2: Naval and Air Power Posture	176	(7)
Alternative 3: Regional/Hemispheric Posture	183	(5)
Implications of the Three Alternatives	188	(8)
Chapter Nine Conclusions and Recommendations	196	(21)
Establishing a Broader, Deeper Dialogue for the Short and Long Term	199	(4)
The First Steps toward a Post-Unification Force Structure	203	(6)
Building a Regional Coalition to Fight Terrorism and Promote Stability	209	(2)
Strengthening the Non-Military Aspects of the Bilateral Relationship	211	(3)
Realizing Alliance Diversification	214	(3)
Abbreviations and Acronyms	217	(2)
About the Authors and the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis	219
Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of Korea & the United States of America	A1