Analyzing Public Policy

by Gupta, Dipak K.

• ISBN13: 9781568025551
• ISBN10: 1568025556
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-05-01
• Publisher: Cq Pr

Table of Contents

Tables, Figures, and ``A Case in Point''	xv
Preface	xxi
Introduction	1	(19)
The Study of Public Policy	2	(11)
Four Models of Policy Analysis	3	(2)
Economic Rationality, Quantitative Analyses, and Human Behavior	5	(6)
Value Judgments	11	(2)
Ethics and Public Policy Making	13	(4)
Value Neutrality: Fact or Fiction?	14	(2)
Value Conflict	16	(1)
Key Words	17	(1)
Exercises	17	(1)
Notes	17	(3)
Government and the Market	20	(26)
The Fundamental Contributions of Economic Analyses	22	(4)
Economic Rationality	23	(1)
Marginal Analysis	23	(3)
Opportunity Costs	26	(1)
Market Failure: Why Government Interferes in a Free Market	26	(7)
Lack of Competition	27	(1)
Barriers to Entry and Exit	28	(2)
Restricted Flow of Information	30	(1)
Externalities and Social Costs	30	(2)
Rising Service Costs: The Appearance of Market Failure	32	(1)
Government as a Partner	33	(1)
Government Failure	34	(5)
Inability to Define Social Welfare	34	(1)
Limits of Democracy and the Paradox of Voting	35	(1)
Inability to Define the Marginal Benefits and Costs of Public Goods	36	(1)
Political Constraints	36	(1)
Cultural Constraints	37	(1)
Institutional Constraints	37	(1)
Legal Constraints	37	(1)
Knowledge Constraints	38	(1)
Analytical Constraints	38	(1)
Timing of Policies	38	(1)
Limiting Government Intervention: Joint Partnership in a Mixed Economy	39	(4)
Stimulating the Market	39	(1)
Simulating the Market	40	(3)
Key Words	43	(1)
Exercises	43	(1)
Notes	44	(2)
The Policy Process	46	(24)
Agenda Setting	47	(9)
The Pluralist Model	49	(1)
The Elitist Model	50	(3)
Impact of Sensational Events	53	(2)
Evaluating Costs and Benefits	55	(1)
Policy Formulation	56	(4)
Explaining Behavior	57	(1)
Forecasting Effects	58	(1)
Conflict, Inaction, and Nondecision	58	(2)
Policy Adoption	60	(1)
Policy Implementation	61	(2)
Policy Evaluation	63	(1)
Policy Change	64	(1)
Policy Termination	65	(1)
Key Words	66	(1)
Exercises	67	(1)
Notes	67	(3)
Critical Thinking and Research Design	70	(32)
Five Steps of Objective Analysis	71	(3)
Setting Goals	74	(5)
Utilitarians and the Pareto Principle	76	(1)
The Kaldor-Hicks Compensation Principle	77	(1)
The Rawlsian Challenge	78	(1)
Choosing a Method of Analysis	79	(6)
Experimental Design	80	(1)
Quasi-Experimental Design	81	(4)
Choosing the Right Model	85	(1)
Designing Policy Research	86	(4)
Limiting the Number of Alternatives	86	(1)
Accepting or Rejecting a Project	87	(3)
Ensuring the Process Is Fair	90	(1)
Making Quick Decisions	90	(2)
Challenges to Critical Thinking: Biases in Reasoning	92	(5)
Representativeness	92	(3)
Availability of Information	95	(2)
Biases of Adjustment and Anchoring	97	(1)
A Few Parting Suggestions	97	(1)
Key Words	98	(1)
Exercises	99	(1)
Notes	99	(3)
Basic Statistics	102	(20)
Numbers as Storytellers	102	(1)
The Building Blocks of Quantitative Analysis	102	(1)
Methods of Descriptive Statistics	103	(15)
Measures of Central Tendency	104	(5)
Measures of Dispersion	109	(7)
Which Measures of Central Tendency to Use	116	(1)
A Quick Glance at the Distribution: The Stem-Leaf Method	116	(2)
Correlation Coefficient: Pearson's R	118	(2)
Key Words	120	(1)
Exercises	120	(1)
Notes	121	(1)
Probability and Hypothesis Testing	122	(27)
Objective Probability	122	(19)
Probability Distribution	125	(4)
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals	129	(8)
The Chi-Squared Test	137	(4)
Subjective Probability	141	(2)
Key Words	143	(1)
Exercises	144	(4)
Notes	148	(1)
Sources of Data	149	(27)
What Are We Measuring?	150	(2)
Types of Measurement	150	(1)
Accuracy of the Measuring Scales	151	(1)
Primary Data: Conducting a Survey	152	(11)
Designing a Survey	153	(1)
Systematic Errors in Sampling	153	(3)
Random Sampling Errors	156	(2)
Choosing the Sample Population	158	(1)
Choosing the Size of the Sample	159	(1)
Choosing Effective Survey Instruments	160	(2)
Choosing Polling Methods	162	(1)
Quantification of Survey Data	163	(1)
Reporting of Survey Results	163	(1)
Conducting Focus Groups	164	(2)
Secondary Data	166	(7)
Searching for Information	167	(1)
Online Searches	167	(5)
Searching the Old-Fashioned Way	172	(1)
When Data Are Not Available	173	(1)
Key Words	173	(1)
Exercises	173	(1)
Notes	174	(2)
Making Sense of Numbers	176	(24)
A Picture's Worth: The Graphical Methods of Analysis	177	(10)
Current vs. Constant Dollars	177	(4)
Percentage Change	181	(1)
Creating an Index	182	(2)
Choosing the Type of Graph to Use	184	(2)
Graphical Methods in Decision Making	186	(1)
To Tell the Truth and Nothing but the Truth	187	(8)
Interpretation and Deception	190	(5)
Tabular Presentation of Data	195	(1)
Those Not-So-Innocent Numbers	195	(2)
Structure Above a Swamp	197	(1)
Key Words	198	(1)
Exercises	198	(1)
Notes	199	(1)
Projection Techniques: When History Is Inadequate	200	(25)
Projection Versus Causal Prediction	200	(2)
Inadequacy of History	202	(6)
Single-Factor Projection	202	(2)
Fiscal Impact Analysis	204	(2)
Problems of Single-Factor Analysis	206	(2)
Judgmental Methods of Projection	208	(14)
The Delphi Technique	208	(4)
The Feasibility Assessment Technique	212	(6)
The Expected Utility Model	218	(3)
Origin of the Numbers	221	(1)
Shortcomings of the Judgmental Methods	221	(1)
Key Words	222	(1)
Exercises	222	(1)
Notes	223	(2)
Projection Techniques: Analysis of Historical Data	225	(20)
The Components of a Data Series	226	(3)
The Patterns of Time Trend	229	(2)
Adjustment Methods	231	(4)
Seasonal Adjustment	232	(2)
Trend Adjustment	234	(1)
Smoothing Out the Fluctuations	235	(5)
Projecting the Immediate Past: Naive Projection	236	(2)
Projecting by the Mean	238	(1)
Moving Average	238	(2)
Choice of Projection Technique	240	(1)
The Politics of Forecasting	240	(2)
Key Words	242	(1)
Exercises	242	(2)
Notes	244	(1)
Projection Techniques: The Methods of Simple and Multiple Least Squares	245	(45)
The Logic of Least Squares Method	246	(4)
Linear Time Trend: Simple Regression Model	250	(10)
Accuracy of the Results	253	(1)
High R2	254	(1)
Relevance of the Estimated Coefficients	255	(1)
The Significance of Individual Coefficients	256	(3)
Presentation of Estimation Results	259	(1)
The Number of Observations	259	(1)
Trend Changes: Building Multiple Regression Models	260	(9)
Abrupt Changes in Trend	261	(4)
Abrupt Changes in Slope	265	(4)
Gradual Changes in Trend: Estimation of Nonlinear Trends	269	(10)
Polynomial Forms	269	(3)
Higher-Order Polynomials	272	(1)
Log-Transformed Forms	273	(2)
Inverse Forms	275	(1)
The Problem of Irrelevant Independent Variables: Adjusted R2	276	(2)
The Significance of Coefficients Taken Together	278	(1)
Choosing the Correct Functional Form	278	(1)
Forecasting and Its Problems	279	(3)
Point Forecasts	279	(1)
Internal Forecasts	280	(2)
Explaining the Present with the Past: Lagged Dependent Variables	282	(2)
Forecasting by Curve Fitting: A Step-by-Step Approach	284	(1)
Key Words	285	(1)
Exercises	285	(3)
Notes	288	(2)
Models of Causal Prediction: Multiple Regression	290	(40)
Building a Causal Model	291	(2)
Causality Versus Co-occurrence	293	(1)
Estimation of the Model	294	(2)
How Good Is the Model?	296	(11)
Choosing Independent Variables	296	(6)
Searching for the Proper List of Independent Variables	302	(1)
Predicting on the Basis of the Wrong Functional Specification	303	(4)
When Regression Results Are Suspect: The Errors of Estimation	307	(18)
Identifying Multicollinearity	307	(5)
Resolving Multicollinearity	312	(2)
Identifying Serial Correlation	314	(2)
Heteroskedasticity: The Problem of Scaling Variables	316	(2)
Detecting Heteroskedasticity	318	(2)
Effects of Heteroskedasticity	320	(1)
Correcting Heteroskedasticity	320	(1)
When the Data Are Imperfect	321	(1)
Beta Coefficient: Measuring the Relative Strength of the Independent Variables	322	(3)
Summary: Step-by-Step Suggestions for Building a Model of Causal Prediction	325	(1)
Key Words	325	(1)
Exercises	326	(2)
Notes	328	(2)
The Elements of Strategic Thinking: Decision Tree and Game Theory	330	(27)
Getting a Grip on Uncertainity	331	(2)
Decision Making and Expected Payoff	333	(1)
The Decision Tree	333	(10)
Structuring a Decision Tree	336	(1)
Evaluating Flood Damage Reduction	336	(6)
Risk Tolerance and Expected Payoff	342	(1)
Two Active Players: Game Theory	343	(8)
Game Theory in Local Government Decision Making	348	(2)
The Golden Rules of Decision Making under Uncertainty	350	(1)
Strategies to Overcome the Prisoner's Dilemma	351	(2)
Other Strategies: Trust and Bargaining	353	(1)
Key Words	353	(1)
Excercises	353	(2)
Notes	355	(2)
Choosing the Best Alternative: Cost-Benefit Analysis	357	(27)
Social versus Private Cost-Benefit Analysis	359	(1)
Defining Goals	359	(1)
Identifying Alternatives	359	(1)
Listing Costs and Benefits of the Alternatives	360	(1)
Estimation and Valuation of Benefits and Costs	361	(6)
Can We Put a Price Tag on the Intangibles of Life?	363	(2)
How Can We Measure Future Loss or Gain?	365	(2)
Introduction of Time: Present Value Analysis	367	(9)
Choice of Time Horizon	371	(1)
Choice of Discount Rate	372	(3)
The Internal Rate of Return	375	(1)
Choosing the Best Alternative	376	(5)
Sensitivity Analysis	376	(1)
Cost-Benefit Ratio	377	(1)
The Limits of Cost-Benefit Analysis Redistribution of Income	378	(1)
Cost-Effective Analysis	379	(2)
Key Words	381	(1)
Exercises	382	(1)
Notes	383	(1)
The ``Good Enough'' Policy Analyst	384	(3)
Notes	386	(1)
Appendix A Areas of the Standard Normal Distribution (the Z table)	387	(1)
Appendix B Critical Values of the Distribution	388	(1)
Appendix C Critical Values of the FStatistic: 5 Percent Level of Significance	389	(1)
Appendix D Critical Values of the FStatistic: 1 Percent Level of Significance	390	(1)
Appendix E The Chi-Square Distribution	391	(2)
Index	393