Annotated Readings in the History of Statistics

by David, H. A.; Edwards, A. W. F.

• ISBN13: 9780387988443
• ISBN10: 0387988440
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-04-01
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

This book provides a selection of pioneering papers or extracts ranging from Pascal (1654) to R.A. Fisher (1930). The authors' annotations put the articles in perspective for the modern reader. A special feature of the book is the large number of translations, nearly all made by the authors. The selected articles vary considerably in difficulty, some requiring only a basic understanding of statistical concepts, whereas others surprise by their early sophistication in "classical" statistics.There are several reasons for studying the history of statistics: intrinsic interest in how the field of statistics developed, learning from often brilliant ideas and not reinventing the wheel, and livening up general courses in statistics by reference to important contributors.Herbert A. David is Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Department of Statistics, Iowa State University and served as Department Head from 1972 to 184. He was Editor of Biometric from 1967 to 1972 and President of Biometric Society for 1982-1983. His publications include books on Order Statistics (Wiley 1970, 1981) and The Method of Paired Comparisons (Griffin 1963, 1988). Apart from articles in these two areas he has written on statistical inference, experimental designs, competing risks, and the history of statistics. He received a Ph.D. in statistics from University College London in 1953.A.W.F. Edwards is Reader in Biometry in the University of Cambridge. He was President of the British Region of the Biometric Society in 1992-1994 and is Chairman of the Christiaan Huygens Committee for the History of Statistics of the International Statistical Institute. His publications include the books Likelihood (Cambridge University Press 1972, Johns Hopkins University Press 1992), Foundations of Mathematical Genetics (Cambridge University Press 1977, 2000), and Pascal's Arithmetical Triangle (Griffin 1987). He holds the degrees of Ph.D. and Sc.D. from Cambridge University.

Author Biography

A. W. F. Edwards is Professor of Biometry at Cambridge University.

Table of Contents

Preface	ix
Sources and Acknowledgments	xiii
General Note on the Translations	xv
The Introduction of the Concept of Expectation: Comments on Pascal (1654)	1	(6)
The First Formal Test of Significance: Comments on Arbuthnott (1710)	7	(12)
Coincidences and the Method of Inclusion and Exclusion: Comments on Montmort (1713), N. Bernoulli (1713), and de Moivre (1718)	19	(18)
On the Game of Thirteen	25	(6)
P. R. de Montmort
Letter from Nicholas Bernoulli to Montmort on the Game of Thirteen, reproduced in Montmort (1713, p. 301)	31	(1)
The Doctrine of Chances, Problem XXV	32	(5)
A. de Moivre
The Determination of the Accuracy of Observations: Comments on Gauss (1816)	37	(14)
The Determination of the Accuracy of Observations	41	(10)
C. F. Gauss
The Introduction of Asymptotic Relative Efficiency: Comments on Laplace (1818)	51	(14)
On the Probability of Results Deduced by Methods of any Kind from a Large Number of Observations	57	(8)
P. S. Laplace
The Logistic Growth Curve: Comments on Verhulst (1845)	65	(12)
Mathematical Investigations on the Law of Population Growth	69	(8)
P.-F. Verhulst
Goodness-of-Fit Statistics: The Distributions in Normal Samples of (a) the Sum of Squares About the Population Mean, (b) the Circular Sum of Squares of Successive Differences, and (c) the Circular Serial Correlation Coefficient: Comments on Abbe (1863)	77	(26)
On the Conformity-to-a-Law of the Distribution of Errors in a Series of Observations	81	(22)
E. Abbe
The Distribution of the Sample Variance Under Normality: Comments on Helmert (1876b)	103	(12)
The Calculation of the Probable Error from the Squares of the Adjusted Direct Observations of Equal Precision and Fechner's Formula	109	(6)
F. R. Helmert
The Random Walk and Its Fractal Limiting Form: Comments on Venn (1888)	115	(14)
Estimating a Binomial Parameter Using the Likelihood Function: Comments on Thiele (1889)	129	(8)
Yule's Paradox (``Simpson's Paradox''): Comments on Yule (1903)	137	(8)
Beginnings of Extreme-Value Theory: Comments on Bortkiewicz (1922a) and von Mises (1923)	145	(16)
Range and Standard Deviation	151	(4)
L. von Bortkiewicz
On the Range of a Series of Observations	155	(6)
R. von Mises
The Evaluation of Tournament Outcomes: Comments on Zermelo (1929)	161	(26)
The Evaluation of Tournament Results as a Maximization Problem in Probability Theory	167	(20)
E. Zermelo
The Origin of Confidence Limits: Comments on Fisher (1930)	187	(16)
Appendix A. English Translations of Papers and Book Extracts of Historical Interest	203	(6)
Appendix B. First (?) Occurrence of Common Terms in Statistics and Probability	209	(38)
Subject Index	247	(4)
Name Index	251