Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis

by Pole; Andy

• ISBN13: 9780412044014
• ISBN10: 0412044013
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1994-09-01
• Publisher: Chapman & Hall/

Summary

Practical in its approach, Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis provides the theories, methods, and tools necessary for forecasting and the analysis of time series. The authors unify the concepts, model forms, and modeling requirements within the framework of the dynamic linear mode (DLM). They include a complete theoretical development of the DLM and illustrate each step with analysis of time series data. Using real data sets the authors: Explore diverse aspects of time series, including how to identify, structure, explain observed behavior, model structures and behaviors, and interpret analyses to make informed forecasts Illustrate concepts such as component decomposition, fundamental model forms including trends and cycles, and practical modeling requirements for routine change and unusual events Conduct all analyses in the BATS computer programs, furnishing online that program and the more than 50 data sets used in the text The result is a clear presentation of the Bayesian paradigm: quantified subjective judgements derived from selected models applied to time series observations. Accessible to undergraduates, this unique volume also offers complete guidelines valuable to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students in statistics, operations research, and engineering.

Table of Contents

DYNAMIC BAYESIAN MODELLING THEORY AND APPLICATIONS

Practical Modelling and Forecasting

Methodological Framework

Analysis of the DLM

Review of Distribution Theory

Classical Time Series Models

Application: Turkey Chick Sales

Application: Market Share

Application: Marriages in Greece

Further Examples and Exercises

INTERACTIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Installing BATS

Tutorial: Introduction to BATS

Files and Directories

Tutorial: Introduction to Modelling

Tutorial: Tutorial: Advanced Modelling

Tutorial: Modelling with Incomplete Data

Tutorial: Data Management

BATS REFERENCE

Communications

Menu Descriptions