Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications

by Wolf, Charles; Bamezai, Anil; Yeh, K. C.; Zycher, Benjamin

• ISBN13: 9780833028617
• ISBN10: 0833028618
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-11-09
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

As the final product of a project dealing with the security implications of Asia's financial and economic turmoil, this report considers the sharp economic reversals suffered in the Asian region in 1997 and 1998 and the marked but widely varying evidence of significant recovery among the different countries of the region. The report then turns to the medium- and longer-term trends with respect to economic growth, military spending, and military investment in five countries in the greater Asian area: namely, Japan, China, India, South Korea, and Indonesia. The five countries were selected by agreement with the sponsors from a larger set addressed in RAND's previous analyses in 1989 and 1995 of long-term economic and military trends. India, a South Asian country, was included along with the four principal East Asian countries in light of its size and enhanced military prominence.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Updating and Improving Previous Estimates in Light of Changed Conditions	1	(4)
Asia's Economic Turmoil and the Varied Record of Recovery	5	(4)
The ``Crisis'' Countries: Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia	5	(2)
Japan	7	(1)
China	7	(1)
Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong	8	(1)
Principal Forecast Results	9	(16)
Methods and Data	9	(4)
Gross Domestic Product	13	(3)
Per-Capita GDP	16	(2)
Military Spending	18	(2)
Military Capital	20	(5)
Estimates for the Five Countries, 2000--2015	25	(38)
A Comment on the Estimating Model	25	(1)
Japan	25	(9)
China	34	(9)
India	43	(7)
Korea	50	(5)
Indonesia	55	(2)
Sensitivity Tests	57	(1)
Decomposition of Investment	58	(5)
Linking the Separate Forecasts: Regional Indexing and Future Security Environments	63	(8)
Regional Indexing	64	(4)
Future Security Environments	68	(3)
``Chinese Preponderance''	68	(1)
Sustained Intraregional Balance	69	(2)
Epilogue: Some Additional Questions and Implications	71	(1)
Bellicosity or Amity in the Asian Region?	72	(2)
Prospects for Multilateral Security Cooperation	74	(1)
Burden Sharing	75	(2)
Effects on Attitudes Toward Forward-Based U.S. Forces	77	(4)
Appendix
A. Method and Model	81	(6)
B. Parameter Values: Historical Patterns and Study Assumptions	87