Assessing the Threat : The Chinese Military and Taiwan's Security

by Swaine, Michael D.; Yang, Andrew N. D.; Medeiros, Evan S.; Mastro, Oriana Skylar

• ISBN13: 9780870032387
• ISBN10: 0870032380
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2007-06-30
• Publisher: Renouf Pub Co Ltd

Summary

Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan --today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict.Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine, have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing the threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and crisis management practices for government and military leaders in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	p. vii
Acronyms	p. ix
Preface	p. xv
Introduction and Regional Context
Introduction	p. 3
China's Asia Policy: Strategy and Tactics	p. 25
People's Liberation Army (PLA) Doctrine and Capabilities
The PLA and Joint Operations: Moving from Theory Toward Practice	p. 55
Evolving Chinese Concepts of War Control and Escalation Management	p. 85
PLA Power Projection: Current Realities and Emerging Trends	p. 111
Threats, Deterrence, and Escalation Control in a Taiwan Contingency
Air Force Deterrence and Escalation Calculations for a Taiwan Strait Conflict: China, Taiwan, and the United States	p. 153
The Military Instrument of Statecraft at Sea: Naval Options in an Escalatory Scenario Involving Taiwan: 2007-2016	p. 185
The Nuclear Dimension: How Likely? How Stable?	p. 213
PRC Information Operations: Myths, Trends, and New Opportunities	p. 243
Taiwan's Defense Preparation Against the Chinese Military Threat	p. 265
The Implications of Chinese Military Modernization for U.S. Force Posture in a Taiwan Conflict	p. 285
Conclusions
Future East Asian Security Architecture: Implications for the PLA	p. 311
Assessing the Threat	p. 337
Bibliography	p. 367
Index	p. 387
Contributors	p. 409
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace	p. 415
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