Assessment of Two Cost-Effectiveness Studies on Cocaine Control Policy

by Manski, Charles F.; Pepper, John V.; Thomas, Yonette F.; National Research Council (U. S.) Committee on Data and Research for po

• ISBN13: 9780309064774
• ISBN10: 0309064775
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-05-01
• Publisher: Natl Academy Pr

Table of Contents

Preface	ix
Executive Summary	1	(2)
Introduction	3	(5)
Background	3	(1)
The RAND and IDA Studies	4	(2)
This Report	6	(1)
The Work Ahead	7	(1)
The Rand Study	8	(21)
Assumptions, Data, Methods, and Findings	8	(7)
Modeling the Market for Cocaine: Qualitative Features	8	(3)
Modeling the Market for Cocaine: Quantitative Features	11	(3)
Cost-Effectiveness Findings of the RAND Study	14	(1)
Assessment	15	(12)
Estimates of Effects of Drug Treatment Programs on Cocaine Users	15	(1)
The TOPS Data	16	(1)
Inferential Problems	16	(3)
Modeling the Supply of Cocaine	19	(1)
Shape of the Average Cost Curve	19	(3)
Supply-Control Policies and Average Production Costs	22	(1)
Seizures as a Measure of Supply-Control Activity	23	(1)
Nonprice Effects of Supply-Control Activities	24	(1)
Modeling the Demand for Cocaine	24	(1)
The Price Elasticity of Elasticity of Demand	24	(2)
The Complex Response of Cocaine Consumption to Prices	26	(1)
Evaluating the Reliability of the Model	27	(1)
Conclusions	27	(2)
The IDA Study	29	(16)
Assumptions, Data, Methods, and Findings	29	(5)
A Cocaine Price Series	29	(1)
The Price Elasticity of Demand for Cocaine	30	(1)
Effect of Interdiction Events on the Price of Cocaine	31	(1)
Cost-Effectiveness of Interdiction	31	(3)
Assessment	34	(8)
The IDA Price Series	35	(1)
The STRIDE Data	35	(1)
The Street-Price Index	36	(2)
Purity as a Measure of Product Quality	38	(1)
Sampling Error	38	(1)
Selection of Interdiction Events	39	(1)
Inferential Problems	39	(1)
Attribution of Price Fluctuations to Intervention Events	40	(1)
The Exponential Price Path	41	(1)
Duration of Price Excursions	42	(1)
Conclusions	42	(3)
Appendix: Cocaine Markets and Supply-Control Activities	45	(4)
References	49