Avoiding the Apocalypse

by Noland, Marcus

• ISBN13: 9780881322781
• ISBN10: 0881322784
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-08-01
• Publisher: Peterson Inst for Intl Economics

Author Biography

Marcus Noland, senior fellow, was the senior economist for international economics at the Council of Economic Advisers (1993-94)

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
Acknowledgments	xv
Introduction	1	(14)
Divergent Paths	3	(1)
Three Crises	4	(3)
Prospects for the Future	7	(4)
Tour de Horizon	11	(4)
The South Korean Economy until 1997	15	(44)
Economic Policy in the 1960s	16	(3)
Economic Policy in the 1970s	19	(3)
Economic Policy under President Chun	22	(2)
The Democracy Pledge and Twenty-five Years of Development	24	(5)
Pre-Crisis Economic Policy, 1987 to 1997	29	(28)
Conclusions	57	(2)
The North Korean Economy	59	(84)
Organization of the North Korean Economy	61	(12)
Statistical Comparison of the North and South Korean Economies	73	(9)
Crisis Response	82	(5)
International Economic Relations	87	(46)
Current Reforms	133	(7)
Conclusions	140	(3)
The Nuclear Confrontation	143	(28)
The Energy Situation	143	(2)
The Nuclear Program	145	(6)
The Agreed Framework	151	(7)
The Suspect Site and the Missile Test	158	(8)
Evaluation	166	(5)
The Slow-Motion Famine in the North	171	(24)
The Food Balance	180	(2)
Food for Peace	182	(9)
The People's Republic of Misery	191	(4)
The Financial Crisis in the South	195	(56)
Financial Frugality	199	(4)
The Bubble Story	203	(5)
The Crisis	208	(13)
Post-Crisis Developments	221	(26)
Recovery	247	(2)
Conclusions	249	(2)
The Prospect of Successful Reform in the North	251	(34)
Reform in the North	252	(14)
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Reform	266	(15)
The Likelihood of Reform	281	(4)
The Implications of North Korean Collapse	285	(38)
The German Experience	286	(9)
Relevance to Korea	295	(6)
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Collapse and Absorption	301	(6)
Conceptualizing the Costs and Benefits of Unification	307	(3)
Dynamic Results	310	(8)
Policy Lessons of the German Experience for South Korea	318	(2)
Thinking Beyond the German Case	320	(3)
Can the North Muddle Through?	323	(24)
Socialism in One Family	324	(9)
Muddling Through in Our Own Style	333	(9)
Sustainability	342	(5)
Conclusions	347	(30)
North Korea	348	(4)
South Korea	352	(15)
Other Actors	367	(8)
Final Thoughts	375	(2)
References	377	(24)
Appendix	401	(4)
Index	405