Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

by Edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber , Wolfgang Cramer , Nebojsa Nakicenovic , Tom Wigley , Gary Yohe , Foreword by Tony Blair , Introduction by Rajendra Pachauri

• ISBN13: 9780521864718
• ISBN10: 0521864712
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-03-06
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

The impacts of climate change are already being observed in a variety of sectors and there is greater clarity that these changes are being caused by human activities, mainly through release of greenhouse gases. In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The volume provides invaluable information for researchers in environmental science, climatology, and atmospheric chemistry, policy-makers in governments and environmental organizations, and scientists and engineers in industry.

Table of Contents

Foreword	vii
Rt Hon Tony Blair
Ministerial Address	ix
Rt Hon Margaret Beckett
Preface	xi
Acknowledgement	xiii
SECTION I Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds	1	(70)
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change	3	(4)
Rajendra Pachauri
An Overview of 'Dangerous' Climate Change	7	(18)
Stephen H. Schneider
Janica Lane
The Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea Level Rise	25	(4)
Chris Rapley
The Role of Sea-Level Rise and the Greenland Ice Sheet in Dangerous Climate Change: Implications for the Stabilisation of Climate	29	(8)
Jason A. Lowe
Jonathan M. Gregory
Jeff Ridley
Philippe Huybrechts
Robert J. Nicholls
Matthew Collins
Assessing the Risk of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation	37	(12)
Michael E. Schlesinger
Jianjun Yin
Gary Yohe
Natalia G. Andronova
Sergey Malyshev
Bin Li
Towards a Risk Assessment for Shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation	49	(6)
Richard Wood
Matthew Collins
Jonathan Gregory
Glen Harris
Michael Vellinga
Towards the Probability of Rapid Climate Change	55	(10)
Peter G. Challenor
Robin K.S. Hankin
Robert Marsh
Reviewing the Impact of Increased Atmospheric CO2 on Oceanic pH and the Marine Ecosystem	65	(6)
C. Turley
J.C. Blackford
S. Widdicombe
D. Lowe
P.D. Nightingale
A.P. Rees
SECTION II General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts	71	(62)
Critical Levels of Greenhouse Gases, Stabilization Scenarios, and Implications for the Global Decisions	73	(8)
Yu. A. Izrael
S.M. Semenov
Perspectives on 'Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference'; or How to Operationalize Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change	81	(12)
Farhana Yamin
Joel B. Smith
Ian Burton
Impacts of Global Climate Change at Different Annual Mean Global Temperature Increases	93	(40)
Rachel Warren
SECTION III Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity	133	(30)
Rapid Species' Responses to Changes in Climate Require Stringent Climate Protection Targets	135	(8)
Arnold van Vliet
Rik Leemans
Climate Change-induced Ecosystem Loss and its Implications for Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilisation	143	(4)
John Lanchbery
Tropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Conditions and Future Scenarios	147	(8)
Simon L. Lewis
Oliver L. Phillips
Timothy R. Baker
Yadvinder Malhi
Jon Lloyd
Conditions for Sink-to-Source Transitions and Runaway Feedbacks from the Land Carbon Cycle	155	(8)
Peter M. Cox
Chris Huntingford
Chris D. Jones
SECTION IV Socio-Economic Effects: Key Vulnerabilities for Water Resources, Agriculture, Food and Settlements	163	(88)
Human Dimensions Implications of Using Key Vulnerabilities for Characterizing 'Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference'	165	(2)
Anand Patwardhan
Upasna Sharma
Climate Change and Water Resources: A Global Perspective	167	(10)
Nigel W. Arnell
Relationship Between Increases in Global Mean Temperature and Impacts on Ecosystems, Food Production, Water and Socio-Economic Systems	177	(10)
Bill Hare
Assessing the Vulnerability of Crop Productivity to Climate Change Thresholds Using an Integrated Crop-Climate Model	187	(8)
A.J. Challinor
T.R. Wheeler
T.M. Osborne
J.M. Slingo
Climate Stabilisation and Impacts of Sea-Level Rise	195	(20)
Robert J. Nicholls
Jason A. Lowe
SECTION V Regional Perspectives: Polar Regions, Mid-Latitudes, Tropics and Sub-Tropics	203
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment	205
Susan Joy Hassol
Robert W. Corell
Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic	215	(4)
Tonje Folkestad
Mark New
Jed O. Kaplan
Josefino C. Comiso
Sheila Watt-Cloutier
Terry Fenge
Paul Crowley
Lynn D. Rosentrater
Approaches to Defining Dangerous Climate Change: An Australian Perspective	219	(8)
Will Steffen
Geoff Love
Penny Whetton
Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on California under Alternative Emission Scenarios -- Key Findings and Implications for Stabilisation	227	(8)
Katharine Hayhoe
Peter Frumhoff
Stephen Schneider
Amy Luers
Christopher Field
Impacts of Climate Change in the Tropics: The African Experience	235	(8)
Anthony Nyong
Isabelle Niang-Diop
Key Vulnerabilities and Critical Levels of Impacts in East and Southeast Asia	243	(8)
Hideo Harasawa
SECTION VI Emission Pathways	251	(82)
Probabilistic Assessment of 'Dangerous' Climate Change and Emissions Scenarios: Stakeholder Metrics and Overshoot Pathways	253	(12)
Michael D. Mastrandrea
Stephen H. Schneider
What Does a 2°C Target Mean for Greenhouse Gas Concentrations? A Brief Analysis Based on Multi-Gas Emission Pathways and Several Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty Estimates	265	(16)
Malte Meinshausen
Observational Constraints on Climate Sensitivity	281	(10)
Myles Allen
Natalia Andronova
Ben Booth
Suraje Dessai
David Frame
Chris Forest
Jonathan Gregory
Gabi Hegerl
Reto Knutti
Claudio Piani
David Sexton
David Stainforth
Of Dangerous Climate Change and Dangerous Emission Reduction	291	(8)
Richard S.J. Tol
Gary W. Yohe
Multi-Gas Emission Pathways for Meeting the EU 2°C Climate Target	299	(12)
Michel den Elzen
Malte Meinshausen
Why Delaying Emission Cuts is a Gamble	311	(6)
Steffen Kallbekken
Nathan Rive
Risks Associated with Stabilisation Scenarios and Uncertainty in Regional and Global Climate Change Impacts	317	(6)
David Stainforth
Myles Allen
David Frame
Claudio Piani
Impact of Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks on Emissions Scenarios to Achieve Stabilisation	323	(10)
Chris D. Jones
Peter M. Cox
Chris Huntingford
SECTION VII Technological Options	333	(52)
How, and at What Costs, can Low-Level Stabilization be Achieved? -- An Overview	337	(10)
Bert Metz
Detlef van Muuren
Stabilization Wedges: An Elaboration of the Concept	347	(8)
Robert Socolow
Costs and Technology Role for Different Levels of CO2 Concentration Stabilization	355	(6)
Keigo Akimoto
Toshimasa Tomoda
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change by Inducing Technological Progress: Scenarios Using a Large-Scale Econometric Model	361	(12)
Terry Barker
Haoran Pan
Jonathan Kohler
Rachel Warren
Sarah Winne
Carbon Cycle Management with Biotic Fixation and Long-term Sinks	373	(6)
Peter Read
Scope for Future CO2 Emission Reductions from Electricity Generation through the Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies	379	(6)
Jon Gibbins
Stuart Haszeldine
Sam Holloway
Jonathan Pearce
John Oakey
Simon Shackley
Carol Turley
The Technology of Two Degrees	385
Jae Edmonds
Steven J. Smith