Belief Functions in Business Decisions

by Srivastava, Rajendra P.; Mock, Theodore J.

• ISBN13: 9783790814514
• ISBN10: 3790814512
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-06-01
• Publisher: Physica Verlag

Summary

The book focuses on applications of belief functions to business decisions. Section I introduces the intuitive, conceptual and historical development of belief functions. Three different interpretations (the marginally correct approximation, the qualitative model, and the quantitative model) of belief functions are investigated, and rough set theory and structured query language (SQL) are used to express belief function semantics. Section II presents applications of belief functions in information systems and auditing. Included are discussions on how a belief-function framework provides a more efficient and effective audit methodology and also the appropriateness of belief functions to represent uncertainties in audit evidence. The third section deals with applications of belief functions to mergers and acquisitions; financial analysis of engineering enterprises; forecast demand for mobile satellite services; modeling financial portfolios; and economics.

Table of Contents

Preface	v
Part 1. Foundations
Introduction to Belief Functions	1	(16)
R. P. Srivastava
T. J. Mock
Decision Making in a Context where Uncertainty is Represented by Belief Functions	17	(45)
P. Smets
Empirical Models for the Dempster-Shafer Theory	62	(51)
M. A. Klopotek
S. T. Wierzchon
Part 2. Systems and Auditing Applications
The Descriptive Ability of Models of Audit Risk	113	(26)
G. Monroe
J. Ng
The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Belief Based Audit Procedures	139	(22)
M. K. P. Jung
H. E. Fink
Auditors' Evaluations of Uncertain Audit Evidence: Belief Functions versus Probabilities	161	(23)
K. Harrison
R. P. Srivastava
R. D. Plumlee
Conflict, Consistency and Consonance in Belief Functions: Coherence and Integrity of Belief Systems	184	(38)
P. Gillett
Part 3. Operations Management, Finance and Economics Applications
Evaluating Mergers and Acquisitions: A Belief Function Approach	222	(30)
R. P. Srivastava
D. Datta
Possibilistic Belief Network Constructed by Operators of Composition and Its Application to Financial Analysis	252	(29)
R. Jirousek
J. Vejnarova
J. Gemela
Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services	281	(35)
P. McBurney
S. Parsons
Modeling Financial Portfolios Using Belief Functions	316	(17)
C. Shenoy
P. Shenoy
Futures Hedging under Prospect Utility and Knightian Uncertainty	333
D. Lien