Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 1 The Global Jihadist Movement

by Rabasa, Angel; Chalk, Peter; Cragin, Kim; Daly, Sara A.; Gregg, HEather S.

• ISBN13: 9780833039309
• ISBN10: 083303930X
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-12-08
• Publisher: RAND CORPORATION

Summary

Five years after September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups continue to threaten the lives and well being of Americans and the security of our friends and allies. This book first examines how al-Qaeda has changed since September 11. It then turns to an analysis of the broader global jihadist movement-al-Qaeda and affiliated or associated terrorist groups or groups that may not be formally part of the al-Qaeda network but that have assimilated its worldview and concept of mass-casualty terrorist attacks. These groups, the authors believe, are where the center of gravity of the current global terrorist threat now lies. They conclude by setting out a four-pronged strategy against terrorist groups: Attack the ideological underpinnings of global jihadism; seek to sever the links-ideological and otherwise-between local and global jihadists; deny sanctuaries to terrorists; and strengthen the capabilities of front-line states to counter local terrorist threats. Book jacket.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. xi
Tables	p. xiii
Summary	p. xv
Acknowledgments	p. xxxv
Abbreviations	p. xxxvii
Introduction	p. 1
Roadmap to the Book	p. 2
Al-Qaeda's Ideology and Propaganda	p. 7
Ideology	p. 7
Themes	p. 12
Propaganda	p. 14
Strategy, Structure, and Operational Evolution	p. 23
Strategy	p. 23
Structure	p. 26
Al-Qaeda's Structure Before September 11	p. 27
Al-Qaeda's Structure After September 11	p. 29
Operational Evolution	p. 34
Hard Versus Soft Targets	p. 36
Mass-Casualty Versus Smaller, More Frequent Attacks	p. 38
Focus on Economic Impact	p. 39
Efficient Use of Loose Networks	p. 40
New Sanctuaries	p. 41
Unconventional Weapons	p. 44
Manpads Acquisition	p. 48
Recruitment of Western Converts	p. 51
Al-Qaeda's Finances	p. 57
Resource Structures and Networks	p. 57
Future Financial Prospects	p. 59
Al-Qaeda's Operational Planning Cycle	p. 63
Post-9/11 Planning Trends	p. 66
Iraq in al-Qaeda's Strategic Agenda	p. 68
The al-Qaeda Nebula	p. 73
South Asian Clusters	p. 81
Kashmir	p. 81
Laskar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad, and Harakat-ul-Mujahideen	p. 81
Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 90
Pakistan	p. 91
Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan and Laskar-e-Jhangvi	p. 91
Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 96
Bangladesh	p. 98
Harakat-ul-Jihad-Islami Bangladesh	p. 98
Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 103
The Caucasus and Central Asia	p. 105
Chechnya	p. 105
Chechen Jihadists (Basayev Faction)	p. 105
Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 111
Uzbekistan	p. 112
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan	p. 112
Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 116
The North and East African Clusters	p. 119
North Africa	p. 119
Morocco: The Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group and Salafiya Jihadia	p. 119
GICM and SJ: Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 123
Algeria: The Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat and the Dhamat Houmet Daawa Salafia	p. 125
DHDS: Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 126
Libya: Libyan Islamic Fighting Group	p. 127
LIFG: Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 128
Tunisia: Tunisian Combatant Group	p. 129
TCG: Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 130
East Africa	p. 131
Somalia: Al-Itihaad al-Islami (AIAI) and the "New" Somali Jihadi Network	p. 131
The Somali Jihadist Network: Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 133
The Al-Zarqawi Network: Jordanian and Iraqi Jihadis	p. 135
Jordan	p. 135
Jordanian Network: Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 137
Iraq	p. 138
Ansar al-Islam, al-Tawhid wa'l-Jihad-Tanzim Qai'dat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn, and the Mujahideen Shura Council	p. 138
Jihadist Groups in Iraq: Assessment and Outlook	p. 143
The Southeast Asian Cluster	p. 147
Jemaah Islamiyah and Its Offshoots	p. 147
JI and Local Islamist Groups in Southeast Asia	p. 154
JI: Assessment and Future Outlook	p. 156
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 159
New Approaches to Combating the Global Jihadist Movement	p. 159
Countering al-Qaeda Through Political Warfare	p. 159
Attack the Ideology	p. 160
Break the Links Between the Global and Local Jihads	p. 161
Deny Sanctuaries	p. 163
Strengthen the Capabilities of Frontline States to Confront Local Jihadist Threats	p. 164
Implications for the U.S. Air Force	p. 166
Bibliography	p. 173
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