Beyond the Nuclear Shadow a Phased Approached for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S.-Russian Realtions

by Mosher, David E.; Schwartz, Lowell H.; Howell, David R.; Davis, Lynn E.

• ISBN13: 9780833033468
• ISBN10: 0833033468
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-04-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Develops concrete steps as part of a phased approach by which the United States and Russia can improve nuclear safety and U.S.-Russian realtions.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xxiii
Abbreviations	xxv
Chapter One BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION FOR IMPROVING NUCLEAR SAFETY	1	(12)
Concerns About the Current Situation	2	(4)
Opportunities for Improving Nuclear Safety in an Era of Improving Relations	6	(3)
Study Approach	9	(4)
Chapter Two POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR ACCIDENTAL OR UNAUTHORIZED NUCLEAR USE	13	(22)
Possible Scenarios	13	(6)
Factors Contributing to Possible Nuclear Use	19	(14)
Conclusions	33	(2)
Chapter Three CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING NUCLEAR SAFETY OPTIONS	35	(4)
Chapter Four OPTIONS FOR IMPROVING NUCLEAR SAFETY	39	(94)
Finding Solutions to the Potential Causes of Nuclear Use	39	(5)
Option 1: Provide Assistance for Improving Russia's Early-Warning Radars or Satellites	44	(9)
Option 2: Establish a Joint, Redundant Early-Warning System by Placing Sensors Outside U.S. and Russian Missile Silos	53	(9)
Option 3: Immediately Stand Down All Nuclear Forces to Be Eliminated	62	(5)
Option 4: Pull U.S. Strategic Ballistic Missile Submarines Away from Russia	67	(10)
Option 5: Keep U.S. Attack Submarines Away from Russia	77	(5)
Option 6: Remove W-88 Warheads from Trident Missiles	82	(5)
Option 7: Reduce Day-to-Day Launch Readiness of 150 ICBMs in Silos	87	(12)
Option 8: Reduce Day-to-Day Launch Readiness of All Nuclear Forces	99	(16)
Option 9: Install Destruct-After-Launch (DAL) Mechanisms on Ballistic Missiles	115	(9)
Option 10: Deploy Limited U.S. Missile Defenses	124	(9)
Chapter Five RECOMMENDATION: A PHASED APPROACH FOR IMPROVING NUCLEAR SAFETYAND U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS	133	(10)
Immediate Steps	135	(2)
Near-Term Steps	137	(1)
Medium-Term Steps	138	(1)
Possible Intermediate- to Long-Term Steps	139	(1)
Possible End States	140	(1)
Conclusion	141	(2)
Appendix: Illustrative Presidential Directive for Improving Nuclear Safety	143	(6)
Bibliography	149