Business Modelling and Simulation

by Oakshott, Les

• ISBN13: 9780273612513
• ISBN10: 0273612514
• Edition: Disk
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1997-03-01
• Publisher: Ft Pr

Summary

This books provides students with a solid grounding in modelling and simulation techniques without requiring them to be experts in mathematics or computer programming. The material is presented in such a way as to present all the basic principles and to enable students to apply the theory of simulation to real life problems. The text places greater emphasis on the importance of statistical techniques and includes a chapter on statistics for students who have little or no knowledge of this area. A disk containing data files used in the text can be found at the back of the book.

Table of Contents

Preface	ix
How to use this book	xi
Acknowledgements	xiii
Introduction and overview	1	(7)
Les Oakshott
The role of modelling in the decision-making process	1	(1)
The need for a text on modelling and simulation	2	(6)
References and further reading	7	(1)
Models and modelling	8	(11)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	8	(1)
What is a model?	8	(2)
Model validation -- the modelling cycle	10	(3)
Types of models	13	(6)
Summary	17	(1)
Exercises	17	(1)
Further reading	18	(1)
Statistical aspects of modelling	19	(59)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	19	(1)
Descriptive statistics	19	(12)
Probability	31	(3)
Probability distributions	34	(21)
Inferential statistics	55	(23)
Summary	75	(1)
Exercises	75	(2)
References and further reading	77	(1)
Analytical models	78	(43)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	78	(1)
Deterministic models	78	(19)
Stochastic models	97	(24)
Summary	117	(1)
Exercises	118	(2)
Further reading	120	(1)
Simulation modelling	121	(26)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	121	(1)
Types of simulation	121	(9)
Stages of a simulation project	130	(6)
Advantages and disadvantages of a simulation	136	(1)
Pitfalls in simulation modelling	137	(1)
The management of simulation projects	138	(1)
1998 supply business simulation at SWEB	139	(8)
Summary	143	(1)
Exercises	144	(2)
References and further reading	146	(1)
Applications of simulation	147	(12)
Les Oakshott
Andrew Greasley
David J. Smith
Introduction	147	(1)
Types of applications	147	(4)
The monorail system	151	(8)
Summary	158	(1)
References and further reading	158	(1)
Sampling from probability distributions	159	(21)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	159	(1)
Random numbers	159	(8)
Generation of random variates	167	(13)
Summary	177	(1)
Exercises	177	(2)
References and further reading	179	(1)
Spreadsheet simulation	180	(28)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	180	(1)
General principles	180	(1)
Spreadsheet modelling	181	(27)
Summary	205	(1)
Exercises	205	(2)
Further reading	207	(1)
Construction of simulation models	208	(14)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	208	(1)
Terminology	208	(3)
World views	211	(5)
Activity cycle diagrams	216	(6)
Summary	220	(1)
Exercises	221	(1)
Further reading	221	(1)
Data Collection and analysis	222	(26)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	222	(1)
General considerations	222	(1)
Practical problems with data collection	223	(3)
Interpreting stochastic data	226	(6)
Choice of sampling distributions	232	(11)
Collecting data for validation purposes	243	(5)
Summary	246	(1)
Exercises	246	(1)
References and further reading	247	(1)
Validation of simulation models	248	(23)
Les Oakshott
Andrew Greasley
David J Smith
Introduction	248	(1)
Types of system	248	(5)
Validation methods	253	(9)
Ashburton Products	262	(9)
Summary	269	(1)
Exercises	269	(1)
References and further reading	270	(1)
Interpretation of simulation experiments	271	(42)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	271	(1)
General considerations	271	(1)
Absolute measures for a single model	272	(3)
Comparisons of multiple alternatives of a model	275	(26)
The growing need for renal services	301	(12)
Summary	309	(1)
Exercises	310	(2)
References and further reading	312	(1)
A review of simulation software	313	(20)
Les Oakshott
Introduction	313	(1)
Historical perspective	313	(2)
Simulation tools	315	(11)
Features required from a simulation tool	326	(3)
Selection of simulation software	329	(1)
The future	330	(3)
Summary	331	(1)
References and further reading	331	(2)
Appendix 1 Scenario and case study information	333	(11)
Appendix 2 Statistical tables	344	(6)
Appendix 3 Answers to selected exercises	350	(9)
Appendix 4 Files available on the disk that accompanies this text	359	(2)
Index	361