Central Asian Security The New International Context

by Allison, Roy; Jonson, Lena

• ISBN13: 9780815701057
• ISBN10: 0815701055
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-04-01
• Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Summary

This volume is the first comprehensive scholarly analysis of the strategic reconfiguration of Central Asia as Russia has become more disengaged from the nations in the region and as these nations have developed new relations to the south, east, and west. The international implications are enormous because of the rich energy sources --oil and natural gas --located in the Caspian Sea area.The authors assess a variety of internal security policy challenges confronting these states --for example, the potential for conflict arising from such factors as a mixed ethnic population, resource scarcity, particularly in relation to water management, and an Islamic revival. They also examine the security policy content of relations between the Central Asian states and regional and international powers --specifically the stakes, interests, and policies of Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the United States.These internal challenges and the evolution of relations with external powers may result in new cooperative relationships, but they may also lead to destabilizing rivalry and interstate enmity in Central Asia. It is important to identify new patterns of relevance for future security cooperation in the region, but the potential for a new security system or for new institutions to manage security in the region remains uncertain. These issues are explored by a team of prominent specialists from Western Europe, the United States, Russia and China.

Author Biography

Roy Allison is head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs Lena Jonson is a senior research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	ix
Acronyms	xi
About the authors	xiii
Central Asian security: internal and external dynamics	1	(23)
Lena Jonson
Roy Allison
Introduction: the new international context	1	(4)
Central Asia as a regional security complex	5	(5)
Regional security dynamics	10	(2)
Internal and external factors of Central Asian security	12	(6)
Evolving security arrangements in Central Asia	18	(6)
Central Asia: common legacies and conflicts	24	(25)
Martha Brill Olcott
Introduction	24	(2)
A history which both binds and divides	26	(4)
Pursuing conflicting national strategies	30	(7)
Hard times, growing rivalries and increasing security risks	37	(6)
Will cooperation work? Prospects for the future	43	(6)
Islam in Central Asia	49	(20)
Alexei Malashenko
Islam in Central Asian society	49	(4)
Radical Islam and the Central Asian states	53	(4)
The `Islamic factor' and the role of Russia	57	(4)
Central Asia and the wider Muslim world	61	(4)
Prospects for the future	65	(4)
Water in Central Asia: regional cooperation or conflict?	69	(26)
Stuart Horsman
Introduction	69	(1)
Water insecurity in Central Asia	70	(2)
Regional initiatives in the water crisis	72	(5)
The role and impact of external actors on the water management crisis	77	(7)
Prospects for the future	84	(11)
Russia and Central Asia	95	(32)
Lena Jonson
Introduction	95	(1)
The vision	96	(5)
Economic and energy relations	101	(3)
Military and security relations	104	(6)
Russia and regional dynamics	110	(4)
Russia and the strategic scene in Central Asia	114	(5)
Prospects for the future	119	(8)
The United States and Central Asia	127	(25)
Stephen Blank
Introduction	127	(1)
The US vision of Central Asia	128	(7)
Energy relations	135	(3)
Military-security cooperation and conflict resolution	138	(2)
The USA and the strategic scene in Central Asia	140	(5)
Prospects for the future	145	(7)
China and Central Asia	152	(19)
Guangcheng Xing
The vision of Chinese-Central Asian relations	152	(2)
The normalization of relations	154	(1)
Economic and energy relations	155	(4)
Military and security cooperation	159	(2)
Islamism and separatism in Central Asia and Xinjiang	161	(4)
China and the strategic scene in Central Asia	165	(3)
Prospects for the future	168	(3)
Iran and Central Asia	171	(28)
Edmund Herzig
Introduction	171	(3)
The normalization of relations between Iran and Central Asia	174	(4)
Economic and energy cooperation	178	(6)
Security relations and Iranian responses to conflicts in Central Asia and Afghanistan	184	(7)
Prospects for the future: Iran and the strategic scene in Central Asia	191	(8)
Turkey and Central Asia	199	(20)
Gareth M. Winrow
Introduction	199	(2)
The visions of a Turkic Commonwealth	201	(2)
Economic and energy relations	203	(4)
Military and security cooperation	207	(3)
Regional dynamics	210	(3)
Turkey and the strategic scene in Central Asia	213	(3)
Prospects for the future	216	(3)
Structures and frameworks for security policy cooperation in Central Asia	219	(28)
Roy Allison
Introduction	219	(1)
Security structures sponsored by the Central Asian states	220	(6)
Security structures sponsored by regional/external powers	226	(11)
The role of the United Nations and the OSCE in promoting security in Central Asia	237	(3)
Prospects for the future	240	(7)
Conclusion: Central Asian security in the regional and international context	247	(22)
Roy Allison
Introduction	247	(1)
The stakes, interests and policies of regional powers	248	(5)
The potential for conflict and cooperation within Central Asia	253	(7)
External powers, security assistance and shifting alignments in Central Asia	260	(3)
The Central Asian security complex reconsidered	263	(1)
Central Asian security: future trajectories	264	(5)
Index	269