The Challenge of Anticipation

by Pezzulo, Giovanni; Butz, Martin V.; Castelfranchi, Cristiano; Falcone, Rino

• ISBN13: 9783540877011
• ISBN10: 3540877010
• Edition: Illus.
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-09-16
• Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York Inc

Summary

This book proposes a unifying approach for the analysis and design of artificial cognitive systems: The Anticipatory Approach. In 11 coherent chapters, the authors of this State-of-the-Art Survey propose a foundational view of the importance of dealing with the future, of gaining some autonomy from current environmental data, and of endogenously generating sensorimotor and abstract representations. A meaningful taxonomy for anticipatory cognitive mechanisms is put forward, which distinguishes between the types of predictions and the different influences of these predictions on actual behavior and learning. In short, a new unifying perspective on cognitive systems is given.

Table of Contents

Theory
Introduction: Anticipation in Natural and Artificial Cognition	p. 3
Introduction	p. 3
The Path to Anticipatory Cognitive Systems	p. 4
Symbolic Behavior, Representation-Less Behavior, and Their Merge to Anticipatory Behavior	p. 5
The Power of Anticipation: From Reactivity to Proactivity	p. 6
The Anticipatory Approach to Cognitive Systems	p. 6
The Unitary Nature of Anticipation	p. 12
Anticipation in Living Organisms	p. 12
Anticipatory Natural Cognition	p. 12
Anticipatory Codes in the Brain	p. 15
Simulative Theories of Cognition, and Their Unifying Nature	p. 18
Conclusions	p. 22
The Anticipatory Approach: Definitions and Taxonomies	p. 23
Anticipatory Systems, Anticipation, and Anticipatory Behavior	p. 23
Prediction vs. Anticipation	p. 25
Predictive Capabilities	p. 25
Anticipatory Capabilities	p. 31
Anticipation and Goal-Oriented Behavior	p. 34
The Anticipatory Structure of Goal-Oriented Behavior	p. 35
Not All Anticipatory Behavior Is Goal-Oriented	p. 36
Which Anticipations Permit Goal-Oriented Action?	p. 36
The Hierarchical Organization of Anticipatory Goal-Oriented Action	p. 37
Additional Elements of True Goal-Oriented Behavior	p. 38
Anticipation and Learning	p. 39
Learning to Predict	p. 39
Bootstrapping Autonomous Cognitive Development: Surprise and Curiosity	p. 40
From Willed to Automatic Control of Action and Vice Versa on the Basis of Surprise	p. 41
Conclusions	p. 43
Benefits of Anticipations in Cognitive Agents	p. 45
Potentials for Anticipatory Systems	p. 45
Potential Benefits of Anticipatory Mechanisms on Cognitive Functions	p. 48
Effective, Context-Based Action Initiation	p. 48
Faster and Smoother Behavior Execution	p. 49
Improving Top-Down Attention	p. 50
Improving Information Seeking	p. 51
Improving Decision Making	p. 52
Object Grounding, Categorization, and Ontologies	p. 54
Social Abilities	p. 55
Learning	p. 57
Arising Challenges Due to Anticipations and Avoiding Them	p. 60
Conclusion	p. 61
Models, Architectures, and Applications
Anticipation in Attention	p. 65
Introduction	p. 65
Learning What to Look at	p. 66
A Learning Saliency Map	p. 67
Cue-Target Learning	p. 70
Cueing by a Single Stimulus	p. 70
Contextual Cueing	p. 72
Fovea Based Solution	p. 72
Attending to Moving Targets	p. 73
Models of Smooth Pursuit	p. 75
Engineering Approaches	p. 76
The State Based Approach	p. 78
The Prediction Approach	p. 79
The Fovea Based Approach	p. 80
Combining Bottom-Up and Top-Down Processes	p. 81
Anticipatory, Goal-Directed Behavior	p. 85
A Brief History of Schemas	p. 87
Schema Approaches	p. 88
Symbolic Schemas for Policy Learning	p. 89
Symbolic Schemas and Prediction for Selection	p. 90
Neural-Based Planning	p. 91
Neural Network-Based Dynamic Programming	p. 92
Inverse Model Approaches	p. 92
Inverse Models in Motor Learning and Control	p. 93
Inverse Models and Schema Approaches	p. 94
Advanced Structures	p. 94
Prediction and Action	p. 95
Coupled Forward-Inverse Models	p. 97
Hierarchical Anticipatory Systems	p. 98
Evaluation of Predictive and Anticipatory Capabilities	p. 99
Schema-Based Systems	p. 101
Inverse Model Approaches	p. 106
Discussion	p. 108
Contrasting Predictive System Capabilities	p. 108
Contrasting Anticipatory System Capabilities	p. 110
Integration	p. 112
Conclusions	p. 113
Anticipation and Believability	p. 115
Introduction	p. 115
Animation and Believability	p. 115
Emotion and Exaggeration	p. 116
Anticipation	p. 117
Anticipation, Emotion, and Believability	p. 117
Related Work	p. 119
Oz Project	p. 119
EMA	p. 119
Duncan the Highland Terrier	p. 120
Emotivector	p. 121
Architecture	p. 121
Anticipation Model	p. 122
Salience Model	p. 123
Sensation Model	p. 123
Selection Model	p. 123
Uncertainty	p. 124
Aini, the Synthetic Flower	p. 125
Emotivectors in Action	p. 125
Evaluation	p. 128
iCat, the Affective Game Buddy	p. 128
Emotivectors in Action	p. 129
Evaluation	p. 130
Emotivector Integration in Agent Architectures	p. 132
Conclusions	p. 132
Anticipation and Emotions for Goal Directed Agents	p. 135
Introduction	p. 135
Related Works in Affective Computing	p. 137
Expectations and Surprise	p. 139
A Typology of Expectations and Predictions	p. 139
From the Typology of Expectations to the Typology of Surprise	p. 142
Roles of Surprise in Cognitive Processing	p. 144
Expectations and Emotions for Goal-Directed Agents	p. 148
Expectations and Decision Making	p. 148
Situated Agents and Affective States	p. 153
Confidence of Predictions and Modulation of the Probability Function	p. 158
Discussion	p. 158
Conclusion	p. 159
A Reinforcement-Learning Model of Top-Down Attention Based on a Potential-Action Map	p. 161
Introduction	p. 161
Methods	p. 163
RGB Camera Input	p. 164
Saliency Map and Action Selection	p. 165
Fovea	p. 166
Periphery Map	p. 166
Inhibition-of-Return Map	p. 167
Potential Action Map	p. 167
Actor-Critic Model	p. 168
Parameter Settings	p. 169
The Tasks	p. 169
Results	p. 172
Learning and Performance of the Models	p. 172
Bottom-Up Attention: Periphery Map and Inhibition-of-Return Map	p. 173
Analysis of the Vote Maps	p. 175
Capability of Learning to Stay, and of Staying, on the Target	p. 176
Potential Action Map: An Action-Oriented Memory of Cue Information	p. 177
Potential Action Map: Capacity to Integrate Multiple Sources of Information	p. 179
Conclusions	p. 182
Anticipation by Analogy	p. 185
Introduction	p. 185
The Anticipation by Analogy Scenario	p. 186
Models of Analogy-Making	p. 188
AMBR Model of Analogy-Making	p. 191
Integrating Visual Perception and Motor Control in AMBR	p. 191
Top-Down Perception	p. 195
Attention	p. 197
Transfer of the Solution	p. 198
Action Execution	p. 199
Running the Simulated Model and Comparing It with Human Data	p. 200
Comparing with Human Data	p. 203
Running the Real Robot Model in the Real World	p. 204
Ikaros	p. 206
AMBR2Robot	p. 208
Tests	p. 209
Mechanisms for Active Vision	p. 211
Discussion and Conclusion	p. 213
Anticipation in Coordination	p. 215
Introduction	p. 215
The Prisoner's Dilemma Game	p. 216
Related Research	p. 217
Fictitious Play	p. 218
Strategic Teaching and Reputation Formation	p. 218
Social Order and Coordination	p. 220
Anticipation and Information Processing in Societies	p. 220
Agent Architecture and Decision Making Model	p. 221
The Model	p. 221
Judgment and Decision Making	p. 223
Game Simulations with Individual Agents: Comparison with Experimental Results	p. 224
Comparison of the Model with Experimental Results	p. 224
Multi-Agent Simulations	p. 227
Agent Societies	p. 228
Simulation Results and Discussions	p. 229
Conclusion	p. 235
Endowing Artificial Systems with Anticipatory Capabilities: Success Cases	p. 237
Introduction	p. 237
Flexible Goal-Directed Arm Control: The SURE_REACH Architecture	p. 238
Learning Cognitive Maps for Anticipatory Control: Time Growing Neural Gas	p. 239
Learning Effective Directional Arm Control: The Evolutionary System XCSF	p. 240
Anticipatory Target Motion Prediction	p. 241
Anticipatory Spatial Attention with Saliency Maps	p. 242
Behavior Prediction in a Group of Robots	p. 242
Enhanced Adaptivity in a Predator-Prey Scenario	p. 243
Adaptive Navigation and Control with Anticipation	p. 245
Mental Experiments for Selecting Actions	p. 245
Anticipations for Believable Behavior	p. 246
Anticipatory Behavior in a Searching-for-an-Object Task	p. 247
The Role of Anticipation in Cooperation and Coordination	p. 248
Anticipatory Effects of Expectations and Emotions	p. 249
On-Line and Off-Line Anticipation for Action Control	p. 252
Conclusion	p. 254
References	p. 255
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