Challenges of a Changing Earth

by Steffen, W. L.; Jager, Jill; Carson, D. J.; Bradshaw, C.

• ISBN13: 9783540433088
• ISBN10: 3540433082
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-12-01
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

This book presents a state-of-the-science overview of global change and its consequences for human societies. It highlights four areas of critical importance - food, water resources, air quality and the carbon cycle - from both science and policy perspectives, and points the way towards the new scientific approaches needed to study the Earth System in the future. The book also summarises recent advances in understanding in global change science: the climate system, global biogeochemistry, land-ocean interactions and changing land cover and the Earth System.

Table of Contents

Part I Opening	1	(18)
Opening Address	3	(4)
Challenges of a Changing Earth	7	(12)
References	17	(2)
Part II Achievements and Challenges	19	(1)
Part IIa Food, Land, Water, and Oceans	20	(24)
Toward Integrated Land-Change Science: Advances in 1.5 Decades of Sustained International Research on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change	21	(6)
Trends	21	(2)
Causes	23	(1)
Model-Methods	24	(1)
Summary and Observations	25	(2)
References	25	(2)
Climate Variability and Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics: Implications for Sustainability	27	(4)
Introduction	27	(1)
Climate Effects on Marine Ecosystems	28	(1)
Implications for Sustainability	29	(2)
References	29	(2)
Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities	31	(8)
Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities	31	(1)
The Critical Role of Knowledge	31	(1)
Environment and Sustainable Development	32	(1)
Global Environmental Change	32	(1)
Global Agro-Ecological Assessment	33	(1)
Global AEZ Findings	34	(1)
Global Warming and Climate Change	34	(1)
Impact of Climate Change on Worldwide Cereal Production	35	(2)
Food Security and Climate Change	37	(1)
Climate Change Impact: Fairness and Equity?	38	(1)
Concluding Remark	38	(1)
References	38	(1)
Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources Development: Winners and Losers	39	(5)
Introduction	39	(1)
Why is Equity Relevant in River Basin Development Contexts? An Illustration from the Senegal River	39	(1)
Role of Dams in Water Resources Allocation	40	(1)
Addressing Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources Development	41	(1)
The Concept of Equity	41	(1)
Ideas for Improving the Equity Performance of Dam Projects	41	(1)
Conclusions	42	(2)
References	43	(1)
Part IIb Out of Breath: Air Quality in the 21st Century	44	(12)
Atmospheric Chemistry in the ``Anthropocene''	45	(4)
Fires, Haze and Acid Rain: The Social and Political Framework of Air Pollution in ASEAN and Asia	49	(7)
Introduction: Air Pollution and Asia in Context	49	(1)
Part 1: The Problem in Perspective	49	(2)
The Haze: Summary of a Recurring Disaster	49	(1)
Northeast Asian Acid Rain: The Smog of Growth	50	(1)
Part 2: International Principles and Practice	51	(1)
International Law and Practice in Other Regions	51	(1)
The ASEAN Way and Environmental Cooperation	51	(1)
Cooperation in Northeast Asia	52	(1)
Part 3: Assessing and Improving Regional Cooperation on the Environment	52	(2)
Assessment and Prospects for Improvement	52	(1)
How to Improve ASEAN?	53	(1)
Northeast Asian Cooperation	53	(1)
Conclusion: Strengthening the Social and Political Frameworks	54	(2)
General References	55	(1)
Specific References	55	(1)
Part IIc Managing Planetary Metabolism? The Global Carbon Cycle	56	(16)
Carbon and the Science-Policy Nexus: The Kyoto Challenge	57	(8)
The Global Carbon Cycle	58	(1)
Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle	58	(1)
The Terrestrial Sink	59	(1)
Location of the Terrestrial Sink	59	(1)
Variability of the Terrestrial Sink	60	(1)
Origin of the Terrestrial Sink	60	(1)
The Future of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle	60	(5)
References	64	(1)
Industry Response to the CO2 Challenge	65	(7)
Introduction	65	(1)
The Energy Context	65	(1)
The Industry Response	66	(3)
Reducing GHG Emissions	66	(1)
Future Innovations	67	(1)
Renewable Energy	68	(1)
Transport Fuels	69	(1)
Relations between Business and the Scientific Community	69	(2)
Summary of the Key Points	71	(1)
Part IId Summary: Global Change and the Challenge for the Future	72	(3)
Global Change and the Challenge for the Future	73	(2)
Part III Advances in Understanding	75	(1)
Part IIIa Global Biogeochemistry: Understanding the Metabolic System of the Planet	76	(16)
Ocean Biogeochemistry: A Sea of Change	77	(4)
Introduction	77	(1)
The Oceanic Carbon Cycle	77	(1)
Ocean Time-Series Programmes	78	(2)
Summary	80	(1)
References	80	(1)
The Past, Present and Future of Carbon on Land	81	(6)
What Controls the Behaviour of Biospheric Carbon?	81	(1)
The Carbon Cycle is Constrained by Other Elemental Cycles	82	(1)
The Nitrogen-Carbon Link	82	(1)
Do Land Ecosystems Retain Nitrogen Deposited From the Air?	83	(1)
The Phosphorus-Nitrogen Link	83	(1)
The Carbon Cycle During the Past 420 Thousand Years	83	(4)
References	85	(2)
Can New Institutions Solve Atmospheric Problems? Confronting Acid Rain, Ozone Depletion and Climate Change	87	(5)
Does the Regime Have Appropriate Behavioural Mechanisms?	88	(1)
Has the Regime Given Rise to a Robust Social Practice?	89	(1)
Does the Regime Have a Sensitive Steering System?	90	(1)
Implications for the Climate Regime	91	(1)
References	91	(1)
Part IIIb Land-Ocean Interactions: Regional-Global Linkages	92	(14)
Emissions from the Oceans to the Atmosphere, Deposition from the Atmosphere to the Oceans and the Interactions Between Them	93	(4)
Atmospheric Inputs to the Oceans	93	(1)
Nitrogen	93	(1)
Iron	94	(1)
Emissions from the Ocean to the Atmosphere	94	(1)
Interacting Cycles -- the Challenge for the Future	95	(2)
References	96	(1)
Bibliography	96	(1)
The Impact of Dams on Fisheries: Case of the Three Gorges Dam	97	(4)
The Effect of Dams on Deltas and Estuaries	97	(1)
The Case of the Three Gorges Dam	98	(1)
Threat to Other Shelves	98	(3)
References	99	(2)
Global Change in the Coastal Zone: The Case of Southeast Asia	101	(5)
Where is the Coastal Zone and Why Southeast Asia?	101	(1)
Pressures on the Coastal Zone: Population and a Resource-Dependent Economy	101	(5)
References	104	(2)
Part IIIc The Climate System: Prediction, Change and Variability	106	(16)
Climate Change Fore and Aft: Where on Earth Are We Going?	107	(2)
Climate Change -- Past, Present and Future: A Personal Perspective	109	(4)
Lessons from the Past	110	(1)
Global Temperature Change	110	(1)
The Future in Perspective of the Past	111	(2)
References	112	(1)
The Changing Cryosphere: Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes	113	(4)
What Is the Cryosphere and How Does It Contribute to Global Climate Change?	113	(1)
What Is the Empirical Evidence of Climate Change in the High Latitudes?	113	(1)
Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes	114	(3)
The Coupled Climate System: Variability and Predictability	117	(5)
Introduction	117	(1)
Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability	117	(1)
Decadal Climate Variability	118	(2)
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change	120	(2)
Part IIId Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System: A Regional or Global Concern	122	(21)
Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System: A Regional or Global Concern?	123	(2)
References	124	(1)
Africa: Greening of the Sahara	125	(4)
Africa: A Hot Spot of Nonlinear Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction	125	(1)
The African Wet Period	126	(1)
Abrupt Changes in North Africa	126	(1)
Will North Africa Become Green Again in the Near Future?	127	(1)
Outlook	128	(1)
Acknowledgements	128	(1)
References	128	(1)
The Role of Large-Scale Vegetation and Land Use in the Water Cycle and Climate in Monsoon Asia	129	(4)
The Asian Monsoon As a Huge Water Cycling System	129	(1)
Atmospheric Water Cycle over Monsoon Asia and the Eurasian Continent	129	(1)
Is Monsoon Rainfall Decreasing? The Impact of Deforestation on the Water Cycle in Thailand	129	(1)
Do Water-Fed Rice Paddy Fields Increase Rainfall in Monsoon Asia?	130	(1)
A Hydro-Climate Memory Effect of the Taiga-Permafrost System in Siberia	131	(2)
References	132	(1)
Can Human-Induced Land-Cover Change Modify the Monsoon System?	133	(4)
History of Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes over East Asia	133	(1)
Design of the Numerical Experiments	133	(2)
Changes of Surface Dynamic Parameters under Two Types of Vegetation Cover	135	(1)
Changes of East Asian Monsoon by Human-Induced Land-Cover Changes	135	(1)
Conclusions	136	(1)
References	136	(1)
The Amazon Basin and Land-Cover Change: A Future in the Balance?	137	(6)
Land-Use Change	137	(1)
Impacts on the Carbon Cycle	138	(1)
Impacts on the Atmosphere	139	(1)
Impacts on Water Chemistry	140	(1)
The Future	140	(3)
Acknowledgements	140	(1)
References	140	(3)
Part IV Looking to the Future	143	(1)
Part IVa Simulating and Observing the Earth System	144	(16)
Virtual Realities of the Past, Present and Future	145	(6)
What Are General Circulation Models (GCMs)?	145	(1)
How Do We Use Climate Models?	145	(1)
How Well Do Models Simulate Present Climate?	146	(1)
How Well Do Models Predict Past Climate Change?	146	(1)
What Are the Predictions for the Future?	147	(1)
What Developments Are Likely in the Future?	148	(1)
How Can We Deal with Uncertainty in Predictions?	148	(1)
Concluding Remarks	149	(2)
References	149	(2)
Coping with Earth System Complexity and Irregularity	151	(6)
The Challenge	151	(1)
Great Cognitive Barriers	151	(1)
Breaches and Bypasses to Understanding	152	(4)
Adaptive Planetary Stewardship	156	(1)
References	156	(1)
Simulating and Observing the Earth System: Summary	157	(3)
Earth System	157	(1)
Simulators	158	(1)
Observations	158	(1)
The Way Forward	158	(2)
Part IVb Does the Earth System Need Biodiversity?	160	(14)
Marine Biodiversity: Why We Need It in Earth System Science	161	(4)
Reference	163	(2)
Does Biodiversity Matter to Terrestrial Ecosystem Processes and Services?	165	(4)
Is Biodiversity Important to the Functioning of the Earth System?	165	(1)
What is Biodiversity?	165	(1)
The Most Abundant Plants Are Important for Ecosystem Functioning	165	(1)
The Number of Functionally Similar Species Is Important in Facing Environmental Change	166	(1)
Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Management	166	(3)
Biodiversity Loss and the Maintenance of Our Life-Support System	169	(5)
How Does Biodiversity Affect Ecosystem Functioning at Small Scales?	169	(2)
Scaling Up in Time: Biodiversity As Insurance Against Environmental Changes	171	(1)
Scaling Up in Space: Biodiversity Effects at Landscape and Regional Scales	172	(1)
Conclusions	172	(2)
References	172	(2)
Part IVc Can Technology Spare the Planet?	174	(18)
Maglevs and the Vision of St. Hubert - Or the Great Restoration of Nature: Why and How	175	(8)
Introduction	175	(1)
The Vision of St. Hubert	175	(1)
Our Triune Brain	175	(2)
Sparing Sea Life	177	(1)
Sparing Farmland	177	(2)
Sparing Forests	179	(1)
Sparing Pavement	180	(1)
Cardinal Resolutions	181	(2)
References	182	(1)
Industrial Transformation: Exploring System Change in Production and Consumption	183	(6)
Human Choice on Issues Involving a Time Scale of Decades to Centuries	183	(1)
Transformation: Why, How Does It Work and What Are the Options	184	(1)
From Green Products to System Transformation	185	(1)
Five Major Foci for Transformation Research	186	(1)
International Cooperation	186	(1)
In Summary	187	(2)
References	188	(1)
Will Technology Spare the Planet?	189	(3)
References	191	(1)
Part IVd Towards Global Sustainability	192	(10)
Challenges and Road Blocks for Local and Global Sustainability	193	(4)
Advances	193	(1)
International Instruments: Urgency of Goals and Synergies	193	(1)
The Biodiversity Convention	193	(1)
The Climate Change Convention	194	(1)
Synergies	195	(1)
New Inputs	195	(2)
Research Systems for a Transition Toward Sustainability	197	(4)
Acknowledgements	199	(1)
References	199	(2)
Summary: Towards Global Sustainability	201	(1)
Part IVe Closing Session	202	(7)
Closing Address	203	(4)
Science and Policy	203	(2)
Prospects for the Climate Change Negotiations	205	(2)
The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change	207	(2)
Index	209