Change and Continuity in the 2000 and 2002 Elections

by Abramson, Paul R.; Aldrich, John H.; Rohde, David W.

• ISBN13: 9781568027425
• ISBN10: 1568027427
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-03-01
• Publisher: Cq Pr

Author Biography

Paul R. Abramson is professor of political science at Michigan State University John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University David W. Rohde is University Distinguished Professor in the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University

Table of Contents

Tables and Figures	vii
Preface	xi
PART 1 The 2000 Presidential Election	1	(66)
1 The Nomination Struggle	12	(19)
Who Ran	13	(4)
The Rules of the Nomination System	17	(6)
Why Bush Won	23 31	(2)
Why Gore Won	25	(2)
The Conventions	27	(4)
2 The General Election Campaign	31	(15)
The Strategic Context and the Candidates' Choices	31	(2)
From Labor Day to the Debates	33	(3)
The Debates: The Republicans Surpass Low Expectations	36	(2)
Final Efforts	38	(5)
Did the Campaign Matter?	43	(3)
3 The Election Results	46	(21)
The Election Rules	51	(2)
The Pattern of Results	53	(3)
State-by-State Results	56	(5)
Electoral Change in the Postwar South	61	(2)
The Electoral-Vote Balance	63	(4)
PART 2 Voting Behavior in the 2000 Presidential Election	67	(126)
4 Who Voted?	71	(25)
Turnout from 1828 through 1920	71	(3)
Turnout from 1920 through 2000	74	(3)
Turnout among Social Groups	77	(7)
Why Has Turnout Declined?	84	(7)
Does Low Turnout Matter?	91	(5)
5 Social Forces and the Vote	96	(25)
How Social Groups Voted in 2000	97	(9)
How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years	106	(13)
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down	119	(2)
6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote	121	(28)
Attitudes toward the Candidates	122	(6)
Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations	128	(2)
The Concerns of the Electorate	130	(2)
Issue Positions and Perceptions	132	(3)
Issue Voting Criteria	135	(4)
Apparent Issue Voting in 2000	139	(9)
Conclusion	148	(1)
7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice	149	(19)
What Is Retrospective Voting?	150	(3)
Evaluations of Government Performance	153	(3)
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent	156	(5)
Evaluations of the Incumbent 161
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations	161	(5)
Conclusion	166	(2)
8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote	168	(25)
Party Identification: The Standard View	168	(1)
Party Identification: An Alternative View	169	(1)
Party Identification in the Electorate	170	(6)
Party Identification and the Vote	176	(2)
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations	178	(11)
Conclusion	189	(4)
PART 3 The 2000 and 2002 Congressional Elections	193	(86)
9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2000	198	(40)
Election Outcomes in 2000	198	(11)
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes	209	(11)
The 2000 Elections: The Impact on Congress	220	(7)
The 2002 Elections and Beyond	227	(11)
10 The Congressional Electorate in 2000	238	(14)
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote	238	(4)
Issues and the Congressional Vote	242	(1)
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote	243	(1)
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote	244	(2)
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum	246	(2)
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote	248	(2)
Conclusion	250	(2)
11 The 2002 Congressional Elections	252	(27)
The Pattern of Outcomes	252	(2)
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results	254	(4)
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections	258	(11)
The 2002 Elections: The Impact on Congress	269	(4)
The 2004 Elections and Beyond	273	(6)
PART 4 The 2000 and 2002 Elections in Perspective	279	(18)
12 The 2000 and 2002 Elections and the Future of American Politics	282	(15)
Prospects for the Democrats	286	(4)
Prospects for the Republicans	290	(3)
Prospects for a New Political Party	293	(2)
Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility	295	(2)
Notes	297	(52)
Suggested Readings	349	(10)
Index	359