Change and Continuity in the 2000 Elections

by Abramson, Paul R.; Aldrich, John H.; Rohde, David W.

• ISBN13: 9781568027401
• ISBN10: 1568027400
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2002-03-01
• Publisher: Cq Pr

Author Biography

Paul R. Abramson is professor of political science at Michigan State University John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University David W. Rohde is University Distinguished Professor in the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University

Table of Contents

Tables and Figures	viii
Preface	xii
PART 1 The 2000 Presidential Election	1	(66)
The Nomination Struggle	12	(19)
Who Ran	13	(4)
The Rules of the Nomination System	17	(6)
Why Bush Won	23	(2)
Why Gore Won	25	(2)
The Conventions	27	(4)
The General Election Campaign	31	(15)
The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices	31	(2)
From Labor Day to the Debates	33	(3)
The Debates: The Republicans Surpass Low Expectations	36	(2)
Final Efforts	38	(5)
Did the Campaign Matter?	43	(3)
The Election Results	46	(21)
The Election Rules	51	(2)
The Pattern of Results	53	(3)
State-by-State Results	56	(5)
Electoral Change in the Postwar South	61	(2)
The Electoral-Vote Balance	63	(4)
PART 2 Voting Behavior in the 2000 Presidential Election	67	(126)
Who Voted?	71	(25)
Turnout from 1828 Through 1920	71	(3)
Turnout from 1920 Through 2000	74	(3)
Turnout among Social Groups	77	(7)
Why Has Turnout Declined?	84	(7)
Does Low Turnout Matter?	91	(5)
Social Forces and the Vote	96	(25)
How Social Groups Voted in 2000	97	(9)
How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years	106	(13)
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down	119	(2)
Candidates, Issues, and the Vote	121	(28)
Attitudes Toward the Candidates	122	(6)
Prospective Evaluations	128	(2)
The Concerns of the Electorate	130	(2)
Issue Positions and Perceptions	132	(3)
Issue Voting Criteria	135	(4)
Apparent Issue Voting in 2000	139	(9)
Conclusion	148	(1)
Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice	149	(19)
What Is Retrospective Voting?	150	(3)
Evaluations of Governmental Performance	153	(3)
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent	156	(5)
Evaluations of the Incumbent	161	(1)
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations	161	(5)
Conclusion	166	(2)
Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote	168	(25)
Party Identification: The Standard View	168	(1)
Party Identification: An Alternative View	169	(1)
Party Identification in the Electorate	170	(6)
Party Identification and the Vote	176	(2)
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations	178	(11)
Conclusion	189	(4)
PART 3 The 2000 Congressional Election	193	(58)
Candidates and Outcomes in 2000	197	(40)
Election Outcomes in 2000	197	(11)
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes	208	(11)
The 2000 Elections: The Impact on Congress	219	(7)
The 2002 Elections and Beyond	226	(11)
The Congressional Electorate in 2000	237	(14)
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote	237	(4)
Issues and the Congressional Vote	241	(1)
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote	242	(2)
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote	244	(1)
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum	245	(2)
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote	247	(2)
Conclusion	249	(2)
PART 4 The 2000 Elections in Perspective	251	(16)
The 2000 Elections and the Future of American Politics	255	(12)
Prospects for the Democrats	259	(1)
Prospects for the Republicans	260	(2)
Prospects for a New Political Party	262	(2)
Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility	264	(3)
Notes	267	(48)
Suggested Readings	315	(10)
Index	325