China and India, 2025 A Comparative Assessment

by Wolf, Charles, Jr.; Dalal, Siddhartha; Davanzo, Julie; Larson, Eric V.; Akhmedjonov, Alisher R.; Dogo, Harun; Huang, Meilinda; Montoya, Silvia

• ISBN13: 9780833050427
• ISBN10: 0833050427
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-09-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

China and India, the world's two most populous countries, will exercise increasing influence in international affairs in the coming decades, and each country's role on the world stage will be affected by the progress that it makes and by the competition and cooperation that develop between them. This monograph focuses on the progress China and India seem likely to achieve from 2010 through 2025 in four domains: demography, macroeconomics, science and technology, and defense spending and procurement. In each domain, the authors seek answers to these questions: Who is ahead? By how much? and Why? The authors find that India has distinct advantages over China in terms of demographics; that the two countries are surprisingly close in terms of forecasted economic growth, although China's overall economic output is likely to remain significantly higher than India's; and that, for both science and technology and defense spending and procurement, China's current substantial margins over India are likely to rise but by amounts that will vary widely depending on several alternative scenarios. The monograph concludes with implications for policy and for further research. Book jacket.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Tables	p. xi
Summary	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xxi
Abbreviations	p. xxiii
Objectives, Background, Context
Population Trends in China and India: Demographic Dividend or Demographic Drag?	p. 7
Population Growth and Its Components	p. 7
Birth Rates	p. 9
Death Rates	p. 12
Population Growth Rates	p. 13
Age-Sex Structure of the Population	p. 14
Working-Age and Dependent Populations	p. 16
Youth	p. 16
Working-Age Population	p. 17
Older Population	p. 18
Dependency Ratios	p. 19
Sex Ratios	p. 21
Opportunity to Reap a Demographic Dividend	p. 22
Education	p. 25
Health	p. 26
Women in the Economy	p. 27
Infrastructure	p. 28
Other Implications of Changes in Population Age-Sex Composition	p. 29
Implications of Gender Imbalances and the Changing Composition of "Dependents"	p. 29
Implications for the Armed Forces	p. 30
Regional Differences	p. 31
Uncertainties and Alternative Scenarios	p. 32
Summary Assessment of the Relative Strengths and "Weaknesses Brought About by Demographic Trends in China and India	p. 33
China-India: A Macroeconomic Assessment	p. 37
Introduction: Forecasts of Economic Growth in China and India	p. 37
Studies by Academic Authors and Institutions	p. 39
Studies by Business Organizations and Authors	p. 43
Studies by International Organizations	p. 46
Similarities and Differences Among the Clusters	p. 47
Five Growth Scenarios and Concluding Observations	p. 51
Science and Technology	p. 55
Introduction	p. 55
Highlights and Global Trends	p. 56
Global Trends	p. 56
China	p. 62
India	p. 63
Quality and Comparability of S&E Diplomas and the Skilled Diaspora	p. 64
Quality of Engineers Compared	p. 64
Graduate and Postgraduate Engineering	p. 66
Emerging Models of Diaspora Mobilization	p. 66
Science and Technology Forecast: India and China in 2025	p. 67
Projection	p. 68
Discussion	p. 70
A Qualitative Look at China's and India's Innovation	p. 72
"Reverse Innovation" and the Bottom of the Pyramid	p. 72
High-End Innovation	p. 74
Other Approximations to R&D	p. 75
Conclusions	p. 76
Chinese and Indian Defense and Defense Procurement Spending to 2025	p. 79
Analytic Approach	p. 80
Baseline Estimates for China	p. 82
Baseline Estimates for India	p. 86
Baseline Estimate of Indian Defense Procurement Spending	p. 90
Comparative Forecasts of Defense and Defense Procurement Spending in 2025	p. 91
Growth Rate Forecasts of Defense Spending in 2025	p. 91
Parametric Defense Spending Forecasts Based on Varied Assumptions About Real GDP Growth Rates and Defense Shares of GDP	p. 93
Growth Rate Forecasts of Defense Procurement Spending in 2025	p. 94
Broader Comparisons	p. 96
Update: The Chinese and Indian 2010 Defense Budgets	p. 96
Chinese Defense Spending in 2010	p. 97
Indian Defense Spending in 2010	p. 97
India or China: Which Is Likely to Have the Edge in 2025?	p. 98
Guns, Butter, and Defense Share of GDP	p. 98
Key Drivers of Defense and Defense Procurement Spending Estimates	p. 98
Apples and Oranges: "National Defense" Versus "National Security" Spending	p. 99
Spending on Strategic Nuclear, Missile, and Space Forces	p. 99
Chinese Opacity and Indian Transparency in Defense Spending	p. 100
Conclusions	p. 101
Conclusions and Implications	p. 103
Demography	p. 104
Macroeconomics	p. 106
Science and Technology	p. 107
Defense and Procurement Expenditures	p. 109
Implications	p. 110
Appendixes
Meta-Analysis of Economic Growth in China and India	p. 113
Detailed Calculations for, and Additional Figures Showing, the Projections in Chapter Four	p. 115
Analytic Tables	p. 125
References	p. 131
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