China Shifts Gears

by Gallagher, Kelly Sims

• ISBN13: 9780262572323
• ISBN10: 026257232X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-05-05
• Publisher: Mit Pr

Summary

Chinese production of automobiles rose from 42,000 cars per year in 1990 to 2.3 million in 2004; the number of passenger vehicles on the road doubled every two and a half years through the 1990s and continues to grow. In China Shifts Gears, Kelly Sims Gallagher identifies an unprecedented opportunity for China to "shift gears" and avoid the usual problems associated with the automobile industry-including urban air pollution caused by tailpipe emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, and high dependence on oil imports-while spurring economic development. This transformation will only take place if the Chinese government plays a leadership role in building domestic technological capacity and pushing foreign automakers to transfer cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies to China. If every new car sold in China had the cleanest and most energy-efficient of the automotive technologies already available, urban air pollution could be minimized, emissions of climate-altering greenhouse gases would be lower than projected, and the Chinese auto industry would continue to flourish and contribute to China's steady economic development. But so far, Gallagher finds, the opportunity to shift gears has been missed. Gallagher looks in detail at three U.S.-Chinese joint ventures: Beijing Jeep, Shanghai GM, and Chang'An Ford. These case studies are based on original research, including interviews with 90 government officials, industry representatives, and experts in both countries. Drawing from the case studies, Gallagher explores the larger issues of the environmental and economic effects of technology transfer in the automobile industry and the policy implications of "leapfrogging" to more advanced technology.

Author Biography

Kelly Sims Gallagher is Director of the Energy Technology Innovation Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	ix
Introduction	1	(6)
Shifting Gears: Problems and Opportunities	2	(1)
Terminology	3	(2)
Methodology	5	(1)
Road Map	6	(1)
The Energy and Environmental Dimensions of Cars in China	7	(14)
Energy Dimensions of Automobiles in China	8	(5)
Health and Environmental Dimensions of Automobiles in China	13	(8)
Zoom, Zoom, Zoom: The Auto Industry and Economic Development	21	(10)
The Chinese Economy	21	(1)
The Central Role of the Auto Industry in Economic Development	22	(2)
The Structure of the Chinese Auto Industry	24	(1)
China's Entry into the WTO	24	(2)
The Effect of the WTO	26	(2)
The Economic Costs of the Chinese Auto Industry	28	(3)
Foreign Technology in the Development of China's Automotive Sector	31	(16)
Prewar Infancy	32	(2)
The Early Postwar Years	34	(1)
Stunted Development	35	(2)
A Second Infancy	37	(1)
Trying to Learn from Foreigners	38	(1)
1994 Auto Policy	39	(1)
Rapid Growth but Continuing Small Scale	40	(2)
Thrust into the Unfettered Free Market	42	(1)
The 2004 Auto-Industry Policy	43	(1)
Conclusion	44	(3)
Beijing Jeep	47	(16)
China's First Experiment with a Foreign Joint Venture	47	(8)
Trial-and-Error Technology Transfer through the 1990s	55	(4)
Lack of Modernization	59	(4)
Shanghai GM	63	(16)
The Risk Takers	63	(8)
Raising the Bar for Technology Transfer	71	(3)
``Manufacturing Alone, Not Technology Development''	74	(5)
Chang'An Ford	79	(14)
The Risk Averse	79	(7)
Good Enough for China	86	(5)
Revamping the Strategy	91	(2)
Technology Transfer, Energy, and the Environment	93	(28)
Environmental Performance and Fuel Efficiency	94	(3)
Why U.S. Firms Did Not Transfer Cleaner Technologies	97	(18)
Why Technology Transfer Is Not Improving Environmental Quality in China	115	(2)
Barriers and Incentives	117	(4)
Technology Transfer, Innovation, and Economic Development	121	(20)
Technology Cooperation	122	(3)
Stagnation and Technological Lock-In	125	(4)
Technology Transfer, FDI, and Economic Development	129	(5)
FDI and Chinese Innovation Capabilities	134	(7)
Limits to Leapfrogging and How to Overcome Them: Implications for Policy, Theory, and Future Research	141	(24)
Limits to Leapfrogging	145	(3)
Surmounting the Challenges and Pursuing a Strategy of Leapfrogging	148	(2)
Implications for Chinese Policy	150	(3)
Implications for U.S. Policy	153	(4)
Implications for International Policy	157	(3)
Implications for Theory	160	(1)
Implications for Future Research	161	(2)
Conclusion	163	(2)
Appendix A: Acronyms	165	(2)
Appendix B: Chronology of Events	167	(10)
Appendix C: Sino-Foreign Joint Ventures in the Chinese Automobile Industry, 1984--2005	177	(4)
Notes	181	(8)
References	189	(14)
Index	203