China's Futures Scenarios for the World's Fastest Growing Economy, Ecology, and Society

by Ogilvy, James; Schwartz, Peter

• ISBN13: 9780787952006
• ISBN10: 0787952001
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-01-24
• Publisher: Jossey-Bass

Summary

As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build business strategies for years to come. Click here to read the preface from this book.

Author Biography

JAMES OGILVY and PETER SCHWARTZ are partners in Global Business Network (GBN), a consulting and research firm that is devoted to helping clients develop business strategies that fit the emerging realities of global markets. They are responsible for the widespread use of business scenarios, a process they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
Acknowledgments	xiii
Introduction: China in the 21st Century: The World's Biggest Story	1	(6)
Part One: The Way of China	7	(72)
China Basics	9	(8)
Driving Forces	17	(58)
China's Population Future	36	(3)
China: The Billion-Pound Gorilla in World Population	39	(1)
China's Fertility Freefall	40	(2)
One Child Policy?	42	(2)
Pruning the Family Tree	44	(3)
Live Long and Prosper	47	(1)
China Comes of Age	48	(1)
The Competitive Advantage of Adults	49	(1)
A Nation of Savers	50	(1)
The Bright City Lights	51	(1)
Still Among the Most Rural Nations	52	(1)
Of Showers and TVs	53	(22)
The Worms in the Core	75	(4)
Part Two: Scenarios of the Future of China	79	(58)
An Introduction to Scenarios and Development Models	81	(6)
China Web	87	(14)
The New Mandarins	101	(20)
The Thief of Beijing	121	(16)
Part Three: Implications	137	(16)
How to Use These Scenarios	145	(6)
For Our Children	151	(2)
Index	153