Clear Thinking with Psychology Separating Sense from Nonsense

by Ruscio, John

• ISBN13: 9780534536596
• ISBN10: 053453659X
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-07-13
• Publisher: Wadsworth Publishing

Summary

Ruscio's new book provides a tangible and compelling framework for making that distinction. Because we are inundated with "scientific" claims, the author does not merely differentiate science and pseudoscience, but goes further to teach the fundamentals of scientific reasoning on which readers can base their evaluation of information.

Table of Contents

Preface	xiii
Challenging Widely Accepted Claims	xiii
Empowering Students to Evalute Claims for Themselves	xv
Distinguishing Science from Pseudoscience	xv
Teaching Scientific Reasoning Skills	xv
Using Memorable Examples	xvi
Exploring Material Relevant to Many Courses	xvi
Broad Coverage Is Complemented by Electronic Resources	xvi
Acknowledgments	xvii
About the Author	xviii
Evaluating Sources Whether in Print or on the World Wide Web	xix
Sharpening and Leveling	xx
Criteria for Evaluating the Quality of Sources	xxi
Popularity	xxi
Reviews	xxii
The Internet as a Research Tool	xxiii
The Content of Web Sites	xxiii
Internet Searches	xxiv
Thinking for Yourself	xxv
Introduction: Pseudoscience and the Need for Clear Thinking	1	(15)
Separating Sense from Nonsense	3	(3)
Studying Human Reasoning	3	(1)
Systematic Errors Reveal Our Mental Shortcuts	4	(1)
The Pros and Cons of Relying on Shortcuts	5	(1)
Thinking Clearly	5	(1)
Applying the Tools of Clear Thinking	6	(1)
Ten Characteristics of Pseudoscience	6	(4)
Outward Appearance of Science	6	(1)
Absence of Skeptical Peer Review	7	(1)
Reliance on Personal Experience	7	(1)
Evasion of Risky Tests	8	(1)
Retreats to the Supernatural	8	(1)
The Mantra of Holism	8	(1)
Tolerance of Inconsistencies	9	(1)
Appeals to Authority	9	(1)
Promising the Impossible	9	(1)
Stagnation	10	(1)
The Plan of This Book	10	(6)
Deception	11	(1)
Self-Deception	11	(1)
Psychological Tricks	12	(1)
Decision Making and Ethics	13	(3)
Part One Deception
Language: Misleading and Evasive Tactics	16	(14)
Weasel Words and Framing Effects	16	(4)
Cooperation and Conversational Maxims	20	(7)
Quality: The Myth of ``Health Food''	20	(1)
Quantity: Suggestive and Leading Questions	21	(2)
Relation: The Irrelevant Language of ``Alternative'' Health Care	23	(2)
Manner: The Emptiness of ``Holism''	25	(2)
Closing Thoughts: False Dichotomies and the Slippery Slope	27	(3)
Magic: The Allure of Exotic Rituals, Fantasy, and Mysticism	30	(12)
Believing in Magic	31	(1)
Wishful Thinking	31	(2)
Belief in a Vitalistic Energy	33	(1)
Putting the ``Human Energy Field'' to the Test	34	(1)
The Creation of Superstitions and Exotic Rituals	35	(2)
Superstitions as Representative Thinking	37	(1)
Maintenance of Superstitions	38	(1)
Abuses of Science in Favor of Mysticism	39	(1)
The Magic of Modern Technology	40	(2)
Authority: Appeals to Blind Obedience	42	(14)
Milgram's Obedience Research	42	(3)
Understanding Milgram's Results	45	(1)
When Should We Obey?	46	(1)
Untrustworthy Authorities	47	(3)
The ``Ancient Wisdom'' Fallacy	47	(1)
The Popularity Fallacy	48	(1)
The Fallacy of Self-Proclaimed Expertise	48	(2)
Political Lobbying as a Warning Flag	50	(6)
The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine	50	(2)
The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act	52	(4)
Part Two Self-Deception
Experience: The Limitations of Testimonials as Evidence	56	(12)
Self-Deception	57	(1)
Competing Explanations	58	(7)
The Placebo Effect	58	(2)
Spontaneous Remission	60	(1)
The Disease Ran Its Natural Course	60	(1)
The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases	61	(1)
Misdiagnosis	61	(1)
The ``Worried Well''	61	(1)
Symptomatic Relief	62	(1)
Hedged Bets	62	(1)
Derivative Benefits	62	(1)
Psychological Distortion of Reality	63	(1)
The Bottom Line	64	(1)
Probabilistic General Principles	65	(3)
Plausibility: All Beliefs Are Not Created Equal	68	(12)
Magnet Therapy: Claims Versus Reality	69	(3)
Magnets and Water	70	(1)
Magnets and the Human Body	71	(1)
The Strength of ``Therapeutic'' Magnets	71	(1)
Homeopathy: Empty Promises	72	(3)
The Law of Similars	72	(1)
The Law of Infinitesimals	73	(1)
Evasive Maneuver #1: Lowering the Dilution Factor	74	(1)
Evasive Maneuver #2: ``Water Memory''	74	(1)
Alien Abductions: A Modern-Day Misunderstanding	75	(5)
The Contamination Effect	75	(2)
Dull Fantasies and Contradictions	77	(1)
Sleep Paralysis	78	(2)
Association: Establishing and Interpreting Correlations	80	(12)
Presuming an Association Through Mere Examples	82	(1)
Presuming an Association Through a Lone Rate	83	(1)
Interpreting a Correlation	84	(4)
Causal Relationships Between Correlated Events	84	(1)
Three Conditions for Causality	85	(1)
Examining Patterns Across Multiple Correlations	86	(2)
Beware the Media	88	(2)
Do Horoscopes Predict Anything?	90	(2)
Science: Evaluating Claims to Knowledge	92	(14)
Scientific Reasoning	93	(5)
Falsifiability	93	(1)
Logic	94	(1)
Comprehensiveness	95	(1)
Honesty	95	(1)
Replicability	96	(1)
Sufficiency	97	(1)
Antiscientific Beliefs: Postmodernism and Other Fallacious Ideas	98	(5)
Postmodernism	98	(3)
The ``What Works Is Different for Everybody'' Fallacy	101	(1)
The ``Probability Is Irrelevant to the Unique Individual'' Fallacy	102	(1)
The Rejection of Science as a Pseudoscientist's Dream	103	(3)
Part Three Psychological Tricks
Risk: Biased Perceptions and the Media Paradox	106	(9)
Vividness	106	(2)
Availability	108	(1)
The Media Paradox	109	(2)
Falling Airplane Parts Revisited	111	(1)
A Radical Conjecture	112	(1)
Mindful Attention to Media Reports	113	(2)
Belief: Confirmation Bias, Post-Hockery, and Overconfidence	115	(14)
Discovery Versus Verification: The Importance of Prediction	116	(4)
The Bible Code	116	(2)
The ``Hot Hand'' in Basketball	118	(2)
Confirmation Bias	120	(5)
The Rorschach Ink Blot Test	121	(1)
Graphology: Handwriting Analysis	122	(1)
Polygraphy: The ``Lie Detector'' Test	122	(3)
Absent or Misleading Feedback	125	(1)
Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence	126	(1)
Foiling Post-Hockery	127	(1)
Answers to the Confidence Quiz	128	(1)
Schemes: The Seductiveness of Grand Conspiracy Theories	129	(11)
The Three Roles in a Conspiracy Theory	129	(2)
Conspirators	129	(1)
Saviors	130	(1)
Dupes	130	(1)
A Grand Conspiracy Theory: ``Area 51''	131	(2)
The Role of the Media	131	(1)
Thinking Clearly About Area 51	132	(1)
Problems Facing Any Grand Conspiracy Theory	133	(1)
The ``Hidden Cure'' Conspiracy	134	(4)
Intense Competition Is Ignored	135	(1)
The Alleged Profit Motive Makes No Sense	135	(1)
Science Is Never Going to Cure All Disease	136	(1)
Monumental Callousness Is Presumed	136	(1)
Why Does the Theory of Hidden Cures Persist?	137	(1)
Challenging Conspiracies	138	(2)
Illusions: The Perception of Control	140	(12)
The Illusion of Control	141	(1)
The Certainty Effect	142	(1)
The Dangers of Illusions of Control	143	(2)
Belief in the ``Just World'' and the Blaming of Victims	143	(1)
Self-Blame	144	(1)
Learned Helplessness	145	(1)
The Downside to Mental Imagery	145	(1)
The ``Choose to Be Healthy'' Fallacy	146	(2)
Prayer and Religion-Motivated Medical Neglect	148	(4)
Part Four Decision Making and Ethics
Assessment: Classical Decision Theory	152	(13)
Mammograms	154	(1)
Classical Decision Theory	155	(1)
The Impact of Low Base Rates	156	(1)
Lie Detection	157	(1)
Two Different Perspectives on Accuracy	158	(1)
The Impact of Selection Ratios	159	(1)
Nutritional Scams	160	(3)
Validity	160	(1)
Base Rates	161	(1)
Selection Ratio	162	(1)
Protecting Against Professional Misconduct	163	(2)
Decisions: Clinical Versus Statistical Approaches	165	(14)
Two Approaches to Decision Making	166	(1)
Why Is the Statistical Approach Superior?	167	(5)
Validity	168	(1)
Units of Measurement	168	(1)
Reliability	169	(1)
Redundancy	170	(1)
Regression Effects	171	(1)
Adherence to the Clinical Approach	172	(4)
Knowledge Deficit	172	(1)
Fear of Computers	172	(1)
Fear of Unemployment	173	(1)
Belief in the Efficacy of One's Judgment	173	(1)
Theoretical Identifications	174	(1)
The ``Dehumanizing'' Feel of Statistical Equations	175	(1)
Mistaken Conception of Ethics	175	(1)
Embracing Statistical Decisions	176	(3)
Pro/Con Lists	176	(1)
Professional Practice	176	(2)
Statistics Do Apply to the Individual	178	(1)
Ethics: The Use and Promotion of Unverified Treatments	179	(13)
Overlooking the Obvious in Favor of the Unlikely	179	(1)
Repressed Memories and Multiple Personalities	180	(6)
Cost-Benefit Ratio	186	(2)
Skewed Projections of Benefit and Harm	186	(1)
The Overlooked Opportunity Costs	187	(1)
Truly Informed Consent and Patient Autonomy	188	(2)
The ``Health Freedom'' Fallacy	190	(2)
Tools: Suggestions for Clear Thinking	192	(11)
The Dangers of a Pseudoscientific Approach to Health Care	194	(1)
Thinking Clearly	195	(6)
Reconceptualize Issues in Multiple Ways	195	(1)
Beware of Wishful Thinking	196	(1)
Consider the Legitimacy of Authorities	196	(1)
Seek Risky Tests, Not Weak Confirmation	196	(1)
Don't Be Misled by Testimonials	196	(1)
Keep in Touch with Reality	197	(1)
Remember That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation	197	(1)
Beware the Media Paradox	197	(1)
Formulate Multiple Working Hypotheses	198	(1)
Ask What Can Be Predicted	198	(1)
Challenge Conspiracy Theories	198	(1)
Watch Out for Illusions of Control	198	(1)
Be Careful Not to Blame Victims	199	(1)
Consider Both Positive and Negative Consequences of a Claim	199	(1)
Pay Attention to Base Rates	199	(1)
Accept Some Mistakes in Order to Minimize Error	199	(1)
Take Advantage of the Power of Statistical Decision Making	200	(1)
Don't Misinterpret Regression Toward the Mean	200	(1)
Consider Both Costs and Benefits	200	(1)
Practice Scientific Reasoning	201	(1)
A Closing Thought on Wishful Thinking	201	(2)
References	203	(14)
Index	217