A Climate Modelling Primer

by Mcguffie, Kendal; Henderson-Sellers, Ann

• ISBN13: 9780471955580
• ISBN10: 0471955582
• Edition: CD
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1996-11-01
• Publisher: John Wiley & Son Ltd

Summary

This book explains the basis and mechanisms of all types of physically based climate models. It uses simple examples and analogies to introduce concepts fundamental to climate modeling. The book moves from the climate modeling pyramid to the three-dimensional general circulation climate model. It encourages a discriminating interpretation of the results of climate models and assist readers in comprehending the complexities and applications of the whole range of climate models.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi	(2)
Acknowledgements	xiii
CHAPTER 1 Climate	1	(40)
1.1 The Components of Climate	1	(6)
Introduction and outline of the book	2	(2)
The Climate system	4	(3)
1.2 Climate change assessment	7	(10)
1.2.1 The scientific perspective	8	(6)
1.2.2 The human perspective	14	(3)
1.3 Climate forcings	17	(14)
1.3.1 External causes of climatic change	18	(3)
Milankovitch variations	18	(3)
Solar activity	21	(1)
Other external factors	21	(1)
1.3.2 Internal factors: Human-induced changes	21	(7)
Greenhouse gases	22	(1)
Tropospheric aerosols and clouds	22	(1)
Stratospheric ozone	22	(3)
Land-surface changes	25	(3)
1.3.3 Internal factors: Natural changes	28	(4)
Volcanic eruptions	28	(2)
Ocean circulation changes	30	(1)
1.4 Climate feedbacks and sensitivity	31	(8)
1.4.1 The ice-albedo feedback mechanism	33	(1)
1.4.2 The water-vapour `greenhouse'	33	(1)
1.4.3 Cloud feedbacks	33	(1)
1.4.4 Combining feedback effects	34	(5)
1.5 Range of questions for Climate modelling	39	(1)
Recommended reading	40	(1)
CHAPTER 2 A History of and Introduction to Climate Models	41	(27)
2.1 Introducing Climate modelling	41	(2)
The need for simplification	41	(1)
Resolution in time and space	42	(1)
2.2 Types of climate models	43	(10)
2.2.1 Energy balance climate models	45	(1)
2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative--convective climate models	46	(1)
2.2.3 Two-dimensional Climate models	47	(1)
2.2.4 General circulation models	48	(5)
2.2.5 The interactive biosphere	53	(1)
2.3 History of climate modelling	53	(3)
2.4 Sensitivity of climate models	56	(5)
Equilibrium climatic States	56	(2)
Equilibrium conditions and transitivity of climate systems	58	(2)
Stability of model results	60	(1)
2.5 Parameterization of climate processes	61	(4)
Interactions in the climate system	62	(3)
The need for observations	65	(1)
2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate System: One goal of modelling	65	(1)
Recommended reading	66	(2)
CHAPTER 3 Energy Balance Models	68	(29)
3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget	68	(1)
3.2 The structure of energy balance models	69	(5)
3.2.1 Zero-dimensional EBMs	69	(3)
3.2.2 One-dimensional EBMs	72	(2)
3.3 Parameterizing the climate System for energy balance models	74	(2)
Albedo	74	(1)
Outgoing infrared radiation	75	(1)
Heat transport	75	(1)
3.4 A Basic energy balance climate model	76	(8)
Description of the EBM	81	(1)
EBM model code	82	(1)
Energy balance model exercises	82	(2)
3.5 Energy balance models and glacial cycles	84	(3)
3.6 Box models -- another form of energy balance model	87	(7)
3.6.1 A Simple box model of the ocean--atmosphere	87	(4)
3.6.2 A Coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model	91	(3)
3.7 Energy balance models: Deceptively Simple models	94	(1)
Recommended reading	95	(2)
CHAPTER 4 Computationally Efficient Models	97	(40)
4.1 Why lower complexity?	97	(1)
4.2 One-dimensional radiative-convective models	97	(4)
The structure of global radiative-convective models	99	(2)
4.3 Radiation: The driver of climate	101	(10)
4.3.1 Shortwave radiation	103	(2)
Albedo	105	(1)
Shortwave radiation subject to scattering (Rs)	105	(1)
Shortwave radiation subject to absorption (Ra)	106	(2)
4.3.2 Longwave radiation	108	(2)
4.3.3 Heat balance at the ground	110	(1)
4.4 Convective adjustment	111	(3)
4.5 Sensitivity experiments with radiative-convective models	114	(3)
Sensitivity to humidity	115	(1)
Sensitivity to Clouds	116	(1)
Sensitivity to lapse rate selected for convective adjustment	116	(1)
4.6 Development of radiative--convective models	117	(3)
Cloud prediction	118	(1)
Model sensitivity	119	(1)
Regional and local applications	120	(1)
4.7 Two-dimensional statistical dynamical climate models	120	(8)
4.7.1 Parameterizations for two-dimensional modelling	121	(6)
4.7.2 `Column' processes in two-dimensional statistical dynamical models	127	(1)
4.8 Other types of computationally efficient models	128	(6)
4.8.1 An upgraded energy balance model	128	(1)
4.8.2 Multi-column RC models	129	(3)
4.8.3 A severely truncated spectral general circulation climate model	132	(1)
4.8.4 Repeating sectors in a global `grid' model	133	(1)
4.9 Why are some climate modellers Flatlanders?	134	(1)
Recommended reading	135	(2)
CHAPTER 5 General Circulation Climate Models	137	(43)
5.1 Three-dimensional models of the climate system	137	(1)
5.2 Atmospheric general circulation models	138	(20)
5.2.1 Finite grid formulation of atmospheric models	142	(1)
5.2.2 Spectral formulation of atmospheric models	143	(4)
Representing the atmosphere with waves	143	(2)
Structure of a spectral model	145	(2)
Truncation	147	(1)
5.2.3 Atmospheric GCM components	147	(11)
Radiative transfer	149	(1)
Boundary layer	150	(2)
Cloud prediction	152	(3)
Convection processes	155	(1)
Large-scale rainfall	156	(2)
Land-surface parameterization	158	(1)
Gravity wave drag	158	(1)
5.3 Modelling the ocean circulation	158	(7)
Formulation of three-dimensional ocean models	162	(3)
5.4 Modelling the cryosphere	165	(4)
5.5 Incorporating vegetation	169	(3)
5.6 Coupling models: Towards the AOBGCM	172	(6)
Climate drift	175	(2)
The `cold start' phenomenon	177	(1)
5.7 Using GCMs	178	(1)
Recommended reading	178	(2)
CHAPTER 6 Evaluation and Exploitation of Climate Models	180	(30)
6.1 Evaluation of climate models	180	(11)
6.1.1 Intercomparisons facilitated by technology	181	(1)
6.1.2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)	181	(3)
6.1.3 Radiation and cloud intercomparisons	184	(1)
6.1.4 Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)	185	(3)
6.1.5 Comparing carbon-cycle subcomponents of climate models	188	(2)
6.1.6 Benefits gained from climate model intercomparisons	190	(1)
6.2 Exploitation of climate model predictions	191	(12)
6.2.1 Expert assessment	191	(1)
6.2.2 GCM experiments for specific applications	192	(7)
Tropical deforestation	192	(4)
Mineral deposits	196	(3)
6.2.3 Regional climate prediction	199	(2)
6.2.4 Policy development	201	(2)
6.3 Integrated assessment models	203	(4)
6.4 The future of climate modelling	207	(1)
Recommended reading	208	(2)
APPENDIX A Glossary	210	(11)
APPENDIX B About the CD	221	(2)
General Bibliography	223	(25)
Index	248