Closing the Education Gap Benefits and Costs

by Vernez, Georges; Krop, Richard A.; Rydell, Peter C.

• ISBN13: 9780833027481
• ISBN10: 0833027484
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-09-20
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

How much would it cost and what would the benefits be if blacks and Hispanics graduated from high school, went to college, and graduated from college at the same rate as non-Hispanic whites? The answer to this important question for the future of the nation is explored in this report. The costs of education would be high, increasing by about 20 percent in California and 10 percent in the rest of the nation. But the benefits, in the form of savings in public health and welfare expenditures and increased tax revenues from higher incomes, would be even higher. Indeed, the added costs of providing more education to minorities would be recouped well within the lifetime of taxpayers called upon to make the additional investments. The nation is experiencing a rapid immigration driven increase in the share of Hispanics in the school age population.

Table of Contents

Preface	v
Figures	xi
Tables	xv
Summary	xix
Acknowledgments	xxv
Introduction	1	(12)
Changing Demand for Education	1	(3)
Gap in Educational Attainment	4	(3)
Goals and Approach	7	(3)
Limitations	10	(2)
Organization of the Report	12	(1)
The Public Benefits of Education	13	(20)
Approach	15	(5)
Conceptual Framework	15	(1)
Estimated Model	16	(2)
Data	18	(1)
Limitations	19	(1)
Effect of Educational Attainment on Expenditures for Public Programs	20	(6)
Program Costs over a Person's Lifetime	20	(3)
Variations in Medicaid Program Costs by Gender, Ethnicity, and Nativity	23	(1)
Total Savings in Public Programs from Education	24	(2)
Effect of Educational Attainment on Income and Public Revenues	26	(4)
Education and Income	26	(1)
Effect on Tax Revenues	27	(3)
Conclusions	30	(3)
The Rand Education Simulation Model	33	(14)
Structure of the Model	34	(3)
Overview	34	(2)
Population Groups	36	(1)
Operationalizing the Model	37	(6)
Education Flow Rates	38	(1)
Demographic Inputs	39	(1)
Full-Time Equivalent Students	39	(1)
Education Cost Assumptions	40	(3)
Outputs of the Model	43	(1)
Uses and Limitations of the Model	44	(3)
Effects of Demographic Change on Educational Attainment	47	(10)
Projected Size and Composition of Adult Population	48	(3)
Projected Increase in Educational Attainment	51	(4)
Overall Population	51	(2)
Ethnic Groups	53	(2)
Projected Increase in Educational Attainment Gap	55	(1)
Conclusions	56	(1)
Costs and Benefits of Closing the Educational Attainment Gap for Blacks and Hispanics	57	(26)
Alternative Goals	58	(2)
Effects on Educational Attainment Gap	60	(6)
Reduced Gap Between Ethnic Groups	60	(3)
Increased Gap Between Natives and Immigrants	63	(1)
Increased Gap Between Regions	64	(2)
Increased Educational Attainment of the Labor Force	66	(2)
Effects on Educational Institutions: Increased Enrollments and Costs	68	(4)
Public and Societal Benefits and Costs	72	(6)
Conclusions	78	(5)
Effects of Immigration on Education	83	(14)
Alternative Immigration Policies	85	(1)
Effects on Size and Composition of Population	86	(3)
Effects on Educational Institutions	89	(2)
Effects on Distribution of Educational Attainment	91	(4)
Conclusions	95	(2)
Discussion and Next Steps	97	(96)
Appendix
A. Data Used to Estimate Public Program Benefits	105	(6)
B. Estimated Relationships Between Educational Attainment and Spending on Social Programs	111	(26)
C. The Elderly: A Special Case	137	(4)
D. Savings in Program Expenditures and Increases in Tax Revenues and Disposable Income Associated with Increased Educational Attainment	141	(4)
E. Education Flow Rates	145	(20)
F. Annual Flows for Births, Deaths, and Immigration	165	(14)
G. Education Cost Estimates	179	(6)
H. Adult Population in 1990 and Projected to 2015	185	(4)
I. Estimates of Costs and Benefits	189	(4)
References	193