Colombian Labyrinth The Synergy of Drugs and Insugency and Its Implications for Regional Stability

by Rabasa, Angel; Chalk, Peter

• ISBN13: 9780833029942
• ISBN10: 0833029940
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-07-13
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	ix
Tables	xi
Summary	xiii
Acknowledgments	xxi
Acronyms	xxiii
Map
Introduction: Sources of Instability	1	(10)
Political Trends	2	(2)
Economic Trends	4	(2)
Social Trends	6	(2)
Roadmap to the Report	8	(3)
The Illegal Drug Trade	11	(12)
Scope and Dimensions	11	(3)
The Main Players	14	(2)
Impact of Drug Trade on Colombia and the Region	16	(2)
Impact of the Drug Trade on U.S. Interests	18	(2)
The U.S. Response	20	(3)
Origins and Development of the Guerrillas	23	(16)
The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)	23	(7)
The National Liberation Army (ELN)	30	(1)
Other Guerrilla Groups	31	(1)
Sources of Guerrilla Income: Links to the Drug Trade	32	(1)
Other Sources of Guerrilla Income	33	(2)
The Arms Pipeline	35	(2)
Supporting Networks and Information-Age Warfare	37	(2)
Guerrilla Strategy	39	(14)
Grand Strategy	39	(7)
Controlling the Grass Roots: The Local Dimension of Guerrilla Strategy	46	(7)
The Illegal Self-Defense Groups: Cause or Symptom of the Disorder?	53	(8)
Origins, Characteristics, and Organization	53	(4)
Allegations of Collusion with the Colombian Military	57	(1)
Links to the Drug Trade	58	(1)
Political Actors or Criminals?	59	(2)
Colombian Government Strategy	61	(10)
Plan Colombia	61	(3)
Counter-Narcotics Strategy	64	(3)
Role of the United States	67	(4)
The Peace Negotiations	71	(8)
Prospects for a Peace Settlement	74	(4)
Conclusions	78	(1)
Colombian Futures	79	(6)
Successful Peace Agreement	79	(1)
Turning the Tide	80	(1)
Stalemate	81	(1)
The Peruvian Model	82	(1)
Disintegration	82	(1)
FARC Takeover or Power-Sharing	82	(1)
Internationalization of the Conflict	83	(1)
Probable Future Path	83	(2)
A Wider Conflict?	85	(8)
Panama	85	(2)
Venezuela	87	(1)
Ecuador	88	(2)
Brazil	90	(1)
Conclusions	91	(2)
Implications for U.S. Interests	93	(8)
Strategic-Level Considerations	93	(2)
Operational-Level Implications	95	(2)
Regional Cooperation	97	(2)
Conclusions	99	(2)
Appendix: The Colombian Armed Forces	101	(6)
Bibliography	107