Comet and Asteroid Impact Hazards on a Populated Earth

by Lewis

• ISBN13: 9780124467606
• ISBN10: 0124467601
• Edition: Disk
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-09-23
• Publisher: Elsevier Science

Summary

Comet and Asteroid Impact Hazards explores the anticipated consequences of comet and asteroid impact. It presents the first computer simulations of the hazards of comet and asteroid bombardment of a populated Earth. Previous estimates of fatality and damage rates on the 100 to 10,000 year time scale are shown to be too low because they neglect rare, highly lethal outriders of the populations of bombarding objects, those with exceptional strength, unusually low entry velocity, and near-horizontal entry angles. This is the first realistic assessment of both the mean casualty rate and the expected statistical fluctuations in that rate. A breakdown of fatality and damage rates by impactor energy and compositional class suggests lessons for both asteroid search strategies and interdiction techniques. This book is written so that anyone with college level experience in the physical sciences can understand it. It includes a disk that allows the reader to simulate impact catastrophes. It serves as a useful resource in various physical sciences courses such as astronomy, planetary science, and environmental science. * Quantatively rigorous treatment of the state of impact hazard prediction, including stuctural blast damage, firestorm ignition, tsunami generation * Realistic treatment of the impact on population, composition, and orbits * Attention to economic and public policy issues of warning, interdiction, and asteroid and comet search strategies * Comparison of simulation results to historical records * Detailed and realistic Monte Carlo simulation software included

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
1 Introduction	1	(26)
Historical Records	1	(10)
Quantitative Treatments of Entry and Impact Phenomena	11	(1)
Risk Assessment	12	(15)
2 The Impact Flux	27	(12)
Mass and Energy Distributions	27	(7)
Orbits and Entry Velocities	34	(5)
3 The Impactor	39	(36)
Impactor Classes	39	(7)
Chemical Properties of Impactors	46	(4)
Physical Properties of Impactors	50	(25)
4 The Impact Process
5 The Target	75	(8)
Population Density and Distribution	75	(2)
Hazards to Populated Areas	77	(1)
Hazards in and on the Ocean	77	(2)
Property Damage and Destruction	79	(1)
Particularly Hazardous Targets	80	(3)
6 Method of Calculation	83	(6)
Program Structure	83	(4)
The Typical Run	87	(2)
7 Results	89	(34)
Results of 100 X 1-Year Runs	89	(13)
Results of 1000 X 1-Year Runs	102	(14)
Results of Longer Runs	116	(7)
8 Implications for Hazard Assessment and Abatement	123	(24)
Assessment of the Impact Hazard	123	(2)
Limitations on Detection Strategies	125	(5)
Economics of Search and Tracking	130	(4)
Hazard Abatement	134	(13)
9 Areas Requiring Further Study
10 Conclusions
Appendix A Program HAZARDS Version 5.5 Owner's Manual	147	(8)
Appendix B Program HAZARDS Version 5.5 Program Listing	155	(14)
Appendix C Program HAZARDS Version 5.5 Sample Output	169	(18)
References	187	(8)
Index	195