Community Policy Analysis Modeling

by Otto, Daniel M.; Deller, Steven C.; Johnson, Thomas G.

• ISBN13: 9780813804538
• ISBN10: 0813804531
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-01-18
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Summary

With the shifting of responsibility for designing, planning and managing federally funded programs to state and local government, there is a need for a new group of public servants and others to be aware of how to deal with these responsibilities and challenges. The editors have been active in conducting training with state and local policy makers on how to deal with models using the material in this proposed work. The proposed work outlines and documents a set of community level analytical tools and procedures to assist local decision-making processes. The major goals of the work are to provide a reference for future community policy modeling and analysis efforts, and to provide a group of examples of applications of modeling.

Author Biography

Daniel M. Otto is Professor of Economics at Iowa State University.

Steven C. Deller is a Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Thomas G. Johnson is the Frank Miller Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director of the Community Policy Analysis Center at the University of Missouri-Columbia.

Table of Contents

Contributors	xiii
Foreword	xv
Acknowledgments	xviii
Introduction to Community Policy Analysis Modeling	3	(14)
Thomas G. Johnson
Daniel M. Otto
Steven C. Deller
Introduction	3	(1)
A History of Community and Regional Policy Analysis Models	4	(3)
The Challenges	7	(5)
Economic and Demographic Indicators	9	(1)
Fiscal Indicators	10	(1)
Social and Environmental Indicators	11	(1)
Organization of This Book	12	(3)
Summary	15	(2)
New Governance and the Changing Face of Rural America	17	(14)
James K. Scott
Thomas G. Johnson
Introduction	17	(2)
The Changing Economy	19	(3)
Technological Change	19	(2)
Globalization	21	(1)
Localization	21	(1)
Changing Demographics	22	(2)
Migration to Rural Communities	22	(1)
Aging of the Population	23	(1)
Settlement Patterns	23	(1)
New Governance	24	(3)
Devolution	24	(1)
Privatization	25	(1)
Performance-Based Government	25	(1)
Decentralization of Decision Making	26	(1)
Conclusions	27	(4)
Policy Research	27	(1)
Technical Assistance	28	(1)
Reform of Local Government Statutes and Structures	28	(1)
Exchange of Best Practices	28	(1)
Policy Education	29	(2)
Patterns of Local Government Activities in the United States	31	(20)
Daniel M. Otto
David Swenson
Introduction	31	(1)
State and Local Governmental Structure	32	(4)
State and Local Finance: Spending and Revenue Sources	36	(12)
Local Government Expenditure Patterns	38	(5)
Local Government Revenues	43	(5)
Conclusions	48	(3)
A National Infrastructure for Community Policy Analysis	51	(6)
James K. Scott
Thomas G. Johnson
Introduction	51	(1)
The Current Community Policy Analysis Infrastructure	52	(1)
Infrastructure Characteristics	53	(3)
Learning Community	53	(1)
Communication	53	(1)
Research Support	53	(1)
Training	54	(1)
Program Development	54	(1)
Policy Interface	54	(1)
States and Local Partners	54	(1)
The Rural Policy Research Institute	55	(1)
Conclusions	56	(1)
The Philosophy Underlying Community Policy Models	57	(28)
Martin Shields
Introduction	57	(1)
The What and Why of Regional Modeling	58	(1)
Art versus' Science in Regional Economic Modeling	59	(2)
Theoretical Purity as a Criterion for Regional Economic Models	59	(1)
Statistical Rigor as a Criterion for Regional Economic Models	60	(1)
Simulation Performance as a Criterion for Regional Economic Models	61	(1)
National and Regional Income and Product Accounts: A Starting Point	61	(2)
Three ``Pure'' Modeling Approaches	63	(18)
General Equilibrium Theory and Regional Modeling	64	(6)
Regional Input-Output Modeling	70	(3)
Keynesian Theory and Regional Modeling	73	(7)
Hybrids: Integrating Input-Output and Econometric Models	80	(1)
Summary	81	(1)
Notes	82	(3)
Modeling the Local Labor Market	85	(12)
Thomas G. Johnson
Introduction	85	(1)
Toward a Spatial Labor Market Theory	86	(7)
A Simple Island Economy	88	(2)
A Conceptual Labor Market Model	90	(3)
Estimating Spatial Labor Markets	93	(2)
Conclusions	95	(1)
Note	96	(1)
Modeling the Public Sector	97	(22)
Steven C. Deller
Introduction	97	(1)
Challenges of Modeling the Public Sector	98	(4)
Tiebout's Solution	102	(2)
A Stylized Model of Local Public Markets	104	(12)
Determinants of Supply	105	(2)
Determinants of Demand	107	(3)
Limitations and Additional Insights	110	(2)
Bureaucratic Model	112	(1)
Flypaper Effects	113	(1)
Fiscal Illusion	114	(1)
An Alternative Approach	115	(1)
Conclusions	116	(1)
Notes	117	(2)
The Show Me Community Policy Analysis Model	119	(12)
Thomas G. Johnson
James K. Scott
Introduction	119	(1)
The Elements of a Community Policy Analysis System	119	(2)
How the Show Me Model Works	121	(8)
Labor Market Estimation	121	(1)
Expansion Method	122	(1)
The Estimated Labor Market Model	123	(1)
Fiscal Impact Module	123	(3)
The Estimated Fiscal Model	126	(3)
Show Me Model Application	129	(1)
Conclusions	129	(2)
The Iowa Economic/Fiscal Impact Modeling System	131	(16)
David Swenson
Daniel M. Otto
Introduction	131	(1)
The Structure of the Model	132	(7)
Labor Market	133	(3)
Fiscal Impact Equations	136	(3)
Issues in Constructing Community Models	139	(6)
Conclusions	145	(1)
Notes	146	(1)
The Great Basin Fiscal Impact Model	147	(20)
Thomas R. Harris
J. Scott Shonkwiler
George E. Ebai
Peter Janson
Introduction	147	(1)
BEA Economic Areas	148	(3)
Model Development	151	(1)
Expenditure and Revenue Module	152	(2)
Results	154	(8)
Total County Expenditures	155	(2)
Federal Government Intergovernmental Revenues	157	(1)
State Government Intergovernmental Revenues	158	(2)
County Government Funds from Taxable Sources	160	(1)
County Government Funds from Nontaxable Sources	161	(1)
Population Estimation	162	(1)
Example Application	162	(3)
Nevada County Expected Total Expenditures	162	(1)
Nevada County Expected Federal Government Intergovernmental Revenues	163	(1)
Nevada County Expected State Government Intergovernmental Revenues	163	(1)
Nevada County Government Funds from Taxable Sources	163	(1)
Nevada County Government Funds from Nontaxable Sources	164	(1)
Nevada County Population	164	(1)
Conclusions	165	(1)
Notes	165	(2)
Safesim: The Small Area Fiscal Estimation Simulator	167	(14)
Garen K. Evans
Judith I. Stallmann
Introduction	167	(1)
Model Development	168	(4)
Stochastic Elements	172	(4)
Using Equation Error	172	(2)
Initial Impact Variability	174	(2)
Business Failure Module	176	(2)
Combining Impact Uncertainties	178	(1)
Summary	179	(2)
Data Issues	181	(14)
Anna M. Cox
David Swenson
Introduction	181	(1)
Common Data Issues	181	(2)
Key Federal Data Providers	183	(3)
U.S. Census Bureau---www.census.gov	183	(2)
Bureau of Economic Analysis---www.bea.doc.gov	185	(1)
Bureau of Labor Statistics---www.bls.gov	185	(1)
Key State Data Providers	186	(1)
Data Needed for Community Policy Analysis Modeling	186	(7)
Labor Force Data	186	(1)
Commuting Data	187	(2)
Spatial Data	189	(3)
Social, Economic, and Physical Data	192	(1)
Local Government Finance Data	192	(1)
Notes	193	(2)
Software Development and Utilization	195	(12)
David Swenson
Martin Shields
Introduction	195	(1)
Choosing the Software	196	(2)
Designing the Structure	198	(8)
Data Sets	198	(1)
Predicted Values	198	(1)
Coefficients	198	(2)
Lookup Functions	200	(1)
Scenarios	201	(1)
Formulas	202	(1)
Reports	203	(3)
Summary	206	(1)
Evaluating the Performance of Community Policy Models	207	(14)
Anna E. Kovalyova
Thomas G. Johnson
Introduction	207	(1)
Stages of Model Validation	208	(1)
Techniques for Evaluating Forecasts	209	(3)
Grand Average Simulation Error	211	(1)
Comparison with Naive Model	212	(1)
Additional Criteria for Model Evaluation	212	(1)
Validating the Missouri Show Me Model	212	(2)
Empirical Evaluation of the Show Me Model Performance	214	(4)
Show Me Model Performance	215	(3)
Conclusions	218	(1)
Notes	219	(2)
Scenario Development in Community Policy Analysis Models: When Is a Cost Actually a Benefit?	221	(20)
Mark S. Henry
David L. Barkley
Steven C. Deller
Introduction	221	(1)
What Can COMPAS-Type Impact Analyses Do?	221	(1)
Conversion of a Project into the Accounting Framework of the Model	222	(4)
How Do Local Employment Shocks Affect Community Population Change?	223	(3)
Scenario Example: The Impact of Alternative Economic Development and Land-Use Options	226	(13)
The Wisconsin Economic Impact Modeling System	230	(2)
The Case Study and Scenarios	232	(1)
Scenario Results	233	(6)
Conclusions	239	(1)
Notes	240	(1)
Applications of Community Policy Analysis Models: Three Case Studies	241	(20)
Steven C. Deller
Introduction	241	(2)
A Framework for Using COMPAS Models in Local Education Programs	243	(3)
Selected Applications	246	(13)
Retirement Migration, Wisconsin	246	(1)
Copper Mine, Crandon, Wisconsin	247	(1)
Wind Turbine Farm, Pecos, Texas	248	(1)
Cheese Plant and Dairy Farms, Panhandle, Texas	249	(1)
Allegheny National Forest, Warren, Pennsylvania	250	(1)
Mushroom Farming, Chester, Pennsylvania	251	(1)
Tax Increment Financing, Kirksville, Missouri	252	(2)
Long Branch Lake, Missouri	254	(1)
A Comparison-Contrast of Three Alternative Land Uses	254	(5)
Conclusions and Future Directions	259	(1)
Note	260	(1)
References	261	(14)
Index	275