Preface | p. iii |
Figures | p. ix |
Tables | p. xiii |
Summary | p. xv |
Acknowledgments | p. xxi |
Acronyms | p. xxiii |
Introduction | p. 1 |
Origins of This Study | p. 3 |
Study Scope | p. 4 |
Approach | p. 6 |
Describe the Present Military Aircraft Industry and Apparent Trends That Might Lead to a Changed Industry Structure in the Future | p. 6 |
Develop a Methodology for Examining the Relationship Between Competition and Innovation | p. 7 |
Assess Future Prospects for Innovation and Competition in the Military Aircraft Industry | p. 8 |
Identify Policy Options Open to the Department of Defense | p. 8 |
Organization of the Report | p. 8 |
An Evolving Military Aircraft Industry | p. 11 |
Historical Perspective on Industry Structure and Consolidation | p. 11 |
Recent Patterns of Demand for Military Aircraft | p. 17 |
Defining Industry Capabilities | p. 24 |
A Minimum Viable Firm in the 1990s | p. 24 |
Recent Changes Affecting Industry Structure and Capabilities | p. 27 |
Implications of Change for a Minimum Viable Organization | p. 35 |
Summary of Industry Evolution and Capabilities | p. 38 |
Innovation in the Aircraft Industrial Base: Past Performance and Current Prospects | p. 39 |
What Drives Innovation? | p. 40 |
Evidence on the Trends and Present Level of Support for Innovation in the Military Aircraft Industry | p. 42 |
National Factors | p. 43 |
Status and Attractiveness | p. 44 |
Support Industries | p. 47 |
R&D | p. 47 |
Demand Conditions | p. 54 |
Competition | p. 56 |
Summary Observations | p. 59 |
What Might the Industry Look Like in the Future? | p. 61 |
Base Case | p. 63 |
Some Alternative Future Programs | p. 68 |
Near Term | p. 69 |
Additional UAV Programs | p. 73 |
A Major Combat Aircraft | p. 76 |
Summary Observations | p. 77 |
Some Risk-Reduction Measures | p. 81 |
Split F-35 Production | p. 81 |
Fund Advanced Design Projects | p. 83 |
A Comparison of Policy Options | p. 85 |
Evaluation of Policy Options | p. 88 |
Final Thoughts | p. 90 |
Description of Data Sets and Budget Activities Related to Figures 3.5, 3.7, and 3.8 | p. 95 |
Bibliography | p. 99 |
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