A Composite Approach to Air Force Mid- and Long-Term Planning

by Davis, Paul K.; Khalilzad, Zalmay

• ISBN13: 9780833024336
• ISBN10: 0833024337
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1996-12-23
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

After the 1996 Presidential election, the DoD will probably conduct a major review of national military strategy and the current basis of force planning, the Bottom Up Review. In preparation for this review, what issues should the Air Force consider, what plannning methods should be brought to bear, and when? The authors address these questions and note that there is no single best planning method.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii	(4)
Figures	vii	(2)
Tables	ix	(2)
Summary	xi	(6)
Acknowledgments	xvii	(2)
Abbreviations	xix
1. INTRODUCTION	1	(2)
Objectives	1	(1)
Approach	1	(2)
2. BACKGROUND: GENERIC MODELS OF PLANNING	3	(10)
A Simple, Linear Model	3	(1)
Recognizing Uncertainty	3	(4)
Learning and Adaptation	7	(2)
A Comparison Model	9	(1)
Discussion	10	(3)
3. FORCE PLANNING IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE	13	(3)
An Overview of National Security Planning Activities	13	(1)
A Process-Model for Planning Strategies and Resources	13	(3)
General Considerations	13	(1)
Long-Range Planning	14	(2)
4. SUGGESTED METHODS FOR AIR FORCE PLANNING	16	(23)
Methods to Encourage Creative Thinking About Objectives and Strategies	16	(9)
High-Level Structuring	16	(1)
Uncertainty-Sensitive Planning	17	(2)
Alternative Futures (a.k.a. Future-Oriented Scenario-Based Planning) and Technology Forecasts	19	(2)
Out-of-the-Box Gaming	21	(2)
Assumption-Based Planning	23	(2)
Methods for Structuring and Managing	25	(6)
Objective-Based Planning	25	(2)
Mission-Pull Planning	27	(2)
Concept Action Groups	29	(2)
Assessing Alternatives and Integrating: Moving to a Plan	31	(8)
Threat-Based Planning (Scenario-Based Planning)	31	(1)
Adaptive Planning (Capabilities-Based Planning)	31	(1)
Scenario-Space Contingency Analysis	32	(2)
Planning Scenarios for Management: "Stressful Scenario Sets"	34	(1)
Choice-Oriented Systems Analysis	34	(1)
Strategic Protfolio Analysis	35	(1)
Strategically Adaptive Planning	35	(1)
Affordability Analysis	36	(2)
Organizational Viability Analysis	38	(1)
5. COMPARISON OF METHODS	39	(6)
Factors Influencing Choice of Methods	39	(1)
Comparisons	39	(3)
Conclusions and Recommendations	42	(3)
Appendix: COMMON PITFALLS OF STRATEGIC PLANNING	45	(2)
Bibliography	47