9780833058652

Coping With a Nuclearizing Iran

by ; ; ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780833058652

  • ISBN10:

    0833058657

  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2011-12-12
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
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Supplemental Materials

What is included with this book?

Summary

Some time in the coming decade, Iran will probably acquire nuclear weapons or the capacity to quickly produce them. This monograph provides a midterm strategy for dealing with Iran that neither begins nor ends at the point at which Tehran acquires a nuclear weapon capability. It proposes an approach that neither acquiesces to a nuclear-armed Iran nor refuses to admit the possibility, indeed, the likelihood of this occurring.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Summaryp. ix
Acknowledgmentsp. xxiii
Abbreviationsp. xxv
Introductionp. 1
U.S. Interests, Objectives, and Strategiesp. 3
Long History of Mutual Grievancesp. 4
Ups and Downs in the Relationshipp. 6
Iran's Interests, Objectives, and Strategiesp. 9
Iranian Views of the United Statesp. 11
Iranian Factional Interestsp. 12
Ideological Opposition to the United Statesp. 16
The Revolutionary Guardsp. 20
Iran's Future Nuclear Posturep. 24
Conclusionp. 27
The Other Actorsp. 29
The Gulf Cooperation Council Statesp. 30
Key Areas of U.S. Leveragep. 39
Israelp. 42
Halting Iran's Nuclear Capabilitiesp. 42
Constraining Iran's Regional Influencep. 44
Influencing Iran's Internal Political Evolutionp. 44
Turkeyp. 50
Syriap. 56
Iraqp. 59
Chinap. 61
Russiap. 63
Europep. 66
Conclusionp. 68
U.S. Instruments and Iranian Vulnerabilitiesp. 71
Diplomacyp. 71
Third-Party Intermediariesp. 72
Multilateral Diplomacyp. 74
Direct U.S.-Iranian Dialoguep. 75
Iran's Political System and U.S. Diplomacyp. 78
Sanctionsp. 79
Covert Actionp. 84
Soft Powerp. 86
The Military Optionp. 89
Halting Iran's Nuclear Programp. 90
Moderating Iranian External Behaviorp. 90
Influencing Iran's Internal Evolutionp. 91
Conclusionp. 91
Policy Alternativesp. 93
Engagementp. 94
Containmentp. 95
Preemptionp. 96
Deterrencep. 97
Normalizationp. 98
Regime Changep. 99
Conclusionp. 99
Coping with a Nuclearizing Iranp. 101
Containment Plusp. 103
Deterrencep. 104
Sanctionsp. 106
Engagementp. 107
Soft Powerp. 108
Bibliographyp. 111
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