Crashes, Crises, and Calamities

by Fisher, Len

• ISBN13: 9780465021024
• ISBN10: 0465021026
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-03-29
• Publisher: Basic Books

Summary

Why do certain civilizations, societies, and ecosystems collapse? How does the domino effect relate to the credit crunch? When can mathematics help explain marriage? And how on earth do toads predict earthquakes? The future is uncertain. But science can help foretell what lies ahead. Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, Crashes, Crises, and Calamitiesoffers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. In accessible prose, Len Fisher demonstrates how we can foresee and manage events that might otherwise catch us by surprise. At the cutting edge of science, Fisher helps us find ways to act before a full-fledged catastrophe is upon us. Crashes, Crises, and Calamitiesis a witty and informative exploration of the chaos, complexity, and patterns of our daily lives.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	p. ix
A User's Guide to This Book	p. xi
Introduction: How Do Toads Predict Earthquakes?	p. xiii
A Potted Pre-History of Prognostication
Do Animals Have Crystal Balls?	p. 3
The Future Eclipsed	p. 15
Galileo's Hell	p. 25
How Disasters Happen
The Stress of It All	p. 35
Runaway Disaster	p. 53
The Balance of Nature and the Nature of Balance	p. 71
Imminent Catastrophes: Reading the Signs
The Chaotic Ecology of Dragons	p. 95
Teetering on the Brink of Catastrophe	p. 109
Models and Supermodels	p. 123
Beware of Mathematicians	p. 135
Weak Signals as Major Early-Warning Signs	p. 151
Summary: The Future of Forecasting	p. 169
Notes	p. 171
Index	p. 219
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