The use of crop-soil modelling has so far been mainly confined to the research community. Practical applications have occurred in the areas of decision tools for irrigation studies and pest management. However, there is potential to increase its applied use.This book reviews progress in crop-soil simulation modelling and assesses its application to agriculture in developing countries. It is based on work sponsored by the Natural Resources Systems Programme of the UK Department for International Development.

Contributors

ix

Abbreviations

x

Preface

xiii

Introduction

1

(6)

Robin Matthews

Part 1: Models as tools in research

7

(86)

Models as Research Tools

9

(4)

Robin Matthews

Crop Genotype Improvement

13

(16)

Robin Matthews

Identification and Evaluation of Desirable Plant Characteristics

14

(5)

Environmental Characterization

19

(3)

G x E Interactions

22

(7)

Crop Management

29

(26)

Robin Matthews

Yield Gap Analysis

29

(4)

Soil Surface Management

33

(1)

Planting

33

(4)

Water Management

37

(4)

Nutrient Management

41

(6)

Pest and Disease Management

47

(2)

Weed Management

49

(4)

Harvesting

53

(2)

Cropping and Farming Systems

55

(14)

Robin Matthews

New Crops and Cropping Systems

55

(3)

Evaluating Sustainability

58

(5)

Farm Household Models

63

(6)

Regional and National Planning

69

(10)

Robin Matthews

Linear Programming Approaches

70

(4)

Dynamic Simulation Approaches

74

(2)

Limitations

76

(1)

Impact

77

(2)

Global Level Processes

79

(14)

Robin Matthews

Reiner Wassmann

Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production

80

(6)

Greenhouse Gas Production

86

(4)

The EI Nino-Southern Oscillation

90

(3)

Part 2: Models as decision-support tools

93

(56)

Decision Theory and Decision Support Systems

95

(10)

William Stephens

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions

95

(1)

Characteristics of Decision Making

95

(2)

Definitions of Decision Support Systems

97

(4)

Spatial and Temporal Scale

101

(1)

Application

102

(3)

Tools to Support Operational Decision Making

105

(12)

William Stephens

Tabitha Middleton

Pest Management

105

(4)

Irrigation Scheduling

109

(3)

Optimizing Fertilizer Application

112

(1)

Multiple Decision Support

113

(1)

Deciding whether to Implement Emergency Relief

114

(3)

Tools to Support Strategic Decision Making

117

(12)

William Stephens

Tabitha Middleton

Land-use Planning

117

(3)

Planning for Climate Change

120

(1)

Crop Forecasting

121

(2)

Irrigation Planning

123

(1)

Assessing the Benefit of Proposed New Technologies

124

(1)

Planning Optimum Farm Management Strategies in Collaboration with Extension Services and Farmers

125

(4)

Why has the Uptake of Decision Support Systems been so Poor?

129

(20)

William Stephens

Tabitha Middleton

Model Construction Constraints

132

(4)

Marketing and Support Constraints

136

(5)

Technical and Operational Constraints

141

(2)

User Constraints

143

(1)

Other Constraints

144

(1)

Criteria for Success of Decision Support Systems

145

(1)

Risks Associated with using Decision Support Systems

146

(3)

Part 3: Models as tools in education and training

149

(34)

Using Models as Tools in Education and Training

151

(32)

Anil Graves

Tim Hess

Robin Matthews

Introduction

151

(1)

Using Existing Simulation Models

152

(11)

Model Building

163

(2)

Transferring the Systems Approach to Less-developed Countries

165

(8)

Considerations for Education and Training

173

(5)

Limitations and Constraints of Models in the Educational Context

178

(5)

Part 4: Have crop models been useful?

183

(24)

Who are Models Targetted at?

185

(10)

Robin Matthews

Researchers

186

(1)

Consultants

187

(1)

Educators and Trainers

188

(1)

Policy Makers

189

(1)

Extensionists

190

(1)

Farmers

191

(4)

Impacts of Crop-Soil Models

195

(12)

Robin Matthews

William Stephens

Tim Hess

Limitations to Use

195

(1)

Constraints to the Uptake of Crop Models

196

(2)

Characteristics for Impact

198

(7)

Concluding Remarks

205

(2)

Part 5: The way forward

207

(28)

Where to Now with Crop Modelling?

209

(22)

Robin Matthews

Modelling Rural Livelihoods

211

(6)

Contribution to Crop Improvement Programmes

217

(2)

Making Information Available - Decision Support Systems

219

(2)

Integrating Model Use into Research and Extension Projects

221

(3)

Environmental Research

224

(2)

Building Modelling Capacity

226

(1)

Further Crop-Soil Model Development

227

(2)

Summary

229

(2)

Concluding Remarks

231

(4)

Robin Matthews

William Stephens

References

235

(32)

Appendix: Personal Communications

267

(4)

Index

271

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